SF 7.0 o47.0
LA -7.0 u47.0
MIN -3.5 o36.0
CLE 3.5 u36.0
DAL -2.5 o46.5
NYJ 2.5 u46.5
DEN 3.5 o43.5
PHI -3.5 u43.5
HOU -1.0 o40.0
BAL 1.0 u40.0
NYG 2.5 o42.0
NO -2.5 u42.0
LV 7.0 o48.5
IND -7.0 u48.5
MIA -1.0 o44.5
CAR 1.0 u44.5
TB 3.5 o44.5
SEA -3.5 u44.5
TEN 7.5 o41.5
ARI -7.5 u41.5
WAS 3.0 o48.0
LAC -3.0 u48.0
DET -10.5 o49.5
CIN 10.5 u49.5
NE 8.0 o49.5
BUF -8.0 u49.5
KC -3.5 o45.5
JAC 3.5 u45.5
New York 4th AFC East0-4
Miami 3rd AFC East1-3
ESPN

New York @ Miami Picks & Props

NYJ vs MIA Picks

NFL Picks
Rushing Yards
Breece Hall logo Breece Hall o56.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Jason Logan image
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst

Projections for Hall range from 55 yards to as high as 69 yards, but I think that could even be too low. The Jets new offense is dedicate to the run - and we saw that in Week 1. Hall rushed for 19 carries and 107 yards. But with the Jets falling behind big the past two weeks, New York has gone more pass-heavy than it would like. With a tight game (2.5-point spread) and a poor Miami defense - ranked 28th in run defense at PFF - I see Hall picking up where he left off in Week 1. I like his Over on rushing yards Monday night.

Receptions Made
Tyreek Hill logo Tyreek Hill u5.5 Receptions Made (-135)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Jeremy Jones image
Jeremy Jones
Betting Analyst

In the three games that Hill has faced Sauce Gardner, Hill has one reception for five yards on three targets with Gardner in coverage. That is only 10 coverage snaps, but with Gardner playing a shadow role this season, I expect him to be able to shut down Tyreek for much of the game. 

Rushing Yards
Malik Washington logo Malik Washington o4.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Jeremy Jones image
Jeremy Jones
Betting Analyst

Washington has six rush attempts this season with at least one in each game. He is averaging 8.7 yards per carry on those six attempts. He can easily clear this number with just one attempt. The Jets rank 23rd in run defense and have allowed the second-most attempts in the NFL this season. The Bills used a wide receiver in the run game in Week 2, and Elijah Moore had two carries for 6 yards. I love Washington here to get a crack at a carry or two.

Rushing Yards
Breece Hall logo Breece Hall o56.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
Jeremy Jones image
Jeremy Jones
Betting Analyst

The Miami Dolphins have allowed the eighth most yards before contact per carry to running backs through the first three weeks. The New York Jets running backs have averaged the seventh-highest yards before contact per carry. Hall will be able to get going before he sees a defender on him. 

Game Prop
New York Jets logo Miami Dolphins logo Both Teams to Score 20+ Points (Yes: +128)
Best Odds
Pick made: 4 days ago
Rohit Ponnaiya image
Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst

The Jets have surrendered 29+ points in every game this year while ranking 28th in the league in defensive EPA. Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa struggles against defenses that generate pressure but can move the ball when he has time to find his weapons. With the Jets second-last in the NFL in pressure rate (13.1%), expect Tua to get into a rhythm. As bad as the Jets have been on defense, the Dolphins have been even worse. They've given up 30+ points in every game while ranking dead-last in defensive EPA. The Jets are expected to get back QB Justin Fields whose mobility and athleticism will create problems for Miami's piss-poor stop unit. 

Score a Touchdown
Ollie Gordon II logo Ollie Gordon II Score a Touchdown (Yes: +300)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 days ago
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

It’s not too early to jump on this Monday night price for Ollie Gordon. He had four of the six red-zone carries last week against the Bills on TNF, including a touchdown from the 2-yard line on the opening drive. On that drive, he totaled four carries from the 21-yard line. Gordon is the red-zone back, with De'Von Achane handling work between the 20s. Jaylen Wright was back last week, but it was Gordon who got the goal-line work (four of nine carries inside the 20 in Week 3). Achane will need breaks since he’s carrying much of Miami’s offense, and Gordon showed he can execute when called upon in Week 3. That should build more trust in the rookie, especially in what looks like a close game on Monday night.

