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There is no question that Rodgers has looked good...but if you turn off the NFL Network and quit listening to "Prime-Time" you may see a trend.
The Packers only score 9 points vs the Jets, and 17 - 10 against the Bears. They only scored 17 vs the Falcons and only 21 against the Eagles. This tells me they are very beatable. The Bears are up and down on offense but the defense has been steady all season. The Packers do a great job a padding Rodgers stats in games that are already won. Like last week, not many teams throw the ball 70% of the time with a 28 point lead. I think Vegas is playing with the weak on Sunday. If you listen to the NFL network and get caught up in the hype you will get burned this week. I love the Bears +3.5. I also love the OVER!! Again the hype of two low scoring games. The Bears will have an offensive game plan today that will be different than the week 17 match-up. Green Bay will do what they do - THROW. Chicago 27 -Green Bay 20 Good Jay will show up!! BOL -
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cyearian | 2 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Ice4Blood: i'm shocked by the amount of Bears support on this forum! it just proves that if you dangle the right number out there, the fish will bite! To me this looks like a case of people going with what looks like the "hottest team" and the "hottest QB". I think the makers know this..hence the line. Forget about the Falcon game. After the pick at the end of the half the game was over. The Falcons new the only way to win that game was to stop the run. The Packers kept throwing. Rodgers looked great, but, you have to look at the situation. What other team throws 70% of the time with a 28 point lead. They padded his stats...if they do that this week they lose by double digits. Chi won the last 4 ATS and 5 of 7 SU GB 3-1 last 4 ATS (lost ATS to Chi) 5-3 SU I like Chicago's chances - more interesting is the o/u. Take the over!!
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Boom_Boom | 156 |
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Bears to the bank...lots of passing. Packers - without Clifton, and a banged up secondary. Bears - finally healthy on defense. Without Williams but he sucks anyway. Martz will be the difference. Like him or hate him he knows how to scheme. |
rush | 54 |
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don't forget, with Clifton out the Fudge Packers O-line isn't the same. Chicago's D-line will have a field day. Martz has proven before that he can scheme to beat anyone. Quick passes on the beat up Packer secondary will prove to be the ticket to a huge win for the Bears.
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MustRisk2Win | 5 |
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like it...with Clifton out Peppers and that D-line will have a field day. The Bears will be able to get rid of the ball quick on the banged up secondary and clay Mathews will be a non-factor. Rodger's will leave in the second quarter with a seperated shoulder!! I am with you all the way here!! |
CASTORTROY | 11 |
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Quote Originally Posted by special__k:
Interesting ATS stat for those who like trends: Bears are 1-11 ATS in games with a total of 45 or higher. K I love the insight here. I would be cautious though with this trend. Things are different in Chicago than they have been. Martz is much more unpredictable than Turner. Also, neither team can run effectively so I anticipate lots of passing which ussually means lots of points. That being said 46 is still a very high number. BOL |
special__k | 46 |
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gl bibendi!!
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bibendi23 | 119 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Jim_Tressel:
I'm sorry you don't want to hear the truth. Iowa simply can't beat Ohio State in a big game.
Don't forget Stanzi didn't play in that game either. Iowa's true freshman looked like a 5 year starter against that defense last year. In IC this year...Iowa by double digits. Pryor is a flake. |
Jim_Tressel | 37 |
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not a chance...the packers are not a good football team. If they don't score on a 50yrd+ TD pass they don't score. They have no running game and a trigger happy qb that can't check down and sustain a drive. Peterson runns wild on a piss poor run defense, Favre and Rice connect for about 170 yrds. Won't even be close!! Minnesota by 2 scores - Rodgers gets another cheap TD at the end of the game to pad his stats since he can't win in the league. |
choiOi | 91 |
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This is my first posted play of the season!! Tulsa -7.5 - Tulsa's offense will be way to much in this game. I have a slight lean on the over as well. I have seen it at 59 and I think the score will land right around that number. Tulsa - 37 utep - 24 |
cyearian | 7 |
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Quote Originally Posted by igotthegoods:
i think you guys are doing it wrong, cuz i got tulsa 36 utep 19 do this "sagarin power rankings/sagarin schedule" this is probably more accurate, because CFB has a wider variety of competition. Think about it, UTEP lost to Memphis and Buffalo and still managed to upset Houston. Yet the schedule average (according to sagarin) is only 6 points for UTEP. So there is a big flaw with the SOS multiplier when it comes to CFB. the way you guys are determining the SOS multiplier is more useful for the NFL, because there is a much smaller and more similar teams. also, i agree on HFA, but its not THAT important unless its a division game. the better teams come to win out of division more times than not. also there is much faster ways to do this if you only want the projected score. but this formula is cool because it lets you determine who has could have a better run game (which is very important in 1 - 3 pt spreads) and who will have a defensive impact. its much more specific. It probably has to do with some other numbers. I was using the Sagarin Schedule ranks. Tulsa 62.3 and UTEP - 68.77 Let me know what you mean by dividing the number. Thanks, |
roughshod31 | 1286 |
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Quote Originally Posted by jkat15:
Northern Iowa Arkansas State beaten by a combined 4 points Cincy just won't let that happen. Sorry Hawkeyes you beat Penn State on a BS punt block in a driving rain....you beat wisky when their QB lost all confidence....thats all the impressive wins you have and they really arent that great. And to the retard that tried to talk about the Big 11 being hands down better than the big east..........get real you cant be serious UNI and Arkansas St - would both beat Rutgers, Miami (oh), and SE Missouri St. Wisconsin did beat Fresno, Penn St would beat S Fla by 3 scores - get a clue!! Per the sargarin rankings this is how it stacks up Iowa: UNI -73, Iowa State-70, Arizona - 14, Penn St - 21, Arkansas St - 105 , Michigan-34, Wisconsin 32, Mich St 42 Cincy: Rutgers - 78, SE Missouri St - 226 (of 246 div 1 teams), Oregon St - 30, Fresno St - 22 (who Wisconsin beat), Miami (oh) - 151, S. Florida - 25, Louisville 94 GET A CLUE!!
