kiidvegas

Member Since:January 2011
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Keep up the good work Trini.I respect anybody willing to put up his stats for the benefit of trying to help others out....do your thing.

I m not a systems player and not much into reverse pyramiding as money mgmt strategy but i have found myself of late doing your same NBA under/ under for NCAA hoops. State of the division college game is the worst Ive seen in 30 years....coaches cant coach and the players are lucky to hit the rim much less make a basket after they ve run the clock down standing at half court for 25 secs....brutal to watch.  Great to profit on... 

Keep grinding.  "When you hit the quicksand...you have to claw your way out."


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QUOTE Originally Posted by KktdocT:


..........................


Let me get this straight:


  You, specifically, went on here "to look for your buddy's post on a bad future for the BCS for next year" and you happened to stumble upon my post in Gaming Industry?  Okay, bud.  Your story is dwindling down the rabbit hole further and further.  I know, if I was "to look for a buddy's post on a future" I wouldn't be in the Gaming Industry forum.


Then, you just have the audacity to comment because I was scamming Bodog? Not only that, you're telling me that because I'm bad-mouthing Bodog that will screws things up for scammers like you who are trying to do the same thing?


Here's my impression of you:


You either work for Bodog or you are the scum of Bodog.


For your information, I posted the stuff only to point out the loop-holes that Bodog can take advantage of its customer.  And, there are many customers with Bodog.  Not only will this bring light to their eyes, but it will give them a precautionary ways of doing business with Bodog. 


For you to even mentioned "I was scamming Bodog" is absurd.  If any scamming had been done, it was the other way around.  Just because you labeled yourself as a "scammer" (stated by you) does not mean there are others out there like you.


So, fuck off.  Bitch.


 


Wow...what a fuckin thread.  Guy is definitely on Bodogs payroll.. he has zero cred in this thread. 

I m new to covers...but I ve been sports gambling 20+ years.  This thread makes me feel lucky I basically live at the M Casino in Las Vegas and don't have to deal the hassles of illegitimate offshore crooks.  You couldn't pay me to send your money to these people.

An experience like this should help you reevaluate how to get your setup even more official than it is.  You know the saying...not all money is good money.  Personally, if I can't get paid immediately following the game or my nights session I want no part of the action.  I could have a 20k weekly credit line if i wanted but to wait until the weeks end for my money from streets is too unofficial.  I can tell you are serious about your action....you have to fine tune the setup like you do your betting style.

I can make a long list of what constitutes unofficial but taking a bet and telling you they are not honoring it after the game is over is about as unofficial as it gets.  I can respect an "after the play" no action cancellation as long as it is "after the play" but an "after the game" no action is criminal.  Last time I ve heard of this, it was Joe Pesci saying " I was laying the 3"  

What Bodog should have done is paid you the money they owed and closed down your account for taking a shot at their mistake.  Instead of building their credibility with players by letting word get out they are honorable but handle their business right...they choose to think like criminals that jack for a living.  That shortsighted mentality only gets you so far....its amazing how these books making millions can't have a write off expense called "our fuckups"  The book that does this first and gains an honorable rep will be the book last standing in the end.  All the volume will shift to them.

Over 500 dollar im action they ll get bad publicity which will affect them more then the thousands they throw into marketing.  Here is a 500$ idea....make the guy who kept the line up pay for the mistake !!  And I know there was much more action on this side but I m just saying....men should be responsible for their own actions. 

Great business model....when we make mistakes lets just strong arm the player.  That is called being a criminal organization.
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QUOTE Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:
I loved Chicago/Boston but sometimes, lines just look too fishy for me. (Example: Dallas last night).

aka  "too good to be true" lines
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QUOTE Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:
kiidvegas, chasing is fatalistic and WILL kill you. In your calculations, you not only made a 16% wager which is absurd, you didn't include juice. I don't have time to get into it (again) but check any one of neilsy's threads and I'm probably in there saying the same thing. Basically, the longer you do it, the more likely you are to bust completely. 

As for the live wagering, you only get good lines because Joe Public is still making them for you by betting with their guts. This will evaporate sooner than later, then how will you bet? It's better to base your wagers off of your KSA because that is determined by you, not the bookmakers.

Gotcha !! Maybe I ll just take my good fortune with it and go back to betting a dime a game ( 2% of bankroll ) or give Kelly Criterion a shot....

I ll keep my chasing to the ladies...


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QUOTE Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:
I'm surprised to hear you so positive about live wagers considering your two biggest losing days were due to live wagering. The whole "they're too good to lose" will bite you in the ass, as it already has (Patriots last weekend, Oregon a few days before, Rams last weak of the season, etc.).

