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replied to
People are acting like the Nucks just steamrolled over the entire Western Conference...
in NHL Betting Quote Originally Posted by TDD: one thing I think you could have touched on when discussing the gf & ga in the playoffs for both teams is the regular season goal differential for their opponents. Is it a big shock that boston scoring 3+ goals /game when the GD of their opponents was +7 mtl,+36 (philly) who was without Pronger in the series(pouros goaltending as well) & +7 TB.While vancouver faced +33 chicago,+25 Nashville, + 35 SJ--I think those numbers make Boston look a little better than they are & Vancouver a little worse than they are.
Other thoughts and questions. Vancouver has never trailed in any series at any time this year. The only adversity that they faced was playing game 7 against the Hawks and having to live with choking that series away. If Boston can be even after 4 games, it would be the first time in this years playoffs that the Nucks would have pressure on them to win game 5 at home. All three of their previous series were 3-1 to their advantage after 4 games. Vancouver won only one of those game 5's. I know Vancouver has a very nice streak of winning game 1's, but how do they respond if Boston goes in there and takes the opener? Boston faced adversity right out of the box by dropping the first two games at home to the Habs. They had two must win games on the road after that and obviously passed that huge test. The B's also fell behind the Bolts 1-0 in that series. Both teams are 7-3 at home and 5-3 on the road. Boston has been excellent at even strength while the Nucks have been only decent. The B's have scored 58 goals with only 5 coming on the PP. That means they are nearly averaging 3 even strength goals per game in the playoffs! Vancouver has scored 50 goals with 17 of them coming on the PP.The Sedin's have struggled 5 on 5, but have dominated on the PP. 6 of their combined 10 goals have come with the man advantage and they have also gobbled up a ton of assists with the man advantage. Time and space is critical for the twins and they simply haven't had much room out there unless they have been on the PP. Expect more of the same from the Bruins who will play them tighter than wallpaper. Can Boston simultaneously hold down the Sedin's and Kesler for a handful of games? If yes, does any other forward step up for Vancouver and contribute to a win when the big guns are silent? Or will Vancouver have to rely on more timely goal scoring from their defensemen? Which goalie would you rather have on your team for this series? Luongo has made some major gaffes along the way, while Thomas can go from great to terrible at the drop of a hat. |
rangerz2478 | 34 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Jose_Reyes: BOL to you too & thanks for sharing your reasons.
My mistake. I will be on the Hall. BOL with your play. |
TheSource2Win | 217 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Jose_Reyes:
St John's only has to win 1 of their last 2 games to secure a double bye. They know this. Their next game is home against South Florida. Which is a tougher game? At Seton Hall or South Florida at home? You asked for enlightenment as to why St John's isnt the play tonight. I provided more than enough reasons for backing Seton Hall. BOL with your play. "St. John’s has made a habit of putting Top 25 teams to shame all year and now has an opportunity to earn a double-bye in next weekend’s Big East Tournament with two wins to close out the regular season. "
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TheSource2Win | 217 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Jose_Reyes: The 13 year thing is not relevant-but the let down scenario is a possibility imo.However why didn't they have a letdown after,Uconn,Cincy,Marquette,Pitt?I am not saying SH will get blown out I am saying the CHALK is small enough to take the favorite.They have a very compelling reason to stay focused & that is the double buy in the big east tourney.
St John's hasnt won at Seton Hall in 13 years. St John's is 5-6 on the road this year. Seton Hall hasnt lost a home game in conference by more than 6. St Johns is coming off a big win at Villanova. Its only human nature to have a let down after a big win like that. These are just a few reasons why Seton Hall has a chance tonight. BOL with your play. |
TheSource2Win | 217 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Jose_Reyes: Please enlighten me as to why SH is the play?
