UFC Fight Night Ribas vs Namajunas Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Rose Grows from Concrete

Amanda Ribas will face Rose Namajunas in the main event for UFC Fight Night betting tonight. Namajunas is the former strawweight champion, but she's on a two-fight skid, and this bout will take place at flyweight. Ribas has also struggled to string together wins, but she always puts on a show.

UFC odds opened with Namajunas as a -185 favorite, and money has poured in on the former champ, shifting her to -210, with Ribas now at +175. Here are my best free Ribas vs. Namajunas picks and predictions for March 23 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Amanda Ribas vs Rose Namajunas fight odds

Method of Victory	Ribas	Namajunas
To win outright	+175	-210
To win by KO/TKO	+875	+135
To win by points	+425	+275
To win by submission	+625	+1,200
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on March 23, 2024.

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Ribas vs Namajunas picks

Fight prediction: Namajunas ML

There are questions about Namajunas' mental focus after taking significant time away from the sport and returning only to decisively lose to Manon Fiorot last year. That said, Namajunas broke a finger early in that fight and she still took the final round despite facing a surging contender in Fiorot. 

Namajunas tends to struggle against bigger and more powerful fighters like Fiorot, who can bully her, but Ribas is also small for this weight class, having bounced between flyweight and strawweight. 

From a skills and resume perspective, Namajunas is on another level than Ribas. Although Ribas is coming off a spectacular knockout win against Luana Pinheiro, she was losing that fight until catching Pinheiro with a spinning kick in the third round.

With her pressure and volume, Ribas will try to outwork Namajunas. However, that aggressive style could bring out the best in Namajunas, who excels when she can lay traps with her crisp counter-striking.

Namajunas is the more technical striker with a better variety of weapons and sharper footwork. She is also very familiar with fighting in five-round bouts while this will be Ribas' first bout scheduled for more than 15 minutes. 

Prediction: Namajunas moneyline (-245 at bet99)

Fight best bet: Namajunas by Finish

I liked Namajunas at -185 on the moneyline earlier in the week, but with the line movement bringing her to -230, it seems a tad too steep, given her lack of fire in her last two fights. The best value now seems to be on betting on Namajunas inside the distance, and with this bout scheduled for 25 minutes in the smaller octagon at the Apex, that makes a finish more likely. 

Ribas doesn't have good head movement and can be a bit hittable due to her aggressive style. Her durability is also a question mark since she has been knocked out three times in her career. 

Namajunas doesn't have one-touch knockout power, but she does have pop in her shots and good finishing instincts when she hurts her opponents. She has picked up TKO wins against durable fighters like Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Zhang Weili, and she also has a dangerous grappling ability, with five of her 11 career victories coming by submission.

Pick: Namajunas by KO/TKO or submission (+105 at Bet99)

Ribas vs Namajunas betting preview

In a shining example of how shallow the women's divisions are, Amanda Ribas is the No. 8 ranked flyweight contender and also the No. 7 strawweight despite struggling to find consistency in either class. In her previous bout last November, Ribas knocked out Luana Pinheiro in the third round with a spinning kick to claim a Performance of the Night bonus.

The former Jungle Fight strawweight champ, Ribas is 7-3 in the octagon but has alternated wins and losses in her last six fights. The 30-year-old is a high-volume striker who likes to push the pace and isn't afraid to get in a brawl. 

Rose Namajunas is at No. 8 in the women's pound-for-pound rankings but isn't ranked in any weight class since she lost in her flyweight debut last September. The former two-time strawweight champion, "Thug" Rose became a fan favorite for exciting victories against high-caliber fighters such as Jędrzejczyk, Zhang, and Jessica Andrade.

However, Namajunas lost her belt in a snoozer of a performance against Carla Esparza in 2022, where neither fighter did anything. After taking 16 months off, she moved up to the 125-pound division, where she lost to Fiorot by unanimous decision.

Namajunas has crisp technical boxing with vicious kicks and dangerous submissions. That said, her wrestling is subpar and she can be overpowered by stronger opponents. 

Amanda Ribas vs Rose Namajunas tale of the tape

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