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Congrats to those that went with SF - not only did they win in the last few seconds, they also covered the - 3.5
Like I said, it would take a "perfect storm" of INT's, Fumbles, a little luck and winning ugly and that the Saints needed to double or help out on Vernon Davis with a Safety and to put their best cover corner on Crabtree and to not let Gore chew up the clock. Gore had 88 yards on 13 carries, but half of those yards came on one carry and they still count, but they don't chew up the clock. Either way, Saints DC Gregg Williams laid an egg on the 49ers last possession by playing soft and playing man on man on Vernon Davis with a LB on the pass on the left sideline, while he had 4 dbs playing about 50 yards downfield. Baffling. Despite the 5 Turnovers, the Saints still hung 32 pts. on the vaunted SF Defense, in SF They will probably luck out and not have to go into Green Bay in mid-January. The 49ers have a good Defense, but not a great Defense, as Great Defenses don't give up 36 pts. at home in the playoffs. The TO's bailed them out, and the helmet to helmet hit halfway thru the 1Q was questionable and could've easily turned out to be a game changer had a ref throw a flag. Regardless, Congrats on the hard-fought win, but I've been watching the NFL for a long time and teams like SF eventually run out of luck and ends up being the team that turns it over 5x, then their fans wail about how "they gave it away" and how "they should've have won" and the "refs screwed them out of a trip to the SB" etc... My prediction of Saints 27- 49ers 23 was looking solid for most of the last quarter, then things got crazy. |
westcoastt | 93 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Bobcat36: With all due respect, I see a lot of east coast bias not giving a lot of respect to the best defense in the NFC. Best special teams too. Best turnover margin in the NFL as well. With home field advantage. Outdoors (which, if you take out the name Saints and just look at the numbers, everyone would concede is a major weakness for the visiting team) is a huge factor. Jussayin Yeah, Drew Brees' only has a 100.7 QB rating on the road. Awful. BTW, can you source your claim that the 49ers have the best Special Teams in the NFL this season? And having the best Turnover margin in the regular season almost always equates into a loss in the playoffs: https://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_5207_Turnover_triumph_a_double-edged_sword_for_49ers.html My theory is that the team that gets the most TO's does so because they play a lot of bad teams that TO's the ball 2-3 times a week to everyone they play. Then when the playoffs roll around and the opposition isn't a bad team and prone to TO's, then suddenly, the 49ers don't get that extra TD or that extra possession or two in good field position. And even if they get one or even two TO's, a team like the Saints can overcome them. The Saints remind me of the 2000 Rams. Great Offense, mediocre Defense. They would turn it over 2-3 times a game, but next possession would just go out and score a TD after TD after TD They would either score a TD or turn it over. No punts, no FG's. When their FG kicker was injured, they didn't sign another one, they just went for it on 4th down in FG range, no matter how many yards they needed for a 1st. 4rd & 10 from the 33? No problem. The Saints are also good at converting 3rd downs, something like a rate of 57% success. Granted, the Saints aren't as good on the road as they are at home and the 49ers aren't as good on the road as at home either. The 49ers do have a good Defense, and they had an extra week of rest, but they aren't the Steelers of the 1970's or even the TB Bucs of the late 90's, early 2000's Their LB's are good, but Jerry Glanville's "Gritz Blitz" LB's of the late 70's are still the best, IMO That team allowed less than 10 ppg. and still holds the record for least ppg. Not even the 85 Bears, who many consider the best D ever can say that. Glanville didn't have any kind of Offense to go along with that great Defense though, as they only scored about 14 ppg. The 49ers put up good numbers against bad teams, inflating their stats. They have a good, but not a great Defense. And like I said, it will take a "perfect storm" of events like a KO/PR/Defensive return for a TD, a couple of INT's,/Fumbles, dropped passes, lots of Sacks, Penalties, a tipped pass at the LOS falling into the right hands, etc...basically "winning ugly" with a lot of help and a lot of luck. And please post the best Special Teams in the NFL stat as I haven't been able to find it. Thanks. |
westcoastt | 93 |
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Quote Originally Posted by ALEWIS7136: THE NINERS WILL COVER THAT SPREAD! I THINK THEY WILL WIN! N.O HAS THE 30TH RANKED TOUGHEST SCHEDULE, IF AND WHEN THE NINERS PUT THAT "D" ON BREES, IT WILL BE ALL OVER!! The 49ers had the 30th toughest schedule, not the Saints. They were tied for 13th toughest: https://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/35095/2011-strength-of-schedule Of course, these numbers are based on the records of opponents' 2010 record. The Rams went 7-9 in 2010, but went 2-14 in 2011, so maybe the 49ers had the 32nd "toughest" schedule" in 2011 The Cards had a better record than last year, so that might even it out a bit, but still, the above link has the 49ers at 30th, not the Saints. If you have something more up to date, please post it. |
westcoastt | 93 |
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[Quote: Originally Posted by anais71]
