wtfe

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wtfe
College Football > FadeSystem NCAAF Week 13 (YTD: 82-60 +39.45u) > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by wtfe:


  4u Texas A&M -22
  2u North Carolina -24.5
  3u Akron +18.5
  4u Florida +8
  1u Florida ML +255



4-1 +11.35u.

There weren't any more system plays yesterday and today. There were a couple leans (which went 1-1) but just wasn't the right line movement.

But a solid week for the system so I'll take it.



wtfe
College Football > FadeSystem NCAAF Week 13 (YTD: 82-60 +39.45u) > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by wtfe:


  3u Akron +18.5



Always good to start the week with a win.

Adding another system plays:

  4u Florida +8
  1u Florida ML +255

I almost fell out of my chair when I saw that line open. This game should be a pick em, give me the points all day.

Florida is playing for an outside chance at the BCS Title Game and FSU is playing for relevance. They couldn't move the ball against VaTech, don't see how it's gonna be any easier against that Gator defense. Think I'll ML the better team here.

wtfe
College Football > FadeSystem NCAAF Week 13 (YTD: 82-60 +39.45u) > View Post
System play:

  3u Akron +18.5


wtfe
College Football > FadeSystem NCAAF Week 13 (YTD: 82-60 +39.45u) > View Post
No. Plays are ON those teams. Just getting out ahead of line movement.

On the A&M play the off shores opened below 20 and they quickly moved in A&M's direction. On Top 10 teams, according to the system, there is a greater than 60% chance the top 10 will cover in that situation. Add to the fact that there is no way Mizzou will be able to stop Manziel, who is now playing for a Heisman, and this could get ugly real fast. My only concern is a backdoor cover from Mizzou on that line, but I don't expect Sumlin to completely shut it down like he did against Sam Houston St. This line could be 24 by kickoff, just trying to get the best numbers I can.

The UNC play is a fade on the Terps. There is no way to run an accurate system projection right now on Maryland because all the offensive stats are shot because they are on their 4th QB of the season, and the defensive stats are shot because so many of their starters are injured. UNC has been clicking on offense the last couple weeks, and they are at home. I'm not crazy about the number, that's why it's only a 2u play, but it's not gonna get any better so I'll just take it now.

wtfe
College Football > FadeSystem NCAAF Week 13 (YTD: 82-60 +39.45u) > View Post
2nd losing week in a row last week, system finished 3-3 -2u. Two of those losses were by one point...onto this week...

Early system plays:

  4u Texas A&M -22
  2u North Carolina -24.5

Like always, system plays will be posted in this thread as they show up. Leans on twitter.

BOL.



wtfe
College Football > FadeSystem NCAAF Week 12 (YTD: 79-57 +41.45u) > View Post
No more system plays today but if Ohio St and Clemson can hold looking at a solid day.

There is a strong system lean on Baylor +11.5, but I've made clear before my opinion about fading KSt; which is don't.

wtfe
College Football > FadeSystem NCAAF Week 12 (YTD: 79-57 +41.45u) > View Post
System plays for afternoon games:

  3u Wake Forest +24
  3u Ohio St. ML -103
  2u Clemson -15

wtfe
College Football > FadeSystem NCAAF Week 12 (YTD: 79-57 +41.45u) > View Post
Couple early system plays:

  3u Northwestern +7
  3u Mississippi St. -4



wtfe
College Football > FadeSystem NCAAF Week 12 (YTD: 79-57 +41.45u) > View Post
The system had an epic collapse on the late games Saturday and ended the week down 6 units.

One early play this week:

   5u Tennessee/Vandy Over 60

Wished I could've jumped on it when it was still 57, but damn my local.

System lean for tonight: Toledo +10.5 and the Over

BOL this week.



wtfe
College Basketball > FadeSystem CBB 11/12 (YTD: 4-7 -12.2u) > View Post
4u Young St/UGA Under 69.5 2h

wtfe
College Basketball > FadeSystem CBB 11/12 (YTD: 4-7 -12.2u) > View Post
System plays:

  3u Lamar +23
  2u Toledo +20.5
  2u Robert Morris +2.5

wtfe
College Basketball > FadeSystem CBB 11/12 (YTD: 4-7 -12.2u) > View Post
System plays:

  3u Buffalo +13
  2u Fairfield +9

wtfe
College Basketball > FadeSystem CBB 11/12 (YTD: 4-7 -12.2u) > View Post
2-2 +.4u yesterday.

Gotta trust that these numbers will return to normal. On the system trend I'm tracking I've got the public picking at 80% right now on non Top 25 games...there is no way that lasts.

Just gotta trust these numbers are gonna regress back to the mean.