No one here is disputing that St John's isnt the better team. However, just because they are the better team, does not automatically make them the correct play tonight. I'll take the better team more often than not. |
TheSource2Win | 217 |
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Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle: St John's record speaks for itself- 3-0 in their last 3 road games vs better home teams than SH. who are 1-4 in last 5 home games have losses to Uconn Villanova Rutgers & GT-St John's beat the first three & are playing well on the road right now.They are 8-2 in their last 10 & SH is 3-7.Anyone who doesn't think St John's is a better team than SH needs to have their head examined.
So you are telling me that St Johns on the road is superior to Seton Hall at home in this spot? I could make a pretty good argument the other way - especially for a spot like this. Seton Hall might win but St John's is the right play. |
TheSource2Win | 217 |
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Quote Originally Posted by RonaldRegan22: You are saying that the oddsmakers believe SH should win this game & are purposely drawing in the public on St John's.
of course they set trap lines.....to think other wise is seriously one of the dumbest things ive ever heard in my life. They make the lines, they make the system, they are responsible for millions and milllions of dollars of wagers....do you understand the power they have? You dont think they set trap lines? Put it to you like this man......the theory is "vegas" tries to create a spread that generates 50/50 action correct? Well think of it like this.....picture a room full of oddsmakers, sitting at the round table....and theyre creating spreads for these upcoming games.....as they go down their list of games....they get to St Johns vs Seton Hall.....do you honestly think that someone speaks up and says...."according to my calculations, st johns should be a -2 point favorite against seton hall... and i believe this line will create 50/50 action".....and you think everyone else says "i agree"
i mean...just look at the game. the general public looks at this game and sees one of the HOTTEST teams in CBB, a team that has beaten numerous RANKED teams....playing the lowly seton hall team that has a record of 11-17 and only laying 2 points. You honestly think that by them making this line 2....they arent taking a HUGE gamble?!?! they arent morons man. they know if they put out a line of -2 they are going to receive a TON of action on St johns.....you think they're just giving out freebies? you dont think a line of 4, 6, or even 8 would generate wagers closer to 50/50? i mean by making it 2....people are looking at this like "wait....all st johns has to do is win?" Now im not saying seton hall is a lock....because anyhting can happen....but i know the oddsmakers are taking a huge risk tonight by creating a spread so low....they are well aware of the action they are going to receive on st johns...and they are soo confident in seton hall they are willing to gamble. The public could sweep the board tonight...and lose one game....that one game being st johns...and i guarantee you the books make money on the night. On games like this...i tend to side with the oddsmakers as opposed to your average joe....which is why ill be betting on seton hall.
and yes...i do believe they are setting a trap. bol Give me one logical reason why Seton Hall should beat a superior St John's team.The whole trap line theory/opinion can only be a fact if the game in question is fixed. |
TheSource2Win | 217 |
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replied to
Beware! Understand a "TRAP" game to better yourself as a bettor. PLEASE READ!
in College Basketball Quote Originally Posted by TexasD: Hey Texas D some of your assumptions are flawed.
