Vasiliy Lomachenko vs George Kambosos Jr. Picks, Predictions, and Odds: Lomachenko Has Arm Raised

The vacant IBF lightweight title fight between Vasiliy Lomachenko and George Kambosos Jr. is the featured attraction for tonight's round of boxing betting. 

This fight comes at a critical juncture in both fighters’ careers. Legitimacy and legacy are on the line for both men, though the legendary Lomachenko might have more in the tank.

Here are my free Lomachenko vs. Kambosos Jr. predictions from RAC Arena in Perth, Australia.

Lomachenko vs Kambosos Jr. prediction and pick

• My fight prediction
  Lomachenko ML (-650 at DraftKings)
  
  
• My best bet
  Lomachenko by decision (-175 at DraftKings)

Fight analysis

So much has been said about the brilliance of Lomachenko over the years. Still, as reality creeps in, the same contingency that fawns over his perceived mastery doesn’t want to acknowledge the fact he's getting old. Now 36 with two Olympic gold medals, a 400-fight amateur career, and a pro career where he became a three-division champion, we’re starting to see the wheels come out from under him. 

Lomachenko is also coming off a narrow points defeat to Devin Haney where he gave up too many of the early rounds as Haney's cadence threw him off. He suffered a similar defeat, albeit more defined, against Teofimo Lopez in 2020.

Those fighters could give Lomachenko fits because they had a tight game plan and refused to give him the middle range where he often operates — keeping him on the outside until he was forced to take chances to salvage the fight.

Lopez and Haney’s excellent boxing skills were always going to be a tough match for Lomachenko, whose twitchy style has often worked best on straight-forward pressure fighters. Lucky for him, Kambosos Jr. is the right kind of fighter for him to look like he’s turned back the clock a few years.

Though Kambosos beat Lopez in a shocking upset in 2021, he coughed up the title in back-to-back losses to Haney, where he barely managed to win one round across two fights. He earned this title fight after being on the good end of a bad decision against journeyman Maxie Hughes last year.

If anyone can make Lomachenko look like he’s found the fountain of youth, albeit for one night, it will be the rudimentary and basic Kambosos. Expect a marvelous performance from Lomachenko as he regains a portion of the lightweight title.

Best best analysis

Lomachenko is not the biggest lightweight, and he often comes into the ring with a size disadvantage compared to most. He is still agile and quick but has to land a lot of leather and put himself in risky positions to try and chase a knockout. We’ve seen Lomachenko start slower than normal, with the Lopez and Haney fights seeing him practically idle for the first five or six rounds and his near-miss against Jamaine Ortiz in 2022. 

Those fighters were able to keep him at bay with a strong jab and utilized their size when they crowded him, targeting his body. Even though he coughed up those early rounds, he'd be fully warmed up and hard to fight off in the back end. Kambosos is going to be right there for him to strike, counter, and reset on for the entire fight, particularly because he doesn’t possess the power or the ring generalship to prevent Lomachenko from finding his range and using his excellent footwork.

This won’t mirror the Haney fight. Lomachenko will have an easy target to hit, and even if he does coast in the early rounds, his intelligence and punch selection will have Kambosos swinging at the air and looking outclassed from the beginning. Once Lomachenko gets going, Kambosos won’t have the firepower to salvage the fight, and he’ll lose by a lopsided decision. 

Vasiliy Lomachenko vs George Kambosos Jr. odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of 5-11.

Vasiliy Lomachenko vs George Kambosos Jr. tale of the tape

Pages related to this topic