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mlb.tv is free for 10 days if you want it
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edwardjohn70 | 8 |
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I'll take a shot at +3500
We'll see what will happen..
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clsmooth | 22 |
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which book?
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clsmooth | 22 |
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Boom, over in Toronto)))
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si1ly | 62 |
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Quote Originally Posted by ZonaCats: score draw - any draw from 1-1 and over 2-2 (etc)Does anyone know how a Winning Margin - Score Draw bet is different than just taking the Full Game Draw? any draw - 0-0 included
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vanzack | 1601 |
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Van, thanks for the heads up about Croatia, This is my dark horse for the tournament, I have them at 45/1 to win it all)
1. Greece +.5 at +112 for a small 1 unit. Most likely result Greece 0 Poland 0 . (written up in post #5) 2. Russia to win at +128 for 3 units. Most likely result Russia 2 Czech 0. (written up in post #5) 3. Netherlands / Denmark - Not much has changed since 2010 when these teams met in the first round of the world cup. The Dutch won that game 2-0, and pretty much dominated. The Dutch side looks a lot like it did in 2010 - with their weakness at the back - but tons of midfield talent and scoring punch to spare. Denmarks weakness continues to be their defense - with a very average and slow back 4 - especially in the middle. I know Eriksen is getting a lot of love - and it is deserved - but I dont see him making enough of an impact to counterbalance the defense. The Dutch have Germany and Portugal on deck - this is not a typical "not to lose" first round game - this is a must win for them. I see them coming out with guns blazing. Im on the Dutch -170 for 2 units. Most likely score 2-0 (again). 4. Germany / Portugal - I have Germany winning the tournament. They tick all of the boxes for me - no real weaknesses, strong in midfiels, defense, and scoring - team cohesion (Bayern connection), and adaptable style of play. Unfortunately for Portugal - they havent proven to have the team unity that they need to do well in intl tournaments lately - they are loaded with talent once again - but I fear that unfortunately for them the story after the tournament will once again be disappointment. A lot of that has to do with the group - it is a huge task to get past the Dutch and Germany - but some of it must have to do with having players like Ronaldo and Nani that dont play well together. And despite Ronaldos success scoring in spain - it hasnt translated to the intl level - in WC 2010 Portugal scored 0 goals in 3 of their 4 games - scoring only in the N Korea game. Im going to have a small wager on Germany -.5 -105 for 1 unit, and the under 2.5 -107 for 1 unit. Most likely result 1-0 Germany. 5. Spain / Italy - Spain is the tournament favorite - but I do see some cracks in the armour of the team that has dominated intl soccer for 4 years. Some key injuries (Puyol, Villa) in key positions might play a large role in this tournament. I also buy in to the theory that these guys have been going at this for 4 years straight - long club seasons packed with high level games and summers filled with intl duy - there has to be an issue of runnign out of gas - just ask Pep Guardiola. Im not downplaying that Spain - when on - plays the most attractive midfield football available - but even in WC2010 their lack of scoring punch (with Villa) was evident. They played in 7 game - won their last 4 by 1-0 scores - and lost 1-0 in their opening game, and scored 2 in the other two games. So they won the tournament by scoring 8 goals in 7 games. I love that Spain is made up primarily of players that know each other very well - but despite this they stil lost in their opener of WC10 to Switzerland. Italy come in with no expectations - a fresher group of younger players - and a manager that plays a slightly less defensive posture than previous Italians. But if Spain is the current kings of the 1-0 win - Italy was the original - the masters. Given this group - and that it is an opening game - I just see a very non-open midfield dominated game with a lack of scoring chances. I will be on Italy +.5 and +1 -105 for 2.5 units. Most likely final 0-0. 6. Croatia / Rep of Ireland - Croatia are somewhat hard to figure for me. They have some really good players in key spots - and some weaknesses too. They often sit back and defend and counter - and sometimes play an open style. Much of this depends on Modric - maybe more than anyone else in this tournament - he is the absolute key to this team and any chance they have. There are rumors about his fitness not being up to snuff - but who knows for sure - I do know that if he is not 100% this team is not going to do well. Olic got hurt in the last week - so Jelavik will start up front - and I do see that as a significant loss. The defense is older and slower - but solid. They could go on a run, or they could bomb out - just hard for me to predict. Ireland might be the most anti-football defensive side in the tournament. Their goal is not to be scored on - period. Trapatoni (Italian Mgr) has all but said this - and it is probably their best chance of doing well here. The Greeks in 2004 proved it can be done - as Chelsea did in the CL this year. My issue is the lack of quality - even on defense - for the Irish. Dunne (aston Villa) and St Ledger (leicester City) anchor the defense - and both are ordinary in my opinion. In fact, most fo the squad is pretty ordinary - made up of midtable Pemier league players - there reaally isnt a single player on this squad that you would consider world class in their prime. Im going to be on Croatia -.5 +120. I also would favor the under. Most likely result croatia 1-0.