OK, a few of you DO NOT UNDERSTAND what is meant by a "trap" game and I'm guessing you didn't do much reading, because I CAN NOT explain it in ANY clearer form of English. If it doesn't make sense to you and you DON'T want to TRY TO UNDERSTAND MY viewpoint of what a "trap" game is, then you don't have to be here. There are forum topics OF YOUR INTEREST. I am ONLY trying to teach the concept of a "trap" game to people who don't, and I can tell some of you clearly aren't READING and are confused. THE FIRST THING of a "trap" game is that a HIGH PERCENTAGE of people are on ONE side. That would have to mean that there is a LOW PERCENTAGE of people on the other side. Vegas keeps the amount of money of each side EVEN. That's how they MAKE MONEY EVERYTIME. How can you have 5 Million people on one side of a bet and ONLY 50,000 people on the other,....AND have the sportsbook monetarily EVEN on both sides? Simple, the 50,000 people are putting WAY MORE MONEY down comparitively to 5 million betting LESS cumulatively. THIS IS what I'm trying to teach here. You guys keep giving me examples of games that had a NORMAL ratio of people on each side. Etc. 50/50, 55/45, 60/40, even 65/35. Nothing to be worried about. 82/18 for Kansas? RED FLAG I hope that makes sense to you. If it doesn't,...and you STILL would like to UNDERSTAND it,...then drop a question about it. But if you DON'T CARE what I think or you think that I'M WRONG, then why did you click into this thread?!?! To beat me down?!?!? Please don't clog up this thread with stuff just because you think I'm wrong. If there are people here that DO want to understand it, then you are just ruinning their chance of doing so. So please...please don't click on threads that you don't want to know about. BOL TexasD This game where a high % of people were on Kansas.You have absolutely no idea if the books were able to attract enough action on KSU to have even money on both sides.As a result they may have a big win on this game.The books do not have 50/50 action on every single game.Sometimes it works in their favor & sometimes it doesn't.The line is the line to me there is no "trap game" |
TexasD | 61 |
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Quote Originally Posted by 14daroad: Is Steeler Nation as silly as you--your team never had the lead- it makes difficult to win--If the Steelers D generated a T.O. you might have won but they didn't -The Steelers got outplayed on both sides of the ball.
having Pitt in this game was a farce The Steelers had more: Rushing Yards Return Yards First Downs Time of Posession Total Yards Than Green Bay. The Steelers fell behind 21-3, then proceeded to hold Green Bay scoreless for the next 20 minutes of football, and outscored them 24-10. Additionally, despite having 3 turnovers (1 a pick 6) the Steelers still had the ball with a chance to win at the end. Your silly comments are a farce. |
joemw74 | 65 |
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Quote Originally Posted by 14daroad: Again so what N.O. beat the Steelers with 30 yds rushing total.All the stats you mention are meaningless.31-25 the stat that counts. The T.O.'s were caused by GB's D your team didn't lose the game they got BEAT by the better team.
The Steelers held the ball more, had more first downs, more return yards, more rushing yards (GB only had 50 rushing yards) a better 3rd down and red zone efficiency, and more total yards. If Green Bay is so great, I'd hate to see what an AFC team would have done to Atlanta or Chicago in that game... |
lookingtowin | 53 |
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Quote Originally Posted by 14daroad: So What--The Steelers had the ball & needed a td to win & GB's defence shut down the Steelers when it counted.GB got it done & won --in fact on the last drive Pitt didn't even get to midfield.
The Steelers fell behind 21-3, then proceeded to hold Green Bay scoreless for the next 20 minutes of football, and outscored them 24-10. Additionally, despite having 3 turnovers (1 a pick 6) the Steelers still had the ball with a chance to win at the end. The people asserting that Pittsburgh should not have been there or had no chance or whatever are ignorant morons. If GB had 3 turnovers and the Steelers had zero, there would have been no way GB would have been within 6 points. Finally, the Steelers have scored at least 20 points in 15 consecutive games-- the longest streak in NFL history. |
lookingtowin | 53 |
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Quote Originally Posted by lookingtowin: This comment right here just shows how ignorant you are.
No excuses here i am not a Steeler fan and don't care that they lost they deserved to lose. They just put up a real poor effort. Three quarters of the teams in the NFL could have beat either the Steelers or the Packers yesterday. The Pack didn't play that great they just played a hair better than the PATHETIC Steelers yesterday, There is only one team in the league that earned the right to play the Packers in the SB & no team in the league would've beaten them. |
lookingtowin | 53 |
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Quote Originally Posted by JTFinn: Rodgers became Brady yesterday when he torched Pitt's lacklustre secondary for 304 yds & 3td'sSuperbowl MVP.Jones & Nelson put up 190 yds of that total-some of your fellow Steeeler fans are eating crow over that.
