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created a topic
Tony from 5Dimes, sports book owner in Costa Rica, reported missing.
in College Football https://www.vsin.com/well-known-sports-book-owner-goes-missing-in-costa-rica/#.W8aygAkmP6s.twitter https://cappingthegame.com/forum/index.php?threads/tony-from-5dimes-kidnapped.139038/ |
k97jw04 | 1 |
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I think they take UM. They'll have better wins (Ohio State, Penn State, B10 champ) and the public / media loves Michigan, Harbaugh, etc. For what its worth, I think OU would beat UM. But I don't see a scenario where Michigan wins out and doesn't get in the playoff.
Quote Originally Posted by davemsh:
Talk about overreaction....Michigan beats an overrated Wisconsin team at home and now they are in the playoff picture? Keep in mind...There could be a scenario where UM win out and OK wins out and UM get left out. If Bama/ND/Clemson goes undefeated they are locks to get in as ND beat UM already. Who do they take a 1 loss OK or UM team? 25-1 is terrible odds.. |
LB_Dirtbags | 23 |
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I agree with Thorpe, there's not any value. 25/1 means Michigan has a 1 / (25 + 1) or 1 in 26 chance of winning the title. That comes out to 3.8%. I estimated the true odds to be 57/1, and I was being favorable towards Michigan with a lot of the lines. Closer to 80/1 is probably more accurate. Below are win probabilities for each game based on estimated spreads. MSU 70.3%, based on current spread of Michigan -7 PSU 66.4% - estimated spread of PSU + 6. ESPN FPI has the teams even, I gave Michigan 3 for home field plus another 3 since the public has been all over Michigan Rutgers 100% Indiana 98% Ohio State 34.9% - game is in Columbus, ESPN FPI has OSU 2.6 points better. Add 3 for home field and call it OSU by 5.5 B10 Championship 85.1% assuming Michigan is favored by 14 Semifinal 42.6%, assuming Michigan is a 3 point dog. Final 29.7%, assuming Michigan is a 7 point dog against Alabama Multiply the percentages together and it's 1.7%. That indicates the true odds should be around 57/1 on Michigan to win it all. You can change the spreads and recalculate if you disagree with any. Use the link below to get the win probabilities. https://www.boydsbets.com/college-football-spread-to-moneyline-conversion/ |
LB_Dirtbags | 23 |
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Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:
I already took Doncic at similar odds, and Sexton when his odds were much better...I think both of these guys are NBA ready...Doncic more than Sexton, but Sexton will have full reigns of his team and will play many minutes to fill the stat sheet impressively night in night out...Doncic has been playing against grown men for a while now, so he's far ahead of all the rookies who just played in a soft college market.
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k97jw04 | 4 |
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Quote Originally Posted by holdmybeers:
id go dark horse east. wall olidipo or embiid, but i dont play this one. waiting on coach of the yr
Who do you like for Coach of the Year? |
k97jw04 | 11 |
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Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:
Quote Originally Posted by rod_steel: agree...the media will go overtop with their hype machine to prop up the east and make it more appealing for the western superstars to consider an eastern migration next offseason in order to help equal the balance of team talent...the next many years will be dominated most likely by the east once the globetrotters break up eventually...cycles like these always happen between east and westJust a hunch but think the MVP comes from the East this seasonI like Giannis Good argument for Kawhi. I'm going to add him. I agree Giannis is a strong candidate. I'm passing on him only b/c the price of 3.5 to 1 has no value, IMO. Too bad I didn't grab him at 7/1 when my book first released the numbers. Thank you both for your input. |
k97jw04 | 11 |
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Obviously these titles should all say 2018-19 Player Futures, and not 2017-18.
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k97jw04 | 3 |
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Plays: Simmons - 8/1 - 5th in the league last year with 8.2 assists. Hoping for a jump going into his 2nd year (technically 3rd) Lonzo - 100/1 - probably impossible for a Laker to lead the league considering they have LBJ, Rondo, and Lonzo. Hail mary at 100/1. He finished 9th in the league last year. Rondo - 33/1 - having a good preseason so added him. Donation |
k97jw04 | 3 |
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Took a couple longshots:
Whiteside 25/1 - not sure how motivated this guy is, but he led the league in 2016-17 Kanter 55/1 - recently moved to 15/1 so got lucky with the value. He's leading the league in preseason (small sample size, only 3 games). With Porzingis out maybe he can keep it up.