Receiving Yards
Darren Waller logo
Darren Waller o9.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 17.48 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
At the moment, the 8th-most pass-focused team in football (62.1% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Miami Dolphins.. When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, New York's unit has been lousy since the start of last season, ranking as the worst in football.
Receiving Yards
Garrett Wilson logo
Garrett Wilson o63.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Projection 73.51 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 days ago
EV Model Rating
The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Justin Fields.. With a top-tier 97.9% Route Participation% (99th percentile) since the start of last season, Garrett Wilson places among the wideouts with the highest volume in the NFL.. The model projects Garrett Wilson to total 9.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.. Garrett Wilson has accumulated a staggering 87.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among wideouts.. The Jets O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.
Receiving Yards
Tyreek Hill logo
Tyreek Hill u64.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 58.94 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Dolphins are predicted by our trusted projection set to call just 61.0 total plays in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.. Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) generally prompt lessened passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher ground volume.. Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the New York Jets, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 30.4 per game) since the start of last season.. The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.. Tyreek Hill has compiled quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (46.0) this year than he did last year (57.0).
Receiving Yards
Breece Hall logo
Breece Hall u21.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Projection 19.51 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
The New York Jets boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Tanner Engstrand, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 10.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).. Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Jets to pass on 50.5% of their chances: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The New York Jets have called the fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.4 plays per game.. Breece Hall has accumulated many fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (18.0) this season than he did last season (29.0).
Rushing Yards
Tua Tagovailoa logo
Tua Tagovailoa o1.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
Projection 3.78 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) generally prompt lessened passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher ground volume.. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, New York's collection of DEs has been terrible since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.
Rushing Yards
Justin Fields logo
Justin Fields u49.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
Projection 44.6 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Justin Fields.. The leading projections forecast this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 123.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The New York Jets have called the fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.4 plays per game.
Rushing Yards
De'Von Achane logo
De'Von Achane o55.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Projection 59.94 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being called for in this game) generally prompt lessened passing effectiveness, reduced pass volume, and higher ground volume.. After accounting for 46.4% of his offense's carries last season, De'Von Achane has played a bigger part in the ground game this season, now taking on 60.0%.. As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, New York's collection of DEs has been terrible since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.
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NYJ vs MIA Consensus Picks

View all Consensus Picks

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

Spread

62% picking Miami

38%
62%

Total Picks NYJ 716, MIA 1163

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NYJ
MIA

NYJ vs MIA Props

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

Justin Fields Score a Touchdown Props • N.Y. Jets

Justin Fields
J. Fields
quarterback QB • N.Y. Jets
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.48
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.48
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Justin Fields. The Jets O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest clip in football vs. the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season (73.4% Adjusted Completion%).

Justin Fields

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.48
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.48

The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Justin Fields. The Jets O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest clip in football vs. the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season (73.4% Adjusted Completion%).

Garrett Wilson Score a Touchdown Props • N.Y. Jets

Garrett Wilson
G. Wilson
wide receiver WR • N.Y. Jets
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.48
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.48
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Justin Fields. The predictive model expects Garrett Wilson to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack near the goal line in this game (34.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (20.0% in games he has played). Garrett Wilson has accumulated a staggering 87.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among wideouts. Garrett Wilson's 69.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in the NFL: 95th percentile for WRs. The Jets O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

Garrett Wilson

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.48
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.48

The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Justin Fields. The predictive model expects Garrett Wilson to be a more integral piece of his team's pass attack near the goal line in this game (34.9% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (20.0% in games he has played). Garrett Wilson has accumulated a staggering 87.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among wideouts. Garrett Wilson's 69.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in the NFL: 95th percentile for WRs. The Jets O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

Mason Taylor Score a Touchdown Props • N.Y. Jets

Mason Taylor
M. Taylor
tight end TE • N.Y. Jets
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.19
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.19
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Justin Fields. The Jets O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest clip in football vs. the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season (73.4% Adjusted Completion%).

Mason Taylor

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.19
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.19

The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Justin Fields. The Jets O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board. Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest clip in football vs. the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season (73.4% Adjusted Completion%).

