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Quote Originally Posted by TheGovernor11: Can anyone help me out with this? The spreadsheet (both versions) are showing four games today though there are only two official plays today. What am I missing? Thanks. Can someone point me to the spreadsheet? Thanks
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bettor2win | 2965 |
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Quote Originally Posted by jv040: who wants to share the pdf for this system. I know someone has it. Are you asking for someone to post it or pay for it?
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jv040 | 43 |
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I've read it, and it's ok. It's more of a how-to setup and operate a local sportsbook. You might look for it at a half-price bookstore.
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Vinko | 6 |
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A four game chase loss will result is a loss of 18.45 units assuming a 1 unit chase. A 3-game chase loss will lose 8.26 units
Just looking at the numbers that you provided: 4-game chase 09-10: 51-1 (+35.55 units) 08-09: 128-6 (+17.31 units) 07-08: 108-12 (-113.38 units) 3-game chase 09-10: 48-6 (-1.57 units) 08-09: 118-16 (-14.18 units) 07-08: 101-19 (-55.96 units) I don't think that this system will prove viable. |
robwalton | 190 |
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Since 2004, 0.600 teams are 249-290-18 ATS (468-89 SU) at home against sub-0.400 teams. The ATS winning percentage is 46.1%. The break even winning percentage for each team in a 2-team parlay is 52.7%.
Betting your system against the point spread is not going to be profitable in the long run. |
jv040 | 31 |
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Does anyone have historic NBA box scores in excel?
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matt4000 | 96 |
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Simon,
Thanks for the post. Does UNLV, Western Kentucky, and Rice also fit the criteria? Are there some additional filters that I'm not applying? Dog, back-to-back ATS losses, and opponent previous loss, and season points allowed<32. |
SimonSezSo | 9 |
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Where can I find Kongs filters?
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CaptainT | 27 |
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Quote Originally Posted by FreakyFresh:
Example: Blue Jays, calculated 31.5% of winning outright, so they will cover the run line (1.5) by winning straight up 31.5% of the time. Then I derive their chances of only losing by 1 run (which would cover the run line) by multiplying their chances of losing (68.5%) with the chance of a 1 run game (28.53%). This comes to 19.5%, and you add this to their chance of winning outright (31.5%) to get 51.0%. This is their expected chance of covering the run line.
Fresh, Why don't you add the underdog's chance to win to the "percentage of underdog losses by 1 run"? In looking at the data for the 2008 AL, I notice that the underdog lost by 1 run 14.69% of the time for all games. This is just 1 season and 1 league of data. o/u % Underdog loss by 1-run 7 0% (15 games) 7.5 25.33% (75 games) 8 15.7% (121 games) 8.5 13.22% (242 games) 9 15.03% (259 games) 9.5 15.15% (198 games) 10 9.42% (95 games) 10.5 13.51% (74 games) 11 13.89% (36 games) 11.5 13.33% (15 games)
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FreakyFresh | 53 |
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Fresh,
Do you have a table showing the O/U total versus the percentage of 1 run games that you can share?
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FreakyFresh | 53 |
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Does anyone have a spreadsheet of the WNBA schedule for all teams that they'd be willing to share? I have the MLB shedule to trade.
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jbrent95 | 1 |
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Thanks Andy....
I've been using the system that you're posting. I typically don't like to give 1.5 runs for a home team.
Thanks for posting.
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andy88c | 197 |
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cuss him all you want...... He was money for me in Triple-A Round Rock. He went on a hot streak and RR won 14 straight.
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lefty84hz | 6 |
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Today's play is the Mets. I understand system betting, but I'm going to sit out today because of the NYM injuries: Reyes, Church, Delgado, Beltran.....
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prof8t | 492 |
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I need one more run for the Over.
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WebberForever | 20 |
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In one of the 1st posts, you said that you were taking in the over for the Top 6 AL teams. What basis do you use for the Top 6 teams: runs scored, record, wins, or....? When you revise the top 6: monthly, daily, annually, etc..??
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donvndcn | 59 |
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A little bit of that Nolan Ryan toughness (see avatar) is perhaps rubbing off. I saw video clip on Fox Sports showing a 60+ year old Nolan throwing an 83 mph fast ball during this season's spring training. Wow!!
I couldn't do that back when I was on steriods.
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Sparky10191 | 67 |
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The starting rotation for the TEX Rangers!!! What an improvement in terms of team era and innings per start.
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Sparky10191 | 67 |
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Are you playing the largest favorite on the opening line or during the day? I saw a couple of books that had TB as a bigger favorite.
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prof8t | 492 |
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Wuss-- en fuego!
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WussieMan | 53 |
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