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save your $50
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scalabrine | 69 |
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When someone gives you 10,000:1 odds on anything, take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I'm going to be very rich.
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scalabrine | 69 |
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Quote Originally Posted by laythepoints:
You said that BC seems to be getting the job done, but against who? Va Tech (in the weather) Notre Dame Army Ga Tech Not the hardest teams to get the job done against……just trying to give some things to unreal. you're gonna go through bc's wins and not highlight the fact that they beat clemson on the road?? weather wasnt a problem in that one. they held spiller and davis to 62 yards rushing (on 22 carries) +4.5 and +170. all day |
JG33 | 15 |
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replied to
What is so different from OSU losing to Illinois then LSU losing to Arkansas?
in College Football Quote Originally Posted by dyounger:
arkansas > illinois
no chance, hogs D is brutal |
Bling | 57 |
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tech still has to beat the eagles in j-ville to win the ACC. the time to hedge is next week
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greenstacks | 22 |
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miami +14
and this is coming from a BC alum that follows his team closely. with the acc championship game next week, this is the is the ultimate 'looking past an opponent' scenario. other than it being the last game at the heights for the seniors, this game means very little to the eagles. it could be any team in the country on the other side of the field today and i think there would be problems with the kids staying focused. there's chatter among alums about winning to boost the resume in the case of a loss in j-ville, but that's certainly not a line of thinking the coaches have been presenting to the players this week.
a big goal this week is to get guys healthy. LB's dunbar and pruitt don't show up on the injury report, but i'd be shocked if they played more than a quarter of the plays on D. tribble's not going to see the field today. to be honest, i even think backup qb crane could see some snaps under center at some point
more reasons: OC logan doesn't want to show too much on offense (rather save it for UVA/VaTech). the home crowd will be weak(er than usual), as a good amount of students are still home on thanksgiving break.. and the 12:00 start means there's that much less time for the ones that are there to get themselves riled up for the game.
we're coming off of an enormous road win. we havent beat miami since the flutie game. miami is playing for their bowl life. i could on..
anyway, at the end of the day i still think bc wins this game. there is a lot of pride on the line, and i think that will ultimately surface in the second half after the eagles come out flat in the first. i absolutely hate picking against the eagles, but with a gun to my head, i say BC wins this one between 3 to 7 pts.
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wintesc | 2 |
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why's toefield getting carries? don't have the game on tv, cant get any information anywhere else
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wintesc | 1 |
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is mjd out? why did toefield start getting carries?
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betinwin | 7 |
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for what it's worth, simmons is on the saints this week. while i would never make a pick based solely on some columnist, it's comforting to know that historically he has been waaay off with regards to the panthers (doesn't matter if he's siding with or against them)
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wintesc | 5 |
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Quote Originally Posted by BigTime54: I'm on the 49'ers to win straihtup as well.....but I think NO finally gets it going this week. Carolina without Delhomme doesn't seem like much of a threat to me. Good luck i agree with you in that i'm not a huge carolina fan, but at least they've shown me a little something. new orleans.. um, not so much. foster actually has been running the ball pretty well (5 ypc), and as crappy as williams has been to fantasy owners, he's still a threat to take a screen pass and turn it into 30yds and a score. i would think carr knows that he doesn't have to go out and win this game on his own, so he can afford to be patient, rely on his backs, and maybe take a shot with mr. smith when the NO defense gets preoccupied with stopping the run |
wintesc | 5 |
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year of the dog...
Carolina +3.5 NY Jets +3.5 49ers +3.5 there's value in a bunch of the lines this week. here are three examples where the books are going to give you the hook for free. i have no idea what people are seeing in the saints, giants and ravens this year. i realize the teams i'm backing aren't world-beaters themselves, but there are enough positives in favor of the dogs in each matchup that i'll gladly take the 3.5 against some seriously flawed squads grabbed the ML's as well. hoping for 2 out of 3 outright wins, but going to stay above water with just a couple covers |
wintesc | 5 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Woody Post:
Puh Leeze..... If you don't think the NFL Brass has any input, then why did they reverse a call on the spot of a ball on 4th vs. 1st down at the goal line for Dallas. If the spot stands Barber pounds it in from the 1 and Dallas wins & total goes over....don't tell me the league didn't want to control the outcome of that game.
If u don't believe me just ask David Stern why the NBA finals always go 6 or 7 games EVERY year. you're a clown. why in the world would the nfl EVER want to see seattle in the 2nd round instead of dallas? the league would get 100x more exposure (not to mention the ratings boost) if they had romo, t.o. and the rest of "america's team" going into chicago this week.
also, you mention that "they're" controlling the outcome of the game by overturning that spot. that's ridiculous. grammatica hits that fg 99 times out of 100. not to mention the fact that even if the referee/nfl conspiracy did allow the spot to stand and the cowboys get the first down, chances are that they're downing the ball to run the clock down to nothing (remember, seattle only had 1 time out at that point) and then kicking the field goal. i find it hard to believe that the tuna would score right away and give the ball back to seattle with over a minute left in a one possession game
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YaMon | 137 |
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Cartman: Well did you know that over one-fourth of people in America think that 9/11 was a conspiracy? Are you saying that one-fourth of Americans are retards?
Kyle: Yes. I'm saying one-fourth of Americans are retards.
Stan: Yeah, at least one-fourth.
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YaMon | 137 |
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loudon, just read your post about "trap lines" and i couldn't agree more. i've read numerous times that there is just no such thing. it just wouldn't make sense for them to take on the unnecessary exposure when in most cases they have an zero risk profit.
along those lines, one thing that has ALWAYS bothered me is prop bets. 15-20 cent vig?!?! might as well write a personal check to the maloof brothers
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yosef | 164 |
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fatal flaw of the human [betting] mind is to make correlations that are unimportant and irrellevant.
i agree. the reason that panther's system originally caught my attention was the one contrarian angle where in certain instances like night games, he liked to bet against the move of the line. in a roundabout way, he was betting against public biases toward certain variables that are either unimportant (certain team/player success over only a small sample size) and/or irrelevant (team history/prestige)
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yosef | 164 |
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you are on the right path thinking about PhD-level statisticians researching this stuff though. it's a specific field of economics that's gaining more and more steam, especially with the recent success of Steven Levitt's book Freakonomics
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yosef | 164 |
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totalguy, the books don't need that kind of research. the books don't want to bet against you. they want you to bet against someone else. that's why the lines move, because in certain instances, it makes more sense for them to take a cent or two hit to make the "other" side of the bet more attractive
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yosef | 164 |
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last comments, then i need to get back to work.
let me first say that i really appreciate the intelligent conversation rather than the caps and exclamation points you see all over this forum
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yosef | 164 |
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loudon, to answer your last comment, i doubt it would be worth the time/money for any "vegas" service to perfrom a statistical review along these lines. what vegas wants more than anything is balanced action. in a traditional -110 betting scenario, best case is 50% on each side and they take the vig. zero risk
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yosef | 164 |
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correlation is a statistical technique which can show whether and how strongly pairs of variables are related. one should NEVER assume that a correlation means that a change in one variable causes a change in another. however we're not trying to make a team win, but rather, trying to find the team that has the better odds of winning.
to answer your question above, obviously it doesn't mean that you have a better chance of getting into harvard. however, if i showed you two students - one from harvard and one from bc - and you knew that student A liked cheerios, what school would you bet that student A attended?
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yosef | 164 |
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