Profile | Entries | Thread Author | Posts | Activity | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TNF Week 7 Play:
SF -7 (-130) 5units Good Luck everyone.
|
remkg | 4 |
|
||||
YTD: 4-2-1 Starting BankRoll: $5000 Current BankRoll: $5881.82 +$881.82 2-0 this week! Great week for me. Hope it was good for you guys as well. BOL on TNF. |
remkg | 4 |
|
||||
YTD: 2-2-1 Starting BankRoll: $5000 Current BankRoll: $5245.46 +$245.46 Cowboys +3.5 @ Baltimore - 5 Units Weather: 42/51f Partly Sunny Open: -4.5 Current: -3 Spot: Dallas (heavily favored spot) off an emotional monday night embarrassing loss and a bye. Dallas will come out fighting for this win. Romo will have a good game vs an overrated Baltimore defense who is giving up 379.8yds per game (24th in the league). Team: Statistically Dallas is the better team. Dallas very underrated by the public. Ravens Defense overrated. Baltimore is an incredibly different team at home though which is why i'm only betting 5 units. However, there is good value in this play and a great spot for Dallas. Expect Romo and the dallas offense to be fired up in this one coming off the bad loss + bye sitting at 2-2. Romo will surely bounce back, and this spot is too good to pass up for me. I'll take the underrated Dallas +3.5 at Baltimore. Denver Broncos PK @ San Diego - 30 Units MNF Weather: 64/85f Mostly Clear Open: SD -3 Current: SD PK Spot: Denver Broncos - Denver needs this win more as they are sitting 2nd in the division to the Chargers. Chargers leading the division after losing to the Saints. Denver is 2-3 (W-L) going into a bye. I guarantee Peyton is going to be playing his best in this must-win for the broncos. This 2-3 record is definitely skewed because of how tough their schedule was. Peyton is playing very well sitting a very good, 101QBR. He will absolutely light up the Chargers combined with McGahee, underrated back, to finish and get the tough goal line TDs. On the other hand, the chargers having had a very easy schedule sitting at 3-2 and still will be tied for 1st with this loss. Rivers has a 93.1QBR but vs weaker opponents. Norv Turner also is a very mediocre coach in my opinion. I really love this play and i'm quite confident the Broncos take this one. The chargers are +3 on a neutral field according to the line which is totally wrong in my opinion. Sell Rivers & the chargers High and Buy Peyton & the broncos Low this week. McGahee will have a big game as he will surely bounce back from the performance against the Pats. Rivers going against a tougher defense than what he's been playing against earlier in the season as well. I'll take Denver as a PK all day long in this position playing at San Diego. BOL |
remkg | 4 |
|
||||
YTD: 2-1-1
Starting BankRoll: $5000 Current BankRoll: $5545.46 +$545.46 After a strong winning week, I like to keep the next week's bets smaller just to stay grounded and enjoy the big win. It does not effect the play strength simply bet sizing will be lower. 1 Single Play for Week 5 in the NFL: TENNESSEE (1 - 3) at MINNESOTA (3 - 1) - 10/7/2012, 4:25 PM (EST) TENN +5.5 @ MINN (15 Units) Opening Line - TENN +5.5 Weather: Dome - 58/F 63%% Public on MINN Spot: Titans (Big Edge) Minnesota coming off a big emotional divisional win in the Detroit's own stadium. Now they sit tied for 1st in their division with a great 3-1 (.750) record. Titans coming off a very tough divisional loss and losing by a large margin (24pts) now sitting a dreary 1-3 (.250) desperatly needing this win to stay in it. Relevant Trends The Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. The Vikings are 1-7-0 (12%) ATS as a favorite since 2011. The Vikings are 0-4-0 (0%) ATS after a win since 2011. *Keeping trends in recent times because of significant changes to the team. Write-Up + Analysis The Titans key defensive Linebacker, McCarthy, is finally back and ready to help this bad defense out. He's a key player on the defense that coordinates on the field and keeps the defense in check. He will play a vital role in slowing down peterson this weekend. The vikings do have Percy Harvin, the playmaker, as well. However, I believe the Titans showed some solid improvement compared to how they fared versus the Lions. They gave up 442yds to the lions on that game playing 2 deep and allowing so much in the open field. The defensive coordinator recognized that and fixed it vs the Texans. The titans only allowed 202 passing yds vs Schaub & Co. The only reason it got out of hand was because of the 2 pick sixes. If you watched the game, you saw that the titans were holding strong against them until mid 3rd QTR. We also saw Chris Johnson showing he's still got it vs a tough texans D'. Bottom line is I liked what I saw; and if the titans come ready to play and wanting it like they did vs the lions, I really love the +5.5pts here in this spot. The titans need this win here as they're season is going down the drain without it. If anything, bet on the titans showing up in this spot. I have the titans undervalued here giving us some nice line value. A key match-up to watch is going to be Minnesota's key LB, Greenway, against CJ. I actually do like Hasselbeck's chances against a weak Vikings secondary. The vikings have had a pretty weak schedule so far going against some mediocre teams besides SF of course. (It was a bad spot for SF in that game and Alex had his extreme rarity interception). They have been getting their special teams to do a lot of carrying. Christian Ponder 2nd year in the NFL (Plays at his best when behind/in the 2ndhalf) 2011: 70.1QBR - 6.4avg yds per pass 54.3%completion 2012: 97.7QBR - 6.7avg yds per pass 68.3%completion WK1 (WIN) - JAC (26-23) 105.5QBR WK2 (LOSS) - @ IND (20-23) 114.6QBR WK3 (WIN) - SF (24-13) 94.7QBR WK4 (WIN) - @ DET (20-13) 71.2QBR Ponder's season thus far has been a really good one. Almost too good. I'm not buying ponder keeping this up. He's just not that good. This is a great spot for ponder to fall flat and come back to reality. Best of Luck with your picks Everyone! |
remkg | 2 |
|
||||
Thanks for all your time and effort this nice breakdown of teams.