Breece Hall Score a Touchdown Props • N.Y. Jets

Breece Hall
B. Hall
running back RB • N.Y. Jets
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.44
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.44
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Justin Fields. When talking about air yards, Breece Hall ranks in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards). The Jets O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board. The rushing touchdown column reads "0" on Breece Hall's box scores this year. The Dolphins defense has conceded the 10th-most touchdowns through the air in the league to running backs: 0.20 per game since the start of last season.

Breece Hall

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.44
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.44

The New York Jets may rely on the pass game less in this week's contest (and call more rushes) since they be rolling with backup quarterback Justin Fields. When talking about air yards, Breece Hall ranks in the lofty 94th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 3.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, this is much more impressive than it appears since most RBs have negative air yards). The Jets O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing attack stats across the board. The rushing touchdown column reads "0" on Breece Hall's box scores this year. The Dolphins defense has conceded the 10th-most touchdowns through the air in the league to running backs: 0.20 per game since the start of last season.

De'Von Achane Score a Touchdown Props • Miami

De'Von Achane
D. Achane
running back RB • Miami
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.67
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.67
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.9% red zone pass rate. The predictive model expects De'Von Achane to be a more important option in his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (19.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.1% in games he has played). With a fantastic rate of 0.50 per game through the air (100th percentile), De'Von Achane rates as one of the top receiving touchdown-scorers in the league when it comes to running backs this year. De'Von Achane has run for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest figures in the league among RBs (1st percentile).

De'Von Achane

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.67
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.67

The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.9% red zone pass rate. The predictive model expects De'Von Achane to be a more important option in his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (19.7% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.1% in games he has played). With a fantastic rate of 0.50 per game through the air (100th percentile), De'Von Achane rates as one of the top receiving touchdown-scorers in the league when it comes to running backs this year. De'Von Achane has run for 0.00 touchdowns per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest figures in the league among RBs (1st percentile).

Tyreek Hill Score a Touchdown Props • Miami

Tyreek Hill
T. Hill
wide receiver WR • Miami
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.44
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.44
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.9% red zone pass rate. Tyreek Hill has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 22.7% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 84th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. Tyreek Hill has accumulated a colossal 92.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among wideouts. Tyreek Hill slots into the 91st percentile when it comes to WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) with a remarkable 64.2 figure since the start of last season. With an excellent ratio of 0.25 per game through the air (76th percentile), Tyreek Hill rates among the top receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to WRs this year.

Tyreek Hill

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.44
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.44

The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.9% red zone pass rate. Tyreek Hill has been a big part of his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 22.7% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 84th percentile when it comes to wide receivers. Tyreek Hill has accumulated a colossal 92.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among wideouts. Tyreek Hill slots into the 91st percentile when it comes to WR WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) with a remarkable 64.2 figure since the start of last season. With an excellent ratio of 0.25 per game through the air (76th percentile), Tyreek Hill rates among the top receiving touchdown-scorers in the NFL when it comes to WRs this year.

Darren Waller Score a Touchdown Props • Miami

Darren Waller
D. Waller
tight end TE • Miami
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.13
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.13
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.9% red zone pass rate.

Darren Waller

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.13
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.13

The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.9% red zone pass rate.

Tua Tagovailoa Score a Touchdown Props • Miami

Tua Tagovailoa
T. Tagovailoa
quarterback QB • Miami
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.9% red zone pass rate. Tua Tagovailoa is not a mobile QB and has accounted for a lowly 0.0% of his offense's rush attempts in the red zone this year, ranking him in the 3rd percentile among quarterbacks. Tua Tagovailoa has been among the leading TD passers in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 1.25 per game while checking in at the 75th percentile. 0: the number of touchdowns on the ground Tua Tagovailoa has scored this year.

Tua Tagovailoa

Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0

The leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 58.9% red zone pass rate. Tua Tagovailoa is not a mobile QB and has accounted for a lowly 0.0% of his offense's rush attempts in the red zone this year, ranking him in the 3rd percentile among quarterbacks. Tua Tagovailoa has been among the leading TD passers in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 1.25 per game while checking in at the 75th percentile. 0: the number of touchdowns on the ground Tua Tagovailoa has scored this year.

Tyrod Taylor Score a Touchdown Props • N.Y. Jets

Tyrod Taylor
T. Taylor
quarterback QB • N.Y. Jets
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.00
(Season avg.)
Best Odds
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Season Avg.
0.00
Best Odds

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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