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I was pretty skeptical of this system when I first read this thread (because how would books not see this trend and adjust their lines/juice accordingly?), but I did some quick back testing for this month... I didn't focus on only home teams, although the vast majority of 15+ favs turn out to be home teams by nature -- very few potentially dominant teams travel to significantly lesser opponent's homes. I didn't have specific 1st half lines available to compare, so my testing is only estimated, but I came out with a 46-16 record before tonight, with the 3 previous December Saturdays accounting for 27-7 of that. Again, these are only my rough estimations and some variation would surely occur based on your book and the lines offered. Nevertheless, that is a ridiculous trend. Thanks to Stockton for bringing this to the forum!!
Stockton -- any input on how this trend generally plays out for the back half of the month and throughout conference season?
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12STOCKTON12 | 104 |
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I'm not sure there are many teams in the country I'd be confident enough to say the hawks can "hang with", but 14.5 points is a lot for a home finale. This is sure to develop into a rivalry over time, but I'm not sure this game is a close one. Iowa is awful offensively and Nebraska is diverse enough on offense to score 30+ against one of the weakest Iowa defenses in recent memory. A few other notes worth considering...
- Nebraska's D-Line coach used to coach the same position under Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz. - Iowa leads the B1G in turnover margin. It's hard to think how ugly this team would look if they didn't... - Nebraska locks up their spot in the B1G title game with a win (A loss would make them wait and hope Ohio State beats Michigan the following day). I imagine this team comes out very focused and aggressive. - Home field won't mean much in this game. Tickets are available for fairly cheap and it's only about a 4 hour drive from Omaha (5 from Lincoln). There will be enough red in the stands to keep it from being too overwhelming. I'm leaning towards Nebraska, but I'd be considerably more comfortable doing so if the number dropped to 14 or lower. We'll see what he short week brings. Good luck!
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Covers | 30 |
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I figure I'll chime in with the 2 cents I have left after getting my ass handed to me last week...
TILTOLOGIC made some good points. UCLA never comes close to selling out the Rose Bowl. Couple this with the thousands of NU fans making this their "away" trip of the year, I wouldn't expect much of an intimidating home-field atmosphere for UCLA. Taylor Martinez has had some great road games (Washington - 2010, Oklahoma State 2010) and some awful road games (Wisconsin - 2011) the last few years. Being a 3rd year starter and returning to his home to play this game, I don't think there will be any nerves to worry about. I also don't think you can expect a similar passing game to the one he had last week, but anyone who has followed his career could definitely see noticeable improvements in his balance, poise and decision making. These improvements should serve him well all season. A few other notes that have been mentioned by other posters: NU's skill positions are deep and talented. Not having Burkhead (RB) is a blow, but it shouldn't cost them much in terms of production. Their D is good but still looking for some leadership. They play a sound system and shouldn't give up the big plays like Rice did. I think UCLA is an improved team, but given the experience Nebraska has, I don't think UCLA with a new coaching staff and freshman QB are going to have what it takes to pull the upset in a less than intimidating environment. I was able to get a large bet placed early in the week when Nebraska was -4.5 and am happy to see the line moving in my favor. With all that said, fade me and you'll probably pay the bills. BOL to all.
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fumble_rooskie | 46 |
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Quote Originally Posted by footballfanstan: Anyone want to talk anymore shit? Just another day of me making HUGE units. When will you kids learn to not fall into the covers bloodbath? |
footballfanstan | 92 |
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Nugg, sent you a friend request with PM to follow. Appreciate your work! Looking forward to more winning!
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nuggetmonster | 225 |
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Wow... And that's why they call it gambling. Tough game to watch, especially Creighton missing a 1 and 1 down the stretch. Welp, on to the next one.
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TRAIN69 | 37 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Fishscale: Doug McDermott has a stupid name and is coming off 36 and 21. 14 is the next logical number in that scenario. Hard to argue with that breakdown! GL to all who play! |
TRAIN69 | 37 |
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(That's 84 PPG in regulation, btw)
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TRAIN69 | 37 |
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My first post on covers, so take it as you will...
I'm from Omaha and have been following Creighton closely all year. Their defense is bad, as has been mentioned. But they just outmatch this Indiana St. team. And you can take the angle of them having the #2 seed for the Valley tourney locked up, but I don't think this team is satisfied with that. They're going to want momentum heading down to STL. Also, calling them a one man team is ridiculous and I think they show that tomorrow. In terms of this matchup, I look at a few things. For one, Creighton out-rebounded Indiana State by 10 the last time they met, despite the CU starters playing limited minutes. That's likely to be repeated as Indiana State is a guard heavy team and can't match up to the size of Creighton down low. Secondly, Creighton went through a shooting slump during their 3 game losing streak, shooting 41% from the field (well under their season average of 51%, including an abysmal 23% from 3 during that stretch). They've broken out of that slump of late, averaging 84 PPG their last 3. Their guard play has picked up as well, as Senior PG Antoine Young is averaging 17 ppg and 5+ assists per game over the last 3 games. He's also seasoned enough to hit the big shot when necessary (see the Long Beach State game). Also, the first matchup between these two teams saw 8 players score 6 points or more as a result of the blowout. This was a result of the Creighton starters being pulled for a good part of the game and CU STILL maintaining control of the game from start to finish. If this game is anywhere closer than the first, you'll see McDermott, Young, Echenique, etc. getting more playing time and over-matching the Sycamores even more than the first meeting. Lastly, if you compare this game to the last Evansville game for Creighton, Indiana State has NO ONE that can explode the way Colt Ryan did Tuesday night. Between him and Denver Holmes curling off of picks, they accounted for 68 of Evansville's 92 points. You won't see that same sort of exploitation out of the Sycamores because they just don't have the quickness or shooting ability of those guards (or the guards from Wichita State, another team that toasted Creighton recently, for that matter). I don't see this game being the blowout we saw in the first meeting, but for my money, I don't see many better options than a 2 or 2.5 pt line on this game tomorrow in favor of Creighton. On the surface it looks very square, but digging deeper into the matchup, I just don't see Indiana State keeping this one too close down the stretch. I see Creighton winning this game by 8-12 at least. Sorry for the novel, I just wanted to add some insight for anyone prospective players. Good luck whichever way you go and thanks to those of you who post your write-ups on the site. It's always good to get some different perspectives.
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TRAIN69 | 37 |
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