That is the most overblown, overrated statement that everyone likes to hang their hat on in this matchup. In the last few years, only one player (Brady) has successfully spread the field and passed on the Lebeau defense. Manning & Rivers have had moderate success at best. MANY have tried and failed. When did Rodgers become Brady? sure Rodgers can have success, but that is certainly no given as everyone thinks. There is as good of a chance that he shits his pants in his first big game as he does shred the Steelers. Big Ben is clutch? Needing to go 87 yards in 1:59 with one timeout left, the Steelers couldn't make it across midfield. Steelers experience will carry the day! Yikes guess not. |
LRM704 | 215 |
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Quote Originally Posted by GamblingProblem: Hey ass hat
and do you want to know how I know that you dont EVER watch the steelers, and are therefore discredited in my book? Hines Ward is not one of our best receivers at this point in the season or his career. He is not much more than a decoy. He has like 7 catches in the post season and most of his damage was done during the year. The rookies are taking a more prominent role in the offense and becoming a factor in this league. more and more each game. But it seems as you have heard of hines ward ... because hes the most popular receiver and the one you see on sports center. congrats. guess who finished second on the steelers in receptions this post season Hines Ward.Second to Wallace---Do you ever get tired of just being wrong? |
LRM704 | 215 |
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Quote Originally Posted by GamblingProblem:
can someone explain to me when James Jones, Jordey Nelson, and a 40 year old Donald Driver became elite receivers in this league? everyone says that their receivers are better than Pitts DBs. But i personally think that if Ike does his job on Jennings (which will be a difficult task) the GB receivers are not much better if better at all than the steelers secondary. Please recall that the packers won the phily game in spite of james jones not because of him. what did he have like 4 drops? if he does that this weekend they will lose (look no further than jeremy stevens in super bowl 40). Was it fun for you watching Jordy Nelson torch Pitt's secondary 9 catches for 140 yds & a td. |
LRM704 | 215 |
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Quote Originally Posted by grahamillion: Nobody has a running game vs Pitt.
The successful teams also have a running game...
Really N.O. rushed for 30 yds vs Pitt & won 20-10 |
grahamillion | 7 |
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Att Comp Yds Comp % Yds/Att TD TD % INT INT % Long Sck Sack/Lost Rating
Ben Roethlisberger 51 29 359 56.9 7.0 2 3.9 2 3.9 58 8 46 75.5 Player Att Comp Yds Comp % Yds/Att TD TD % INT INT % Long Sck Sack/Lost Rating Playoff stats don't favor big Ben--Now keep in mind that Rodgers stats are road stats & Big Bens stats are home stats.I am on the pack ML
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grahamillion | 7 |
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Quote Originally Posted by grahamillion: I think the answer is this that one xtra receiver with 500 yds is going to be the one that gives the D fits.Pittsburgh defended more passes because that is their relative weakness.
*Disclaimer: I'm siding with Pittsburgh for the Super Bowl. But these are facts right off of NFL.com. I am not a Steelers fan.*
My question to that is: What? Did Ben Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's pass game do nothing this season?
Sure, you can take what the "experts" are saying at face value, or you can look at the stats...
Aaron Rogers 2010 - 2011 Regular Season QB line:
475 Att, 312 Comp, 65.7 Comp%, 3922 Yds, 8.3Yrds/Att
28 TDs, 5.9 TD%, 11 INT, 2.3 INT%,
86 Long, 31 Sck, 193 Sck/Lost
QB Rating: 101.2
Ben Roethlisberger 2010 - 2011 Regular Season QB line:
389 Att, 240 Comp, 61.7 Comp%, 3200 Yds, 8.2Yrds/Att
17 TDs, 4.4 TD%, 5 INT, 1.3 INT %
56 Long, 32 Sck, 220/Lost
QB Rating: 97.0
The lines are fairly similar, until you take into account Roethlisberger only played in 12 Games this season, while Rogers played in 15 Games.
Onto the WRs now...