I was looking at the Rams/Cards game on TNF If you look at team stats > rushing column > arizona's run offense it's ranked #5 but its #29th in the league
|
si1ly | 81 |
|
||||
BOL Everyone.
|
remkg | 5 |
|
||||
Adding 2Team 6PT Teaser GB -1.5 KC +7.5 | 10 Units
GB -1.5 @ Home The saints are absolutely wretched on defense: PTS ALLOWED: 34.0 (30th) YDS ALLOWED: 477.3 (Last) PASS YDS ALLOWED: 262.3 (25th) RUSH YDS ALLOWED: 215.0 (Last) The saints cannot be successful with a defense this bad. Brees will be forcing the ball into spots where he would not normally throw because of how bad his defense is trying to play "catch-up." On top of that, the head coach being gone is a major factor in play calling and leadership the saints desperately long for. The guy is so good, and I think many people underestimated how much he is really worth. Not to mention Vilma, a big part of the Saints D' is gone. Aaron Rodgers is playing at an 87QBR which is unlike him. Last year, he averaged 122QBR per game. He's played 3 tough defenses in a row this year. Expect Rodgers to show up big with big time passes to all of the many weapons GB has to offer. The saints will not play as good on the road AND outside on grass, which is making the spot for the saints look worse negating most of the 3 loss position they're in. However, GB, too, is coming off a really tough loss against the hawks in their home dome with a terrible game-changing call by the refs. KC +7.5 at home vs Chargers I absolutely love this play. Great spot for KC sitting at 1-2 tied for last in the division. KC is #1 in the league in offensive yards per game--don't underestimate them. They need this win more then SD does. They have their home dome with tons of noise. Rivers inconsistent. Don't discredit the chargers as they are coming off an embarrassing blowout loss in their home dome. However, all the trends favor KC, and it's clear there's tons of value here. The trend that is profitable year end year out: West coast teams travelling to east coast to play an early 1PM (EST) game at Kansas city. It will feel like 10AM for San Diego (Psychologically) which will most likely show a slow start for them. Kansas City (Home) vs Chargers last 3 seasons:
|
remkg | 5 |
|
||||
Record Correction: YTD: 1-0 Starting BankRoll: $5000.00 Current BankRoll: $5180.00 1UNIT = $20 +$180.00
|
remkg | 5 |
|
||||
Hello Everyone. Week 4 of the NFL 2012! YTD: 1-1 Starting BankRoll: $5000 Current BankRoll: $5031.82 1UNIT = $20 +$31.82 Now that the season is underway, and we are getting deep into it; I will put more effort and bring out more solid plays with better analysis. Week 4 Plays: ST LOUIS RAMS +3 (HOME) -110 | 30 UNITS SEATTLE (2 - 1) at ST LOUIS (1 - 2) - 9/30/2012, 1:00 PM RAMS +1.5 open, now RAMS +3 62% Public on Seahawks Weather: Dome Game Major Trends: As Away Team 14-28-1 33.3% (One of The worst in the NFL when playing "Away") West Coast travelling to the East coast - Very early game for the Hawks. it's 10AM for Seattle Seahawks Players. It's 12PM for the Saint Louis Rams Players in their Home Dome. Expect a slow start from the Hawks because of this. RAMS 2-0 ATS in dome games this year. biggest game of the year for STL. Seattle coming off huge victory vs GB feeling amazing. This is a really great spot for the Rams. They are coming home off a double digit loss to a tough bears run D' in the bears home stadium. The rams were looking ahead for a very important matchup against their divisional opponent seahawks. This is an absolute must-win for the rams or they can kiss their season good-bye. They are currently sitting last in their division and are going to be throwing the kitchen sink at Seattle. Expect steven jackson to show up and pound the hawks Run D' Another imporant thing to note is Seattle is losing that extra day of rest/practice from playing on monday night against GB. It was obvious they should've lost the game, people are going to overvalue the hawks now because of defeating two tough opponents, GB & Dallas. The key here is they were at Home, and they are an entirely different team at home--More so, than any other team in the NFL. Not to discredit Seattle, they do have one of the best secondaries in the NFL. Lynch is a good solid RB as well, expect him to put up numbers like he always does. However, it won't be enough as the Rams have such a big advantage in spot they are in. The hawks almost always fall flat on the road, but they must also endure psychological aspect of a 10AM playtime. Seattle playing on a short week after having to fly cross the country. As tough as they are at home, they're only 5-13 on the road since the start of the 2010 season; 0-2 as road favorites of a field goal or less. EAGLES -2 (HOME) -110 | 15 UNITS NY GIANTS (2 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (2 - 1) - 9/30/2012, 8:30 PM Open: Eagles -2, current: no change Public Betting: 76% on GIANTS Weather: A slight chance of showers before 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. Light west wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Major Trends: EAGLES are 18-5 