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Any leans for tonight beamjim? I'm sure you're on the PEI/MB Over...
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beamjim | 78 |
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Don't know for sure, but I'd guess Sask and Quebec based on what's been on already today.
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beamjim | 78 |
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Freakin' Pinnacle.... couldn't get lines this morning but now they have them out already for the afternoon draw! I've been setting my alarm for 6am Pacific just to get up and check out the AM lines so that was particularly frustrating!
I'm on N. Ont -1.5 vs NB, Alberta/NWT Under, and Manitoba -2.5 vs Quebec. |
beamjim | 170 |
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Good to see you guys all back dispensing your usual great advice!
Enjoyed betting on last year's tournament and did very well but getting those lines early was key. The AM draws in Halifax came around pretty early for me out in BC especially with lines not coming out until about 5am Pacific but hammering those -1.5 faves really paid off before a line move to -2.5. Good luck to you all again this year and let's get that cash. |
beamjim | 170 |
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Don't know why this isn't working.... sorry to clutter up your great thread!
Expect Lawson and Rask to go tonight based on matchup pages here on Covers.com |
weeble5672 | 16 |
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Quote Originally Posted by gmar55: According to the Matchup pages here on Covers, Thomas is expected to get a night off for rest in Boston and Dipietro is No word on who will start tonight in that article, but the injury doesn't sound good. At the very least I'd have Rask and Lawson probable for tonight pending official confirmation. don't know what happened there! I was saying (as these guys above have as well) that Thomas is likely out tonight due to rest and Dipietro is injured again so expect Lawson for NYI. The Thomas info is from the matchup page here on Covers for the Bos/Min game. |
weeble5672 | 16 |
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According to the Matchup pages here on Covers, Thomas is expected to get a night off for rest in Boston and Dipietro is No word on who will start tonight in that article, but the injury doesn't sound good.
At the very least I'd have Rask and Lawson probable for tonight pending official confirmation. |
weeble5672 | 16 |
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Confirming above from a separate source, Miller vs Schneider tonight in Buffalo.
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weeble5672 | 21 |
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This is like Christmas Eve tonight for me... the anticipation of yet another devastating Canucks win over the hapless Leafs has me giddy in anticipation... I might not even sleep tonight!
It'll be hard to top the last couple wins in TO though: Sundin beating his former team in the SO and then last year coming back from 3-0 down to win by 2. Go Nucks! |
happycap | 42 |
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All-in on Vancouver... the Maple Laughs haven't beat them since 2003. The Canucks know what a big game this is for their fans whereas Leafs fans are too busy crowning Nazim Kadri their saviour to even know where Vancouver is!
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Dangerbay | 34 |
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Quote Originally Posted by obes728: Went with the Huskies +7.5 (1 unit). Last road game for Stanford they traveled up north and lost. They also have a big road game next week against Arizona. This may be Locker's last chance at a big upset too. In front of the home crowd no less. You make some good points about motivation and Stanford maybe looking ahead to Arizona but that loss up north that you refer to was against Oregon, not some patsy like Wash St. or even a solid team like Oregon St. Oregon has laid a whipping on everyone so far and Stanford held a 31-24 half time lead in that one before imploding in the 2nd half. This Stanford team can put up some points which I don't think a less than 100% Locker can match. |
Covers | 10 |
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Locker isn't 100% (bruised ribs) and won't be able to run around like he usually can to escape the Stanford pass rush.
Before the season started this would have been billed as a monster showdown between QB's Locker and Luck as they were consensus #1-2 rated QB's for next year's NFL draft. While Luck has maintained his status, Locker has slipped some with his production so far. While he may have the motivation to try and outdo Luck on Saturday his body just might not be able. Washington's defense can't stop anyone and I expect Stanford's offense which has put up no less than 31 points in each game so far to outperform their average this week too. Stanford 43 - Washington 24 Looking like Over 63 but I think the best play is Stanford -7 |
Covers | 10 |
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Haha... changed the channel on the game (Canucks are on) and now LaTech has screwed my almost perfect prophecy!
Just shows how delicate the line is between winning and losing. Good news for all those Over bettors. |
VGPOP | 25 |
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Fair enough, both methods have their advantages for sure.
A 49-13 final score looks pretty similar to the Boise data prediction of 49-15... and if I had the balls to follow it blindly I was pretty accurate on my claim earlier: See this as a 48-14 Boise win for what it's worth. Slight lean towards the Under 65 and taking LTech +35.5. I sometimes slightly adjust the predicted scores to reflect plausible team totals. 49 became 48 (though 49 might have been a better number for Boise's TD-first offense) and 15 became 14. |
VGPOP | 25 |
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Using the home/road stats would be a better measure if the sample size of games wasn't so small. It's one thing that I'm only using 5-6 total games to come up with my team average scored/allowed, but I think using only 2-3 past results for a home/road average is too small a sample.