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vanzack | 1601 |
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source?
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I-Got-5-On-It | 27 |
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look at the tread I started yesterday
https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=36&sub=100784816 |
HeadOverHeart | 31 |
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what do you guys think now?
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kshifrin | 22 |
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You: ok please give me the confirmation # for this chat
Leana: for the winnings and yes, you do get the betting amount back Your reference ID for this chat is LTK61106778187X. If you need to contact us again in relation to this matter once we have finished chatting, please quote this ID. |
kshifrin | 22 |
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You: and I do get my original stake back correct?
Leana: if you win the bet yes |
kshifrin | 22 |
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from the live chat with the sportsbook -
Leana: I'm sorry for the delay. I'll be right with you. Leana: In the event of a dead heat (a tie) in a Future wager, stakes will be divided by the number of selections who tied, with the divided stake settled at full odds. Leana: If the tie was a betting option, then the dead heat rule does not apply. The Dead Heat Rule only applies to Future Wagers that didn't have a tie listed as a betting option. Leana: Example: If there is a 3 way tie for the Top Scorer in a Football game then your winnings are calculated by taking your stake, dividing it by 3, and multiplying that amount by the odds on your betting ticket. |
kshifrin | 22 |
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It's not a Golden Boot, they have is as a "Top Goal Scorer" with a "Dead Heat Rule" applied. Why would they even have Forlan in the list if he can't win it now?
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kshifrin | 22 |
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: as they told me "dead heat rule" is that they will pay the winning but it will be cut for how many players are in the tied spotWhat is the "dead heat rule" exactly? There will be a Golden Ball awarded to only one player. There are tiebreakers. In fact - Meuller is ahead of Forlan right now so it is impossible for Forlan to win it. It doesnt surprise me at a book like sportsbook.com to have a dead runner up there, but you better get clarification. |
kshifrin | 22 |
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At sportsbook.com they have top scorer with a dead heat rules as follows (all 4 players with 5 goals now)
villa -125 snejder +225 muller +650 forlan +650 I thought if I put Villa and Snejder you can get a win/win situation because of the odds. The only possible way to lose both wagers (Villa and Snejder) if Robben scores 4 goals (which is not really possible) Is this correct or am I missing something? |
kshifrin | 22 |
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Quote Originally Posted by neilsy25: I checked 2010 up to date via vegasinsider.com it looks like there where 5 streaks of 7 overs (and more) - Baltimore, KC, Zona, Colorado and LADyes.. i guess i worded it wrong..but the stats are still the same, using the query on sportsatabase season=2010 and p:O and pp:O and ppp:O and pppp:O and ppppp:O and pppppp:O and ppppppp:O how did you get only 3? |
neilsy25 | 46 |
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Quote Originally Posted by neilsy25: I guess If it went to 7 overs - the series is a loss, why do you consider 8 games? Did some querying on sportsdatabase , looking into the scenario of waiting till a team has hit 3 straight overs, chasing under the next 4 .and the numbers came out VERY profitable . I know this is nothing groundbreaking, people have talked about these kind of chases before..but the numbers look very good, almost TO good,makes me think i may be missing something .. below is based on using the grand martingale for a 4 game chase (1-3-7-15) meaning each loss is a loss of 26 units .. for simplicity purposes i am counting each win as 1 unit however with the grand martingale, wins are often more than one unit ..so here are the numbers.. 2010 to date 247 streaks of 3 overs - 3 have gone to 8 games - Profit= 247 - (3*26)=164 units 2009 489 streaks of 3 overs 14 went to 8 overs Profit = 489 - (14*26) = 125 units 2008 455 streaks of 3 overs 4 went to 8 overs Profit= 455( 4*26) = 341 units 2007 484 streaks of 3 overs 9 went to 8 overs Profit = 484 - ( 9*26) = 250 units 2006 582 streaks of 3 overs 8 went to 8 overs Profit = 582 - (8*26) = 374 units 2005 457 streaks of 3 overs 18 went to 8 overs Profit = 457 - (18*26) = -11 units
I also tried the opposite (chasing after 3 unders.)..but it wasnt nearly as profitable. pushes do factor in, and may end up in another chase loss or 2 ..otherwise , what am i missing ?? |
neilsy25 | 46 |
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I would take Germany+0.5 and hope for England extra time goal (or penalty kicks)
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easymoney8474 | 10 |
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Van, I have Swiss-Spain-Chili-Honduras on +1300
Is there is anyhow I can hedge it or just let it ride and hope that Swiss will blow out Honduras? |
vanzack | 971 |
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Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Van, I have the same bet Africa not to advance, but I got it at +1700 (some bookie at my original country - Russia). The question is - what is the best way to hedge it now when it seems to be only Ghana can kill you? I feel very lucky to escape that S Korea game.... And now my Africa not to advance is really down to Ghana and Algeria - I could hit +1200 on that one.... Good day.
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vanzack | 971 |
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