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k97jw04 | 2 |
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Haven't played any yet. ROY is a crapshoot. Considering Knox, Giles, and Doncic.
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k97jw04 | 4 |
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Quote Originally Posted by holdmybeers: id go dark horse east. wall olidipo or embiid, but i dont play this one. waiting on coach of the yr Embiid is interesting. You like him better than Simmons? I was thinking of adding one of them. I went with a few longshots. Not expecting to win, but I think these have value.
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k97jw04 | 11 |
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Doncic 3.45 to 1
Ayton 3.3 Bagley 10 Knox 7 Sexton 4.5 Jaren Jackson 12.5 Trae 10 Bamba 19 W Carter 12.5 Porter 15 Melton 50 Shai 27 Mikal B 39 Giles 50 Miles B 27 Divencenzo 39 Holiday 50 Walker 39 Z Smith 40 R Williams 50 Grayson 50 M Robinson 65 Trent 65 |
k97jw04 | 4 |
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To lead the league in Rebounds
Drummond -1.55 Deandre 3 to 1 A Davis 16 Howard 16 Love 16 Towns 16 Gobert 22 Whiteside 28 Embiid 28 Capela 34 Kanter 15 Jokic 55 Giannis 100 J Collins 100 LBJ 100 Russ 100
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k97jw04 | 2 |
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To lead the league in Assists:
Russ 1.5 to 1 Wall 1.5 Harden 7 B Simmons 8 LBJ 13 CP3 21 Jrue Holiday 33 Rondo 33 Draymond 50 Teague 50 Lowry 50 Rubio 65 Curry 65 Lillard 80 Jokic 80 Dennis Smith 100 Lonzo 100
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k97jw04 | 3 |
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Aldridge 100
Hayward 150 Cousins 200 Tatum 150 Blake 200 Porzingis 85 Booker 85 Lowry 85 Lonzo 200 Rozier 200 Love 100 Horford 200 Beal 85 Kuzma 100 Klay 85 Doncic 100 Isaiah Thomas 200 Draymond 150 Kemba 85 Drummond 250 Gasol 150 |
k97jw04 | 11 |
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Apparently this forum doesn't like posting Excel tables...
Example, Giannis 3.5 = odds of 3.5 to 1 Giannis 3.5 Anthony Davis 3.5 Harden 4 LBJ 4.5 Duran 10 Kawhi 14 Russ 20 Curry 21 Embiid 30 Kyrie 40 Simmons 28 Lillard 55 Towns 45 Wall 75 Derozan 50 D Mitchell 50 Jokic 100 Oladipo 75 Butler 100 PG 100 |
k97jw04 | 11 |
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k97jw04 | 11 |
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MVP Odds at my book. Thoughts? |
k97jw04 | 11 |
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Found the answer, at least from the South Point in Vegas. Team must play all 12 originally scheduled opponents, date of game does not matter. So #2 is Action and #3 is a Refund.
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k97jw04 | 2 |
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How will books treat refunds on season win totals due to scheduling changes as a result of the hurricanes? There are a few different situations this year:
1) Game is canceled and never gets rescheduled. Obviously its a refund b/c the team only played 11 games. Examples - UTSA, Houston 2) Team plays all 12 originally scheduled opponents, but the order of games has changed. Example - Uconn v ECU was originally scheduled for November but was moved to September 3) Game is canceled, and a 12th game is added against a new opponent, who wasn't originally on the schedule. Example - UMass game vs USF was canceled, and a 12th game was added against FIU. Logically, I would think #3 is a refund. Say a team is scheduled to play Charlotte and it gets canceled. They decide to add a game against Alabama. Then obviously that game becomes a loss instead of a potential win. #2 is a little tricky. They played all 12 originally scheduled opponents. But what if a Florida team was scheduled to play a northern school in December in cold weather. Instead the game got moved to September. It becomes a much easier game for the Florida team. A bettor could argue that a change to the order of the games impacted a team's projected win total. Anyone know how books will treat these?
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k97jw04 | 2 |
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