If one team has a game where either their points allowed or scored are abnormally high or low this skews the average more with a smaller 2-3 sample than it does using the full 5-6 game sample. Road/home differentiation is important but I decided that for my numbers the larger sample size was more important. This is also why I wait until this late in the season to start using this system. Ideally I'd have hundreds of results to plug in and then I could use standard deviations, etc. to create a pretty wicked correlation matrix, but that's impossible given the length of the season. To each their own I guess... everyone has their own methods and I am always looking for new ideas/perspective to make mine more accurate. Best of luck to ya and go get that cash! |
VGPOP | 25 |
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I think what I meant was confused in that first paragraph.
I don't use points scored/allowed by (for example) Boise versus San Jose State in determining San Jose State's average scored/allowed. I also exclude Div AA games as you do. I'm assuming your numbers are different because you're including Boise totals for Boise opponents and LaTech totals for LaTech opponents. For example, here are the Boise past opponents' average points allowed, excluding their game vs Boise: VaTech: 17.7 Wyoming: 28.2 Oregon St.: 28.2 New Mex St.: 34.8 Toledo: 23.3 San Jose St: 39.8 average: 28.7 The discrepancy in our numbers are because 1) you're including the Boise game in each team average (in this example) and 2) I think you've got your opponents offense and defense numbers backwards. This can be confusing and I always have to double check that I'm doing it right too! We agree on a strategy here on predicting scores but it just needs a little tinkering. |
VGPOP | 25 |
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I use a similar method to get to my calculations except when calculating opponents offense/defense ppg I don't use the score from the game against the team I'm analyzing. For example, when calculating the ppg allowed by San Jose State for the purpose of comparing to what Boise scored against them, I don't use the game against Boise as a part of this average. If I did, these averages scored/allowed would be less statistically accurate. Here's what I have with that key difference:
La Tech offense: 24.0 ppg - opponents defense (25.7 ppg) = -1.7 difference defense: 30.0 ppg - opponents offense (27.5 ppg) = +2.5 difference Boise St offense: 47.5 ppg - opponents defense (28.7 ppg) = +18.8 difference defense: 12.3 ppg - opponents offense (21.8 ppg) = -9.4 ppg difference. I then take LaTech's offensive ppg and adjust it by adding the Boise St. defense ppg difference: 24.0 + -9.4 = 14.6 and LaTech's defensive ppg adjusted by Boise offensive ppg difference: 30.0 + 18.8 = 48.8 So according to LaTech's avg offense/defensive ppg and Boise's differences, I get an expected rounded score of 49-15 for a total of 64. Using Boise's offensive ppg adjusted by LaTech defensive ppg difference: 47.5 + 2.5 = 50 and Boise defensive ppg adjusted by LaTech offensive ppg difference: 12.3 + -1.7 = 10.6 So according to Boise's avg offense/defensive ppg and LaTech's differences, I get an expected rounded score of 50-11 for a total of 61. Both predicted scores and totals are comparable and hover around both the official spread/total. I find it's more accurate on totals as I also track what my Over/Under win %'s are for each team/conference using this strategy. For what it's worth, I stayed off the total on this one as the data isn't very swaying in this example and instead took Boise -22 1st half. Damn missed FG and a couple stalled drives cost me! |
VGPOP | 25 |
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LTech is averaging 24.0 points for per game but Boise is allowing 9.4 points LESS to their opponents than their opponents' average. That gives us a "guess" of 14.6 points tonight for LTech.
Not exact science, but not a bad basis for a good guess. See this as a 48-14 Boise win for what it's worth. Slight lean towards the Under 65 and taking LTech +35.5. |
VGPOP | 25 |
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Luongo confirmed during coach Vigneault's news conference today broadcast on Team 1040.
The plan is for him to play 2 of 3 remaining games, so look for Raycroft Thursday @ San Jose or Saturday vs Calgary. |
weeble5672 | 29 |
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Really? The weather argument? Congrats on it being warmer out east today... but I've never had to shovel rain in the winter. And if I want snow, I only have to drive 30 min to the local mountains or 90 min to Whistler.
As for the Prince George... I'll leave defending that to someone else Kinda ironic that our reconciliation is being derailed from the province that wanted to leave? |
xar86413 | 59 |
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