UFC 299 Prelim Picks and Predictions: Blaydes-Almeida is Finally Here

UFC 299 is tonight at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. The event features a bantamweight title grudge match as Sean O'Malley defends his title against Marlon Vera. Additionally, the BMF title is on the line in a lightweight war between Justin Gaethje and Benoit St. Denis, and fans are eagerly anticipating the UFC debut of Michael 'Venom' Page against Kevin Holland.

The preliminary card is exceptionally strong, with promising matchups in the UFC odds. We anticipate impactful performances from fighters like Robelis Despaigne and Kyler Phillips. Moreover, the long-delayed showdown between Curtis Blaydes and Jailton Almeida is set to add another layer of excitement.

Here are my free picks from the UFC 299 preliminaries in Miami.

UFC 299 prelim picks and predictions

Despaigne vs. Parisian
• Prediction: Despaigne ML (-330 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+225 at Bet99)

Munhoz vs. Phillips
• Prediction: Phillips ML (-220 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Phillips by decision (-115 at Bet99)

Blaydes vs. Almeida
• Prediction: Blaydes ML (-110 at Bet99)
• Best Bet: Fight goes the distance (+175 at Bet99)

Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.

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UFC 299 prelim odds and picks

Robelis Despaigne vs Josh Parisian fight odds

Method of Victory	Despaigne	Parisian
To win outright	-370	+270
To win by KO/TKO	-300	+450
To win by decision	+2,100	+1,150
To win by submission	+1,800	+1,000
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on March 9, 2024.

A 2012 Olympian, Robelis Despaigne is in the infancy of his MMA career, and the heavy-handed Cuban is matched up with the heavyweight division's resident journeyman Josh Parisian for what should be a destructive debut. All four of Despaigne's wins have been first-round knockouts, and Parisian is currently on a two-fight skid against low-tier opposition. We've seen Parisian have his moments in the past, but we know exactly what to expect from him by now.

Parisian is durable enough to give Despaigne enough pause in the first round to make it into the second but the Miami crowd will be fiercely behind the promotional debutant. Bet it going Over 1.5 rounds.

Prediction: Robelis Despaigne moneyline (-330 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+225 at Bet99)

Pedro Munhoz vs Kyler Phillips fight odds

Method of Victory	Munhoz	Phillips
To win outright	+175	-225
To win by KO/TKO	+730	+550
To win by decision	+350	-115
To win by submission	+1,250	+1,100
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on March 9, 2024.

If left unchecked, Pedro Munhoz can bang and make noise like loose change in the dryer. Along with his propensity for violence, Munhoz is also easy to hit and slow to adjust, which is why he's only had one win in three years. Kyler Phillips has a significant seven-inch reach advantage, and his style is tailored to fight on the outside, utilizing plenty of movement, and he doesn't make costly mistakes.

Munhoz needs to get inside Phillips' reach to make something happen, but by the time he gets there, Phillips will have already scored his shots and will reset his positioning. Eventually, the punishment will mount on a frustrated Munhoz, who will have little recourse aside from desperately looking for a momentum-changing moment as the fight slips away. Phillips should win a comfortable decision.

Prediction: Kyler Phillips moneyline (-220 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Phillips to win by decision (-115 at Bet99)

Curtis Blaydes vs Jailton Almeida fight odds

Method of Victory	Blaydes	Almeida
To win outright	+105	-130
To win by KO/TKO	+225	+425
To win by decision	+350	+450
To win by submission	+6,000	+275
Draw	+2,500	+2,500

Odds courtesy of Bet99 on March 9, 2024.

The fact that this long-awaited clash between two top heavyweights is on the preliminary card speaks to how strong the main card is. Curtis Blaydes and Jailton Almeida have been in each other's orbit for what seems to be an eternity, but injuries and other issues have prevented this fight from happening. If Almeida has the goods, this fight will prove it, although I have doubts he'll overcome Blaydes' size and striking advantages.

From a 'what have you done for me lately' perspective, Almeida looks to have something going for him, but Blaydes is still good enough to hang with the best heavyweights despite his recent losses to Tom Aspinall and Sergei Pavlovich. Blaydes is likely to neutralize Almeida's grappling, if not completely overtake him if he commits to it, and Almeida's striking isn't anything to write home about.

Blaydes is still the better fighter despite his setbacks, so he's the pick. As far as the best bet goes, I'm going with this bout between two grapplers being methodically paced, and I expect it to go the full distance.

Prediction: Curtis Blaydes moneyline (-110 at Bet99)
Best Bet: Fight will go the distance (+175 at Bet99)

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