System plays:

  3u Bowling Green +2.5
  2u Fordam +21.5

BOL.



wtfe
College Basketball > FadeSystem CBB 11/11 (YTD: 2-5 -12.6u) > View Post
4u Duquense/GTown Under 69.5 2h

wtfe
College Basketball > FadeSystem CBB 11/11 (YTD: 2-5 -12.6u) > View Post
System play:

  3u Loyola-MD +8.5

wtfe
College Basketball > FadeSystem CBB 11/11 (YTD: 2-5 -12.6u) > View Post
+14

wtfe
College Basketball > FadeSystem CBB 11/11 (YTD: 2-5 -12.6u) > View Post
System play:

  3u Duquesne

wtfe
College Basketball > FadeSystem CBB 11/11 (YTD: 2-5 -12.6u) > View Post
Had a pretty rough debut for the system going 2-5 Friday. I misread the numbers on a couple games and two of those shouldn't have been plays.

No plays showed up yesterday, the limited public action coupled with fewer lines this year is throwing off the system projections.

System play:

   3u Hofstra +18

wtfe
College Basketball > 2ND HALF WAGERS > View Post

wtfe
College Football > FadeSystem NCAAF Week 11 (YTD: 70-49 +47.5u) > View Post
I messed up on that NM St. play. It shouldn't have been a play, I overlooked at SJS's road record, which happens to be 5-0 ATS. I saw it, but it didn't register for some reason. Oh well.

Here's the rest of the system plays:

  5u Utah -1
  4u La Tech -19
  3u Tulane ML +105
  3u Hawaii +28

System lean on TCU +6.5, but I'm not betting against a team that is 7-1 ATS.

wtfe
College Football > FadeSystem NCAAF Week 11 (YTD: 70-49 +47.5u) > View Post
System plays:

  3u Illinois ML +135
  3u NM St. +20.5

Early plays are gonna be a sweat.

Mizzou somehow can't figure out how to move the ball against the worst defense in the NCAA. I knew they were bad, but didn't think they were that bad.

wtfe
College Football > FadeSystem NCAAF Week 11 (YTD: 70-49 +47.5u) > View Post
Strong system lean on UVA -2 again this week.

But like last week, how am I supposed to bet on a team that is 1-7 ATS and 0-4 ATS at home? Another pass...

wtfe
College Football > FadeSystem NCAAF Week 11 (YTD: 70-49 +47.5u) > View Post
System plays:

  5u Syracuse ML +105
  4u South Carolina -13.5
  3u Temple +8

wtfe
College Basketball > FadeSystem CBB 11/9 (YTD: 0-0 +0u) > View Post
System Plays:

  3u TSU +11
  2u La Tech +7.5
  2u San Fran Dons +12
 

wtfe
College Basketball > FadeSystem CBB 11/9 (YTD: 0-0 +0u) > View Post
System plays:

  3u MD/UK Over 135.5
  3u Texas -13.5

wtfe
College Basketball > FadeSystem CBB 11/9 (YTD: 0-0 +0u) > View Post
System plays:

  5u Georgia St./Duke Over 132
  3u Ohio St/Marquette Under 131.5
  3u Tulane +5.5

More system plays may be coming, just gotta see how some of these line moves.

BOL tonight.



wtfe
College Football > FadeSystem NCAAF Week 11 (YTD: 70-49 +47.5u) > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by wtfe:


  2u BG ML +110
  2u BG/Ohio Under 48.5



2-0 +4.2u so far on the week.

There is something suspicious about this line on the FSU/VaTech game tonight. At -10, FSU is the play all the way. At -17, I probably would've said FSU (albeit for a smaller bet). But at -13 now with the line continuing to move against them? The line movement has me questioning the system projection.

This looks like FSU is not gonna cover. But I've watched FSU play so I'm not betting against them.

System Lean: Va Tech +13

wtfe
College Football > FadeSystem NCAAF Week 11 (YTD: 70-49 +47.5u) > View Post
It's too complicated to easily explain, but basically it starts with a program that projects outcomes based on statistical matchups  crossed against public play percentage vs line movement. The weight of those three factors (plus some personal opinion/capping) determines the unit size.

At this point in the season, statistical trends are going into account on determining plays. For example I'm not gonna play a team who is 0-7 ATS even if it's shows up as a play. UVA last week is an example of a play (that ultimately won) but I had to pass on because it was too hard to justify betting a team that bad.

For example on the game tonight the projected outcome is 0. Meaning the game may as well be a coin flip. If the line had moved with Ohio then the play would have been Bowling Green +3.5, it moved towards BG so the play is BG ML.

The Under play is basically because every game BG has played this year has gone Under so I'm just riding the trend. But since I've BG at +110, I've got a perfect hedge. So if I go 1-1 tonight I'll still break even cause I got past the juice.

At the end of the day it picks winners.

wtfe
College Football > FadeSystem NCAAF Week 11 (YTD: 70-49 +47.5u) > View Post
Ok, got the movement I was looking for...

System plays tonight:

  2u BG ML +110
  2u BG/Ohio Under 48.5

BOL tonight.

wtfe
College Football > FadeSystem NCAAF Week 11 (YTD: 70-49 +47.5u) > View Post
System Play:

  5u Tennessee/Missouri Over 60

Probably will be a play on tonight's game, just waiting to see if that line moves anymore.
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