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I agree with several of you about the Giants. I need the Lions +13 to complete my winning teaser tonight. The Giants offense is, indeed, dysfunctional. Even with Beckham in there last season, the play calling was terrible. True, the offensive line isn't that good, and they don't have a legitimate running back, but with their receivers and a two time Super Bowl winning QB, they should be able to move the ball and score points. What's weird is that the year before last they were the 5th ranked offense in the NFL. Eli didn't have a good year last year and it's possible that he's declined, but they need to start throwing to the other receivers, not just Beckham, and they have to call better plays.
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MrMoneyBags11 | 9 |
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The Jets were horrible last week but they played well in all of the other games. They blew two games with turnovers. When Decker's out, they have struggled, not enough weapons and Geno keeps making mistakes. I'm not betting this game but it all comes down to the Jets offense. If they can move the chains, they can cover. If they struggle to get first downs, their defense will get tired and Denver will cover.
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Covers | 41 |
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Quote Originally Posted by gambleholic63: God....my head is spinning trying to pick a winner on this game. I can see Peyton having a huge game, but I can see Lynch and Seattle controlling the clock and keeping Manning off the field. Before the AFC/NFC title games, the books had this game slated at Sea -2.5 along with the spreads on the other 3 possibilities. Seattle was going to open at -4 vs. New England while SF/Den was slated as a pick. So what does all this mean? The 5 point swing on the projected line and the current lines seems to suggest Seattle is the value play? But bet against Manning? ......just a tough game to cap no matter how much you like either side. Denver faced tough offenses all year and they were 7th against the rush (Seattle was 8th). Denver can pull their linebackers in on 1st and 2nd down to stop Lynch, Seattle won't be able to do that. I don't see how Moreno doesn't run for more yards than Lynch.
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Covers | 409 |
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Quote Originally Posted by forkball: Look at Denver's schedule this year. Toughest game was against the Pats. Denver had an easy road to the Super Bowl as well defeating a depleted Patriot team that featured Brady overthrowing wide open receivers and their best corner guy out early with injury. Now look at Seattle's schedule. Quality wins not even close. Wrong team favored here as Wilson and company back yard football their way to a Super Bowl victory. Seattle 31 Denver 17 8 of Denvers regular season games were against playoff teams. Seattle, five of their games were against playoff teams.
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Covers | 409 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13: My gosh Pando one of the most reasonable posts this week Thank you.
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Covers | 409 |
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I like Denver to cover 2.5 points. My analysis is at handicappingwinners.com. Denver's D is much better than the stats look. They often give up yards and points after the game is already out of reach because of their big offense. Right now Denver's Defense is playing very well. They are going to blitz. Everyone talks about how athletic Wilson is but the fact is, he was sacked 44 times this season and also lead the league in pressured passes. Denver's no huddle offense will also take its toll because Seattle won't be able to substitute that much. Denver will control the clock. I see a low scoring game but Denver's defense holds Seattle to under 20 points and Denver covers.
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Covers | 409 |
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I meant to say, Patriots lost 4 games and two were to teams that did not have a winning record (Miami and Jets).
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Covers | 186 |
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Both defenses are pretty good but not great. But Denver has a lot more weapons on offense, no comparison. They have no excuse here, they have more talent than the Patriots. Of course, the Patriots often beat teams that have more talent than them since they are so well coached and execute so well. Another factor, Denver definitely played a tougher schedule. 7 of their games during regular season were against playoff teams, Patriots only played 3 games against playoff teams. Broncos only lost 3 games and they were all to playoff teams. Denver lost 4 games and two of those were to teams that did not have winning records (Jets/Miami). Denver covers if they don't make too many mistakes.
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Covers | 186 |
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I agree with MGM about Flynn. I was surprised he didn't start last week, he knows the offense and in his two prior starts for the Pack Flynn was sensational, plus he has a lot more experience than the other guy. If I knew that Flynn would get in today I would bet the Packers.
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Covers | 41 |
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MGM, Carolina has scored over 30 points five times this year. I don't know where you get "very, very bad offense." Plus they have the second ranked defense. Patriots are always tough due to their coaching plan but Carolina has more talent.
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Covers | 197 |
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The lines have nothing to do with sucking people in. I don't understand why so many bettors think that the bookmakers set lines to try to trap people. They set lines to try to get the same amount of people to bet on both sides, simple as that. In this case they know that even though the Patriots went to the Super Bowl last year they are struggling now and therefore the Bills have a good chance at home. Consequently, they will not make the Patriots a big favorite because if they did, all of the money would go on Buffalo and if Buffalo covered they would take a beating. Simple as that.
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Covers | 65 |
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I think aceofspades stole his analysis from my website, geez.
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Covers | 245 |
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I picked the Giants + 3.5 on my website handicappingwinners.com where I am 70% in the playoffs and 60% for the year (on spot plays). My early analysis is on the site but I'll have my complete analysis by Friday. I think the line could drop below 3. The line is based on how the bookmakers think the general public will bet, but the actual line, based on each team's strengths, match ups, stats, etc., tshould be either even or the Giants favored by 1 to 2 points. The Giants have more speed, and a better defense.
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Covers | 245 |
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By the way, I hit 58% against the spread on my www.handicappingwinners.com website so far this year. The picks are free.
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Covers | 122 |
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The Ravens offense didn't look good against the Texans because the Texans have an outstanding defense. The Ravens had a tougher schedule than the Pats this year. Against playoff teams, they played 7 games and won all of them, they beat the Steelers twice, they beat Houston twice, they beat the Bengals twice, and they beat the 49ers 16-6. The Pats only played 4 games against playoff teams and lost two of them, one to the Steelers, one to the Giants, and they beat Denver twice.
There are several keys to beating New England, one is to put pressure on Brady. Another is to throw long passes to test their weak secondary. Flacco has the arm strength to do that. And of course the other is to run the ball and keep Brady off the field. The Ravens can do all of that. |
Covers | 122 |
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Great post aimlow. The crushing defeat thing is nonsense. The Giants lock up a playoff spot with a win and they play very well on the road. Taking the points.
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Covers | 37 |
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The problem isn't the Jet defense. I was at the game Sunday, amazing game, but the offensive play calling is the problem, the Jets play ball control offense and it's hard to cover big spreads when you run the ball.
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Covers | 60 |
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I'm a pro horseracing handicapper and I've picked the SB correctly 6 years in a row on my sharphorses.com website (my analysis will be printed next week). This year my pick is the Steelers - 6.5 and I will bet today because I expect the line to move up. Big key is Hines Ward being healthy, but either way, the Steelers will do a good job against Fitzgerald and control the clock.
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Mr_Covers | 419 |
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The Browns defense is terrible, they can't tackle or stop anything. Indy's defense has come around, secondary is quick. Colts should roll by more than 5.
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Mr_Covers | 57 |
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Longtime Jets fan but this is a tough test for them. The Titans protect the QB and the Jets have no rush, plenty of time for Collins to pass, and they will move the ball on the ground against the Jets. The Titans will also get some key sacks and possible turnovers. Bottom line, the Titans are clearly a better team, Jets have the offense, but not the defense.
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Mr_Covers | 58 |
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