ATS after losing by 15 or more. PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons Public Perception is riding high on the Giants (Doesn't this seem familiar?) The Public are jamming the giants as the road underdogs. It's obvious they are undervaluing the eagles here and overvaluing the giants. After seeing the eagles get beaten badly by arizona, nobody wants these guys. The giants coming off a blowout victory over carolina back to feeling dominant again. Sell high buy low--one of the fundamentals of smart investing. I'm loving this play because the eagles are in an amazing spot. Giants coming off blowout victory, eagles coming off blowout loss in an epic battle of divisional rivalries. a very solid tough eagles D' at home will be able to slow the giants down. Desean Jackson also has a good matchup and will get the 70+yds + TD The eagles need to win this game more then the giants do because of scheduling. If the giants get ahead here and win this one, it's going to be really hard to win the division as the eagles. The Eagles want it more, are in a much better spot at home, and have a better, more solid defense than the giants. Eagles get it done @ home
|
remkg | 5 |
|
||||
---Bucs vs Giants (Home) Giants -1.5 The spot the giants are in is a good one here. Why? Super Bowl Champions getting reality checked losing game 1--Coming off the loss fired up to go back to their home stadium vs a Bucs team that is decent at best. Freeman continues to show he is only a little bit better than mediocre--throwing only 138 Yds (AT HOME) vs an "OK" Panthers D'. They have a Decent run game as well, but Bradshaw is just as good. It's clear NY is the better team all around, QB | DL | WRs | Coaching and the list goes on. Cruz is an incredible WR; Nicks, also solid. I have a strong feeling Cruz will show up for this game and not drop passes like he did in wk1 (unlike him). The giants outperform the Bucs on many levels and they have Home Field Advantage-- I do know that the giants tend to play better on the road. However, I don't think that will be a factor in this game. The Bucs Pass D' is suspect and I know Eli will throw quite well against these guys. The secondary of the Giants is banged up, yes. However, it is Josh Freeman and he will be Josh Freeman. The giants Pass Rush is incredibly strong (Jason Pierre-Paul--Game-Changer), which makes me very confident that the Bucs will be no match for a good Giants team in a great spot at home. Bet: $200 at -110 odds Starting Bankroll: $5000
|
remkg | 4 |
|
||||
created a topic
2012 NFL Plays | Updated Every Week with Analysis & Detailed Write-Ups
in NFL Betting Hello Everyone! Remkg here. Starting up my NFL 2012 thread of analysis and plays. I only have 1 play for this week: It's a 6.5pt Teaser laying -110 on the Bengals | Giants. Bengals -1.5 Giants -1.5 -Cuts through 7 and 3 (key numbers) on both teams for +Expected Value. -Both Teams have home field advantage coming off the loss. ---Browns vs Bengals (Home) (Divisional Game) Bengals -1.5 I see value in the bengals here where public perception is riding high on the overrated Ravens--with only 1 home game everyone thinks they're going to win the ship now. Bengals--mediocre team with some decent components throughout (AJ & BenJarvus).
The browns Defense suffered a big hit losing their best Cornerback, joe haden, out for 4 games due to a suspension. (Guy guarding desean jackson in wk1 vs the eagles completely shutting him down). On top of that, sheldon Brown, their 2nd best Cornerback has a shouldar injury which will cause him to underperform. This will surely boost the pass game of the bengals allowing Aj Greene & Dalton to connect well, easily 70+yds and a TD. The bengals do also have benjarvus green-ellis whom is a decent RB. He showed he can run the ball even against a tough ravens run defense gaining 100+yds that game--impressive. *Look for a noticeablely weaker Browns Secondary this week. Something that must not be overlooked is that the Bengals did play on Monday night so they will have less rest and less practice than the Browns. Really, The only thing that concerns me a bit is trent richardson. However, All the bengals have to do is focus on stopping him and it's over for the browns because they have absolutely no offense--on top of that, we haven't even seen trent do much in wk1 (Keep in mind it was Vs a Physical Good Eagles Defense though). Also, Trent will do worse than normal due to weeden being terrible and not keeping drives alive. It's pretty safe to say Weeden won't do anything as he is the worst starting QB in the NFL--5.1QBR (Ouch.) I really like the Bengals here for any Survivor Pools as well--great future value. ATS Trends are favoring the Browns here (not by a lot). That is factored into this play as well.[/SIZE] |
remkg | 4 |
|
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so. It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly. Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality. Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it. As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.