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replied to
WRITE-UP: You know who I am here to post about so let's get on with it: RUTGERS @ WASHINGTON
in College Football
i like the write up. good stuff,
enjoy the day and good luck. |
scalabrine | 74 |
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GL today freak
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Megatron1911 | 630 |
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NIU every which way...
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User592150 | 6 |
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Quote Originally Posted by vuzeruze: Why the plus? BC is the underdog so they get three points +3 GT would be giving up three, so -3 |
CrazyFrenchman | 14 |
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Baldwin has always had Baers number...csu might pull it out, but CU is a little unknown as they get the players that had to sit a year. CU will be better, but still struggle in PAC whatever it is now. |
Greedybastard | 38 |
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and if you really are taking on the house second half...don't make a bet if you been drinking or smoking rope...that is exactly what they want...
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LawsonJames | 47 |
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Quote Originally Posted by LawsonJames:
I agree to a point. This wager requires Rivers to score touchdowns to lose since they are so far behind. Which will also require to convert 3rd and 4th downs. I dont believe Rivers can. well you can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink. before you bet second halfs, if you have an inkling of emotion involved you will choose the wrong side a majority of the time. Your homework assignment next weekend is to watch the morning games and write down all the second half bets (points only +/-) and circle your bet using your best logic and football knowledge. And see how you do vs. the house. Trust me, do this for a few weeks and you will see that they set that second half line based on a number of probabilities (and more often than not they will occur and you will lose each and everytime) second half bets are much tougher than points, ml, and over/unders. |
LawsonJames | 47 |
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next second half bet you make, remove the emotion. They set second half bets on logic and know that the average degenerate has been sitting around sucking suds in his manning jersey and just watched him tear an behind outta the chargers in the first half. Logically to you - Manning is on fire, surely he will toss a few more...That isn't logic that is emotion. Logic to them - Manning has game won so he is going to hold the momentum and sit on the ball. He will not throw over middle, or any routes in to the field so he doesn't risk a player injury or a high risk throw. He will kick a field goal before he throws a TD because he wants three extra plays to burn time. think football in the second half bets, not what you just watched. |
LawsonJames | 47 |
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he doesn't want to score...this is not the BCS where you need points...this is the NFL, he doesn't want to shift the momentum, he wants to win with the lowest risk possible. He will run three extra plays and kick a field goal before he throws a touchdown pass. They just punted again...notice rivers is creeping to the 50, but has not been able to do a damn thing because the defense has him...he needs to play high risk ball, and now with the 4thQ higher risk, and Manning will keep coming out and eating time. Manning is not trying to score, unless he has to... |
LawsonJames | 47 |
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Quote Originally Posted by LawsonJames:
And when it hits you guys will have excuses. I could careless what you guys think. Not responding because I don't want this moved to the box for no reason. I will say that whenever you can get Peyton Manning under 2-1 just for the ml that is a bet I will put the house on. I will be celebrating in an hour and a half I like your logic "2-1" etc. However...at this point in the season, and with a lead, your pal Peyton is not your friend in this situation...he is going to come out and get first and run the ball...if they score, great, but he wants to take minutes off that clock and play field position and challenge Rivers. Rivers has to make high risk throws and try and come from behind. Peyton isn't sending any receivers over the middle until he has to, and will dink and dunk - because he is playing not to lose. So essentially, you are gambling that their will be a pick 6, a turnover and a short field...so you might get lucky... who knows? that is why it is gambling...some are with ya some are against ya. |
LawsonJames | 47 |
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JasonZyman | 18 |
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I was pulling for ya...I was hoping to see spurrier sputter...
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ATLGettinPaper | 16 |
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nope...that int took away any chance if ya had one...
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ATLGettinPaper | 16 |
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ManRam24 | 17 |
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Santa Anita Woooooooo Hoooooooooo! |
snatraps | 1 |
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SPARTANS +120
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MoneylineMBA | 26 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Lefty_Rosenthal: Lol, does anybody actually read the post? I bet my two ml locks with every play. Each bet u see is a three teamer, two of which are my ml locks Every week same question
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Lefty_Rosenthal | 67 |
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keep fighting! |
Lefty_Rosenthal | 66 |
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Cut the turnovers, play same strong D and Houston wins 2nd half...in my opinion, even with backup.
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YELAWOLF | 5 |
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I agree!!
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badlands | 15 |
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