QUOTE Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:
1. Taking halftime lines based on the original game line isn't an exact science and shouldn't be your only method of capping. The only reason it is working (live betting is still relatively new, remember) is because Joe Public gets tricked into thinking the in-game vibes will continue. Once they realize that the original game line is more times than not, very accurate, they will stop betting with their gut and do what you are doing and then these plays will diminish.
2. Chasing will kill you. If you lose four bets in a row, it does NOT make your fifth game strong or more likely to win so you shouldn't be betting more. Stick to Kelly and you'll be much better off.
Thank you for your responses. It is nice to have intellectual conversation about psychology of sports gambling for a change.
To your first point...betting halftime lines based on original is far from an exact science but I do bet it predicated on the 1 fact that odds maker have all the information to do their jobs well. I primarily focus on totals because I feel there is more mathematical certainty that goes into those lines based on reliable averages.
Now if a 146 total ( uconn / nova from monday ) is 22-21 at half with a 2nd half total of 75 giving me a total of 118 I view it simply as I have a 26 pt discount, or advantage from the player that bet the game before it started. It may not be exact science, but I know that at halftime if you had the choice you would much rather be holding a ticket that says over 118 than over 146. Basing my plays solely on the numbers also takes any emotions and limits that amount of pregame time and energy i spend on formulating successful picks. There is very little bias in it other than knowing the style and pace teams play with....so combine that with an extremely low or high halftime total and it further validates your wager. I guess for my money...in essence I am betting on the odds maker doing their job.
As to your point about Joe public...it is well taken but you have much more faith in the public than I do. I know the public to be band wagon jumpers who love to be late to the party. They will always push those lines up n up n up. Every In-game for me is a mini story of a market crash waiting to happen...just have to be able to pinpoint the tops n the bottoms.
To your 2nd point...which I hear very loud n clear. It will not kill me and I will explain why...but at the same time if may not be in my best interest, but I will let you know at the end of my results.
I have 50k bankroll :
my objective is to make 500 / day. So 1 unit to me = 500
1unit bet = 1%
1st progression = 500
2nd = 1000
3rd = 2000
4th = 4000
5th = 8000
= 15500 is total risk or approx 31 % of bankroll ( not going to kill me to lose 30 % of bankroll to achieve my goal everyday of 500 $ )
I m in round 10 right now and up a little over 5k in last 10 days... I ll let you know my final say on it down the road....in the back of my head are the words "use the kelly criterion..you ll be better off" haha