Green Bay had 4 players that had gains of over 500 Receiving Yards this season ( Jennings, Driver, Jones and Nelson) And 7 players altogether who had at least 100 Yards or more on the season.
Pittsburgh only had 3 players that had gains over over 500 Receiving Yards this season (Wallace, Ward and Miller) but had 8 players altogether with 100 Yards or more receiving yards this season.
The big difference here is Green Bay had 9 different WRs catching at least 1 TD, while Pittsburgh only had 6.
If any one isn't understanding what I'm getting at, it's that for the last two weeks all we've heard about is Green Bay's Pass-Game this and Green Bay's Pass-Game that, but where is the respect for Pittsburgh's? Why is Roethlisberger continually being overlooked by Rogers who, yes, beat him in all categories, but also played 3 more games.
I'm not saying Green Bay's Pass-Game is garbage, because it isn't. It has to be respected at all times, and I respect it. But after seeing the numbers, I respect Pittsburgh's Pass-Game just as much.
Sure Green Bay's 5th best Pass-Defence gave up only 194.2 Yards/Game for a combined total of 3,107 Yards against on the season, compared to Pittsburgh's 12th best Pass-Defence which gave up 20 extra yards (214.1 Yards/Game) for a combined total of 3,425 Yards against on the year.
But Pittsburgh also defended 66 more passing plays during the season than Green Bay did and still had a lower Avg/Play at 6.3Yards/Play against Green Bay's 6.6Yards/Play
Sure, we can argue back and forth until we're all blue in the face and throw out stat after stat as to why this player or that player is better. But when it comes down to it - Green Bay's Pass-Game isn't much more superior than Pittsburgh's. So people need to stop listening to what the "experts" and the media are saying here.
This, along with Pittsburgh's Defence and Green Bay's inevitability of being able to run on it leads me to take Pittsburgh all day long.
Aaron Rogers will have his moment. I just don't think it's here.
Best of luck to all. Thank you to all who read
Yds per pass is misleading because you can't run on the steelers so you pass.The successful teams dink & dunk their way down the field that's how you beat them. |
grahamillion | 7 |
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99: They finished 12th in total yardage allowed.1st in YPP means they tackle well not that they are good vs the pass.
They finished 1st in the NFL in yards per pass attempt which happens to be the exact same ranking they finished in yards per rushing attempt. |
LRM704 | 215 |
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Quote Originally Posted by don juan: If that's what your basing your pick on I am going to go the other way.
After spending much time researching stats looking for an edge, the fact is they are very evenly matched. That is, with one big exception, the grit and experience of Big Ben ! How many times has this guy made big plays with someone hanging on his leg, or carrying 3 guys on his back into the end zone ? Winning a division game with a broken, bleeding, twisted nose. Who does that ? Green Bay has a great defense too, but Pittsburgh beats great defenses consistently. One stat that stood out to me...In the last 4 years the Baltimore Ravens great defense have only beaten Pittsburgh 3 times out of 10, ( including playoffs.) Guess what ? Each time Big Ben did NOT play ! How about Rex Ryan's Jets solid defense two weeks ago ? Big Ben made them vulnerable when he was able to move the pocket. Remember the 3rd and 7 play to end that game ? QB Michael Vick, and QB Caleb Hanie had a chance to win at the end but they each threw an interception. If history is any indication, Big Ben will win it at the end. Don't forget his comeback win in the Superbowl against Arizona two years ago. If you think that was a fluke, how about Dec 2009 when Ben beat Green Bay 37-36, Again, it was on the last play of the game ! ( And Troy Polamalu did not play in that game ). The measure of a great quarterback is what he does at crunch time, Big Ben has just too many comeback wins to all be luck. The guy is great and the guy is money! I certainly will not go against him. I am convinced that the PITTSBURGH STEELERS + 2.5 will be my 12th consecutive Superbowl winner. See you at the cashier's window. Don Juan
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don juan | 65 |
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