IF SANF -3, WHAT WOULD YOU GO? BOL NOR Saints win straight up by 4-7 points, likely more. SF Defense can only stay with the NO feirepower for so long and trading FG's for TD's will force SF to throw the ball in the 2nd half of the 2nd half, resulting in Alex Smith throwing a lot of bad passes or even a pick or two, and making Frank Gore a non-factor. SF is not a does not play well from behind, but that's exactly what they will have to do against the NO Saints. Unless Brees starts throwing INT's all over the place, something he rarely does as he has thrown less than one per game this season in against a much tougher schedule. (Based on schedule strength, SF played the 30th "toughest" opponents" NO played the 13th toughest.) SF will need the aforementioned "perfect storm" of Turnovers, ST TD's or Field Position, a fumble recovery or two, and some lucky bounces. In other words, everything will have to go their way for them to win. NO should just stack the box, double Vernon Davis and put their best cover corner on Michael Crabtree. Alex Smith gets sacked once about every 10 pass attempts, while Brees gets sacked about once every 27 pass attempts, again, Brees plays in a tougher Division and has three Pro-Bowlers on his OL, so he should have time to throw to his game-breakers and the OL should open up some lanes for his RB's as well. Yes, the 49ers have a good D, but not a great D and it is overrated IMO based on the opposition they have played and the Division they have played in. Even when they played a good team like Pittsburgh, Roth was hurt and it was obvious that his injury has adversely affected his accuracy. They say good Defense beats a good Offense, but there are too many exceptions to list. The 49ers also got a lot of Turnovers, but again, that was partly due to playing the 30th weakest schedule in the NFL - teams that likely turned the ball over against everyone they played. And here's a link to a stat about teams that live off of turnovers - for them, it's either feast or famine, and in the playoffs when they play good teams, it's almost always famine: https://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_5207_Turnover_triumph_a_double-edged_sword_for_49ers.html |
westcoastt | 93 |
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https://www.coldhardfootballfacts.com/Articles/11_5207_Turnover_triumph_a_double-edged_sword_for_49ers.html
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westcoastt | 93 |
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49ers played the 30th ranked schedule in 2011
Saints played the 12th ranked schedule in 2011 SF got a lot of turnovers because they played a lot of bad teams that turned the ball over and against everyone they played, SF included. The field is bone dry and no rain is expected and temperatures are expected to be in the low to mid - 60's. I expect them to water the field down in an attempt to slow down the Saints. It will take a perfect storm of luck for SF to win this one. Like I said, they'll keep it close for the 1st half with FG's, but trading FG's for TD's will eventually widen the gap between N.O. and S.F. and the Saints will win this one walking away..... |
westcoastt | 93 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Niners13: Saints have the 31st toughest schedule.... Source? I read that the 49ers had the 30th easiest schedule in the NFL this season while the Saints were tied for the 13th toughest schedule this season. The 49er D is good (not great), but their best chance to win is to "win ugly" - lot's of Turnovers, Gore chewing up the clock, a ST and/or Defensive TD, etc... In other words, a "perfect storm" of several things going their way for them to win. NOLA stacks the box, stops Gore and makes Alex Smith beat you. Other than Vernon Davis, there aren't isn't anyone else that scares Defenses catching the ball on the 49ers. They don't have a 1,000 yard per season receiver on their roster, and Alex Smith becomes very inaccurate under modest pressure. And let's not forget, the Saints have 3 Pro Bowlers on their OL 4 if you count their TE Brees gets sacked about once every 27 pass attempts. Smith gets sacked about once every 10 pass attempts. Saints score 24-27 pts. while SF scores 17-20 as they have their usual difficult time putting the ball in the End Zone, as evidenced by the 33 or so TD's they've scored on Offense all year and the 44 or so FG's (going by memory) they've had to settle for. The Saints have scored something like 64 TD's and have done so in a much tougher division. The 49ers won't be have the luxury of padding their Defensive stats against the likes of the Rams, Seahawks and Cards 6x per season. BTW, the 49ers lost to AZ, squeaked by SEA, PHI and the Rams had them on the ropes with their 3rd string QB and might have taken the game to OT had he not been injured on the final drive in 49er territory late in the game and the Rams had to bring in their 4th string QB who has never thrown a pass in the NFL It was the 49ers that played one of the softest schedules in the league, not the Saints. The 49ers will keep it close for a half or so by grinding it out and keeping the Saints Offense on the sidelines and kicking a few FG's, but they will only be able to do that for only so long. Unless they score a ST or Defensive TD, they don't have a chance. Even if they do, they still won't be able to trade FG's for TD's and expect to win unless they get every break and get very lucky. Brees "only" has a 100.7 QB rating on the road, so they won't put up their usual 34 ppg, but the score will be something like: Saints 27 49ers 17 The Saints are peaking right now and are rolling. I'm aware the 49ers haven't given up very many points in their last few home games, but they haven't really played anyone either during that stretch. Even though it hasn't rained in weeks and won't between now and gametime, expect the usual shenanigans and for the 49ers to water down the field in an attempt to slow down the speedy, superior Saints Offense. Bring your long cleats. You'll probably need them as that field will be slick as snot. |
westcoastt | 93 |
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