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jkat15 | 103 |
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Quote Originally Posted by jkat15:
question just posed on college football live who would win this game on a neutral field. kelly just came out in the media and said pike will play against louisville next week so lets assume that injury is a non-factor....who would win? IMO this isnt a question Cincinnati would run past Iowa on a neutral field.....Iowa could not cover Gilyard with a double team or any coverage they just don't face the speed that the Cats have in that conference with its own network. Neutral field decent weather Bearcats 42 Iowa 21 This is laughable - if Cincy can't score 42 on oregon St, Fresno St (who wisconsin beat), or 0-7 Miami (oh) - good luck getting 10 on Iowa. Who does Cincy play this year other than WV. The S. Florida game was a lot closer than the score was. Hell Cincy gave up 168 yards rushing. Not to mention 290 to Fresno St. I don't think Iowa gets out of this buzz saw game with a win - but if they do and run the table there is no WAY Cincy stays above them. If Cincy makes the BCS it could be one of the biggest blowouts in BCS history. OVER RATED!! |
jkat15 | 103 |
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That being said I agree we are underrated - I could be wrong just a little worried about the game.
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PIMPIN | 20 |
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I am a huge Iowa fan and I plan on making the trek to Lansing - that being said this game scares me a lot. I have a feeling this may be where it all ends for us. We don't play very good at MSU. Unlike Penn St and Madison, we don't have good luck in Lansing. Historically we always lay an egg there. If I had to make a play on the game I would take the over. |
PIMPIN | 20 |
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Quote Originally Posted by bibendi23:
Miami(Fl.) -6 ROC: Navy -3 North Carolina -2.5 Army +9.5 Bowling Green +7 Ole Miss -4.5 Iowa -1 Stanford -6.5 Bib, I like the plays - 1 suggestion I will make is be careful with Iowa - I am a huge Iowa fan and may even make the trek to Lansing. We never play very good at MSU and this could be the week the run ends. I forsure wouldn't bet against Iowa but it may be a good game to stay away from. I would lean over. |
bibendi23 | 48 |
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Quote Originally Posted by ncsutodd1193:
Love this thread but not too confident in my work, I put everything in excel to do the calculations. I am wanting to make sure I am pulling the correct numbers from statfox.. if someone could take the time to review this that would be great...thanks.. tulsa-utep
tulsa sagarin - 62.3 = .95 sos multp.
utep 68.77 = 1.05 sos multip.
tulsa(off) yd-r 154.7 (-8.5) yd-p 239.7 (8.8) yppt 12.8 (1)
opp. allow 163.2 230.9 11.8
utep(def) yd-r 215.7(68.3) yd-p 277.3 (5.4) yppt 14 (.2)
opp. allow 147.4 271.9 14.2
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utep(off) yd-r 122.7(-26.2) yd-p 209.7 (-.1) yppt 13.6(-1.4)
opp. allow 148.9 209.8 15
tulsa(def) yd-r 111.3(-21.8) yd-p 208.4(-7.1) yppt 17.1(.1)
opp allow 133.1 201.3 17.2
after calculations I come up with...