You should be hedging your position through live-wagering, not overexposing it. 

or even better yet...creating ML arbitrage or nice size total middles.  There is a definite difference between gambling n speculating
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QUOTE Originally Posted by dj_destroyer:


1. Taking halftime lines based on the original game line isn't an exact science and shouldn't be your only method of capping. The only reason it is working (live betting is still relatively new, remember) is because Joe Public gets tricked into thinking the in-game vibes will continue. Once they realize that the original game line is more times than not, very accurate, they will stop betting with their gut and do what you are doing and then these plays will diminish.

2. Chasing will kill you. If you lose four bets in a row, it does NOT make your fifth game strong or more likely to win so you shouldn't be betting more. Stick to Kelly and you'll be much better off.

Thank you for your responses.  It is nice to have intellectual conversation about psychology of sports gambling for a change.

To your first point...betting halftime lines based on original is far from an exact science but I do bet it predicated on the 1 fact that odds maker have all the information to do their jobs well.  I primarily focus on totals because I feel there is more mathematical certainty that goes into those lines based on reliable averages.  
Now if a 146 total ( uconn / nova from monday ) is 22-21 at half with a 2nd half total of 75 giving me a total of 118 I view it simply as I have a 26 pt discount, or advantage from the player that bet the game before it started.  It may not be exact science, but I know that at halftime if you had the choice you would much rather be holding a ticket that says over 118 than over 146.  Basing my plays solely on the numbers also takes any emotions and limits that amount of pregame time and energy i spend on formulating successful picks.  There is very little bias in it other than knowing the style and pace teams play with....so combine that with an extremely low or high halftime total and it further validates your wager.  I guess for my money...in essence I am betting on the odds maker doing their job.

As to your point about Joe public...it is well taken but you have much more faith in the public than I do.  I know the public to be band wagon jumpers who love to be late to the party.  They will always push those lines up n up n up.  Every In-game for me is a mini story of a market crash waiting to happen...just have to be able to pinpoint the tops n the bottoms.

To your 2nd point...which I hear very loud n clear.  It will not kill me and I will explain why...but at the same time if may not be in my best interest, but I will let you know at the end of my results.

I have 50k bankroll :
my objective is to make 500 / day.  So 1 unit to me = 500

1unit bet = 1%

Round 1
1st progression =   500    
2nd                     =  1000
3rd                      =  2000
4th                      =  4000
5th                      =  8000

  =  15500 is total risk or approx 31 % of bankroll ( not going to kill me to lose 30 % of bankroll to achieve my goal everyday of 500 $ )

     I m in round 10 right now and up a little over 5k in last 10 days... I ll let you know my final say on it down the road....in the back of my head are the words "use the kelly criterion..you ll be better off" haha

GLTY


  


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QUOTE Originally Posted by KineProfessor:


Hope Not!  Hahaha

I did not.  I actually played a unit on the 1st half under with the intent of doubling up on the 2nd half IF 1st half was a loser, which it was not.  Thanks again for your solid breakdown....your pick was right but the timing was wrong.  

You want some good reading study Jesse livermore - known as the Great Bear of 1930's

3 parts to successful speculator
timing
money mgmt
emotional control

GLTY



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QUOTE Originally Posted by kreatture:


2% $200 to win $166.70

I don't know if anyone will be able to follow the in-game wagers, cuz like I said, the window is so small to get the wager in. Usually 1 quick commercial break at the longest. I liked the Under in this game originally, so with the Jets early kick-off return the Total was jumped, so we'll jump on an early inflated total.

I'll be sticking around and watching this game and looking for more opportunities. This is also a big game since it's the last win needed (Jets +11.5) to win Teaser #2, so I may look for a middle there if it looks good. We'll feel out this 1st Quarter and go from there.

The In-game is only way to go.  To each his own and I wish success for the next man but for the life of me I cant understand why people bet the game before it starts.  I realize not everyone has access to the In-game but picking off huge disparities in halftime lines from the original lines is a daily proposition.  
I post up at the M Casino in Las Vegas 5 days a week with acct ready to go for when the lines get crazy.  I actually had Seattle last week +21 +195 and +24.5 +135.
And thanks for putting me onto the Kelly Criterion...good stuff.  Personally, and most dont have the stomach for this but I prefer to to bet 1 increment...lose bet 2...lose bet 4...lose bet 8....lose bet 16.  
Picking 1 in 5 games correct while waiting for 15+ discounts on totals and 10+ on lines to make a profit of a unit a day is the best system I could devise.
Be interested to see how it works out for you...ultimately you have to have winners.  
GLTY
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Like the breakdown.  Very solid.  I will have my eye on the halftime line. Maybe I can get the total pushed even higher to 147-150 range.  

GLTY - Good Luck To You
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