therealdutch

Member Since:February 2017
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therealdutch
Systems & Strategies > NHL 2 Team road parlay system > View Post
Dan, not to beat you down with questions, but as i said a few pages ago, with any system, i like to be to a point where i can run it without checking covers or relying on someone to feed me the pick.  i know there are some days you lay off when there are 3 or 4 games.  do you have a 'hard stop' number you go by, or is it more of a gut feel on when to play or take a day off?



therealdutch
Systems & Strategies > NHL 2 Team road parlay system > View Post
are we a go tonight on STL & DAL?

therealdutch
Systems & Strategies > NHL road trip UNDER > View Post
Interesting. 

therealdutch
Systems & Strategies > NHL 2 Team road parlay system > View Post

Man, that was close. 


therealdutch
Systems & Strategies > DegenGamble's NFL handicapping method > View Post
61.5% on the season.  nicely done. 

therealdutch
Systems & Strategies > NHL 2 Team road parlay system > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by StevieD9325:
I was actually not thinking of playing both sides. I was just wondering if any one had records of playing the opposite. 
Don't get me wrong I love this system. And I will be on Wash and Ana tonight.


It would be an interesting thing to track b/c the progression lines would have different starting numbers (after the very first win) and the 'fade' would actually have better odds on the parlay.  i.e. tonight would be the 2nd game in the progression and would be 20 to win 69.

i started a separate column on my sheet to track.  will report back if i see anything interesting.

therealdutch
Systems & Strategies > NHL 2 Team road parlay system > View Post
To add to that, only going off this season's 7 plays there have only been 2 occurrences where the home team won both games.

therealdutch
Systems & Strategies > NHL 2 Team road parlay system > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by StevieD9325:
Just a question 

The overall record of Parlays won and lost is 129 Wins and 256 Loses. 

Is there a record of what the results would be if we played the Home teams. The won loss record would be 256 and 129. So taking the best away team odds and playing the home teams?

Thanks for the system!


not exactly that simple on the record "reversal". 

only takes one team to lose on a parlay to count as a loss.  so you'd have to know how many of those 256 PARLAY losses that you're now counting as a "win" are 1-1 outcomes.

therealdutch
Systems & Strategies > NHL 2 Team road parlay system > View Post
****PLEASE DON'T READ THIS AS THE PICKS!***

i'm trying to get the hang of this so that i'm not 100% reliant on logging into covers to look up every day to see if Dan has put his selection in yet.  and checking back all through the day, since we all have different schedules in different time zones and i basically shut it down at 5pm central. 

SO, with that in mind, correct me if i'm looking at this the wrong way.  as of this post, there are 4 games tonight.  road teams and corresponding lines (on covers) are TOR -110; STL +165; CAL +135; PHI +130.  does this mean the picks would be TOR and PHI with the 2 strongest road lines?

sorry again to all, i'm just trying to understand this as it gets going.

therealdutch
Systems & Strategies > 2nd half road FADE system > View Post
Again, not an official system play but if you added cincy, MIL hit on the A game and the the B game of the chase. Done and done. See y'all next July.

therealdutch
College Football > Week 5 NCAA FB > View Post

therealdutch
Systems & Strategies > NHL 2 Team road parlay system > View Post
bring on hockey!

therealdutch
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:

And other things too maybe


i've followed a lot of your plays successfully.  didn't have a side on that one b/c had other games in play, so it didn't really make a difference to me.  i just noticed that your trend was based on a certain type of play from teams and wanted to note that the rule change *could* effect that.  information sharing is the real value of these forums.

keep 'em coming


therealdutch
MLB Betting > Beat the sweep system > View Post
great year overall.  thanks Tone.  maybe next year you might consider putting this in the systems&strategies forum instead of the general baseball forum.  i think that was part of the headache was every week or so we'd get someone new on here that didn't understand it and just mucked up the focus of the system.  link here to find the forum

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/POST01/showmain.aspx?spt=79

therealdutch
Systems & Strategies > 2nd half road FADE system > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

No problem. You may want to take a look at my hockey system that will fire back up next week.


plan on it.

therealdutch
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jorgelb47:
Dutch did you fail math in school????


whoops, no, i have a masters in accounting.  i made a mistake in my haste to post the other info about the rule change having an effect.

 i think that the rule change for home field advantage is really the more important point anyway.  if this was in a prior year, the indians would already know they would have home field advantage b/c the AL won the ASG.  but not this season.  these games are important.



therealdutch
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by herbshack:
Since 2012, Dogs facing teams (likely clinched) with over 33 more wins than losses, in regular season from 9/1's on, are 57-49 +39.06 units, +36.8% roi SU!