tulsa: rush 204.4 pass 252.5 yppt 13.26 points 34.35
utep: rush 97.6 pass 211.9 yppt16.1 points 19.23
..Not exactly what Roughshod got but pretty close...what is the difference? Is it due to rounding or that you are putting new factors in?? I basically want to make sure I am using the right numbers for the calculations before I attempt anything else...i think my calculations should be right on since they are being done in excel..any help would be appreciated...I am also going to attempt to incorporate TO's and special team yards once I get this hammered out..thanks yall
Your numbers look right to me. I came up with Tulsa: 30.78 UTEP: 22.08 To me it looks too close to call but it may not be a bad idea to take the home dog. These are my calculations, but roughshod lost me with some of the changes. Roughshod - I have a few concerns when it comes to college. 1) home field is way too important in college football. 2) To many junk games. 1-AA teams or just bad teams like Washington St. 3) Rankings are based too much off of perception and because of the number of teams in the country it can be way off. In the NFL they are more accurate since there is only 32 teams. 4) I think just taking into consideration their conference apponents would be a good way to go. That way the same level of competition is taken into consideration. Notre Dame would be a team that comes to mind that this may not work for - but my suggestion would be to only fade them. (that system has worked okay for me over the past 4 seasons). Love the thread and great job with this...please keep updating us on this. |
roughshod31 | 1286 |
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Quote Originally Posted by VGPOP:
These are the results for college football for this weekend. Use it whatever you want. Don't go crazy with it. Remember, it's just a system. You still need to handicap games, you lazy bastards! CINCINNATI - Season Statistics 18 S FLORIDA - Season Statistics 15 PITTSBURGH - Season Statistics 30 RUTGERS - Season Statistics 16 OKLAHOMA - Season Statistics 22 TEXAS - Season Statistics 13 NC STATE - Season Statistics 24 BOSTON COLLEGE - Season Statistics 25 OHIO ST - Season Statistics 32 PURDUE - Season Statistics 14 BOWLING GREEN - Season Statistics 34 BALL ST - Season Statistics 22 NORTHWESTERN - Season Statistics 18 MICHIGAN ST - Season Statistics 37 IOWA - Season Statistics 29 WISCONSIN - Season Statistics 20 VIRGINIA - Season Statistics 39 MARYLAND - Season Statistics 20 WAKE FOREST - Season Statistics 19 CLEMSON - Season Statistics 22 BAYLOR - Season Statistics 28 IOWA ST - Season Statistics 25 UAB - Season Statistics 13 OLE MISS - Season Statistics 35 GEORGIA - Season Statistics 25 VANDERBILT - Season Statistics 15 KENTUCKY - Season Statistics 31 AUBURN - Season Statistics 37 ARMY - Season Statistics 13 TEMPLE - Season Statistics 24 WYOMING - Season Statistics 12 AIR FORCE - Season Statistics 28 MIAMI OHIO - Season Statistics 12 OHIO U - Season Statistics 33 NEVADA - Season Statistics 34 UTAH ST - Season Statistics 27 MINNESOTA - Season Statistics 13 PENN ST - Season Statistics 23 MARSHALL - Season Statistics 20 W VIRGINIA - Season Statistics 28 S CAROLINA - Season Statistics 12 ALABAMA - Season Statistics 31 USC - Season Statistics 26 NOTRE DAME - Season Statistics 12 CALIFORNIA - Season Statistics 19 UCLA - Season Statistics 20 HOUSTON - Season Statistics 44 TULANE - Season Statistics 20 TEXAS TECH - Season Statistics 11 NEBRASKA - Season Statistics 34 TEXAS A&M - Season Statistics 35 KANSAS ST - Season Statistics 23 VIRGINIA TECH - Season Statistics 45 GEORGIA TECH - Season Statistics 21 So based of of the score that you entered here I went through the lines for tomorrow and I only picked out the games that were good by a 10pnt margin...larger than first mentioned on sides. Here is what I came up with. Also, notice how accurate your scores are with the ACTUAL totals for each game - only a few are off by more than 5points. Oklahoma +3.5 Bowling Green -3 Iowa +2.5 - (love this one by the way) Virginia -3.5 and over Kentucky / Auburn Over USC / Notre Dame - under (love this too - love USC but not based on the system) Marshall +20.5 Nebraska -10.5 and under Va Tech -4 and under Missouri +6.5 Colorado St +22 (not a real fan of this one) New Mexico St +20.5 N. Illinois -7 Arkansas / Florida under Navy -7.5 Washington +6.5 I will look them all over after Saturday but here is a good start...again before jumping on these I would do some capping on your own!! I hope we get some good results from these!!
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roughshod31 | 1286 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Pegasus21:
okay after trying a couple of different formulas, one based on Average stats, one on HFA, one on ranking instead of SOS and adding HFA the plays that i got are as follows: Det/GB over Cincy Bal/Min over Bal NO Car SD/Den Under Im actually thinking it is not a bad looking card. Probably wont play them blindly but interesting as far as the results go. I kind of like the card as well!! |
roughshod31 | 1286 |
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Quote Originally Posted by skan:
thanks cyearian, that sounds like a good idea. I said earlier in the post that I like the under alot but the TO scared me a little. I still ended up puling the trigger and lost $300 for the night. Tomorrow is another day and hopefully we can get it back. I really liked the under in this game too...unfortunately this is the first under I have taken during the weeknights in 3 weeks and of course tonight was the first over!! I really think this system will be money with the NFL - there is just some tinkering that needs to be done with college - especially the weeknight games. I think this could work in some college games but I think we need to be careful with it. I really enjoy playing with the numbers though!! We wll get it figured out!! |
roughshod31 | 1286 |
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