Indians don't have 33 more wins than losses.  they're at 30 right now (98-58).  was 33 a typo in SDQL or just in your post?  or am i not reading that right?

one other thing i see that may skew the stat there is that for the years you queried, the World Series home-field advantage was determined by the All Star Game winner.  this year it will be determined by the regular season records of the 2 teams that meet.  Cleveland could still catch the Dodgers to gain home field, and on the flip side of that they don't want the Nationals to catch up to them and take that away since they won't know who they'll be playing until after the NLCS. 

sorry to critique your query, but i think this rule change (and the other number i pointed out) do affect this pretty significantly, at least in theory, as to how teams that have that far of a lead and have clenched would approach the final stretch of baseball.  makes every game count even with a huge lead in the win column.

therealdutch
Systems & Strategies > 2nd half road FADE system > View Post
thanks again Dan for your effort tracking these, posting reminders, and answering questions for me in July as someone new to this (and CKP's PASB) system.

so, with that, i'll see you back here in July '18



therealdutch
Systems & Strategies > 2nd half road FADE system > View Post
not to get off subject b/c Dan didn't add it as an official system play, but if you refer to posts 707/708 of this thread, CINCY was just above the threshold at the ASB and tanked after and traded away players.  anyway, they're starting a 6 game road stretch against MIL & CHC who are both still in contention to win the NL Central or stay ahead of COL for the 2nd wildcard. so they are going to be doing their best to win (versus resting guys)

anyway, thought i'd throw it out there for anyone interested.  i added them back in early august and they have been good on the Away Fade for 7 extra units (never getting past B game).

therealdutch
College Football > Week 3 Money > View Post


therealdutch
College Football > 2017 College football dogs only season > View Post

therealdutch
MLB Betting > am i the only one who bet the cubs and.. > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by searchwarrant:
The cub bullpen dancing is hysterical. How long have they been doing that?


all season.

therealdutch
MLB Betting > Beat the sweep system > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Big_Tone21:
3-0 sweep to start

CHC
DET
HOU
CO

GL everyone!


FYI, DET is a 4 game series that started yesterday.  still probably good chase there, but thought i'd let you know.



therealdutch
MLB Betting > September Dogs - Starting with $4k > View Post
second on twitter.  i sent a friend request PM if you're more comfortable not making a public post.

therealdutch
MLB Betting > Tomlin to keep the streak going? > View Post
commencing fade chase today.  KC +185

therealdutch
MLB Betting > Opportunity of lifetime. Advise please... > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by vcuminh:
Bet placed:

Astros/Angels u4½ (-130) - 1st Five
$700
Ticket #: 190685389
Accepted: 09/12/2017 09:49 PM
Risk/Win: $910.00 / $700.0

If I win and lose parlay then I won net $2


so net positive $.  how is that a bad thing?  didn't get your $9100, but also didn't lose your $698.  that was well played in my opinion.

therealdutch
MLB Betting > 2017 program run > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by BallingLikeNE:
it's time to get off the "I wanna fade the Dodgers" train, that train crashed yesterday.


i'm thinking it's time to start fading CLE.

therealdutch
Systems & Strategies > parlay add on progression chase > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by mike7002:
OK;  6 for 6  no losing tickets;  my 3rd one.   ABC ticket pays $67.04;  ABCD ticket pays  $140.71;  ABCDE ticket pays  $403.72;  ABCDEF ticket pays  $1406.25  for a total of  $2017.72.   I was down  -$540.60  for the cycle so this gave me a win of  +$1477.12.   I'll have some late plays after.  


way to go Mike.  gotta say, i check in on this thread regularly just cheering for you to hit this.  congrats.

therealdutch
Systems & Strategies > NFL teams after posting 40 or more points > View Post
so, in week 1, there were only 2 40+ point teams.  Chiefs & Rams.  both are .500 teams ATS in this query

no action week 2, right?

therealdutch
Systems & Strategies > NFL teams after posting 40 or more points > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sabbathen:
I feel like this guy posts some interesting stuff, you just need to be a rocket scientist to interpret his posts...


thought that for a while.  either a rocket scientist or an imbecile.  he sometimes has good info but the presentation is unbearable. 
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