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808tundra
Another fairly brutal day. I've got to try to ignore small sample sizes and keep with the plan: Brewers (+142) risking 0.83 to win 1.18
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baarrn | 8 |
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powerade
Dodgers (+102) risking 0.99 to win 1.01 Astros (+154) risking 0.79 to win 1.22 White Sox (-149) risking 1.20 to win 0.81
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baarrn | 8 |
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retburj
weebs - back at you. Mariners (+139) risking 0.84 to win 1.17 White Sox (-101) risking 1.01 to win 1.00
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baarrn | 8 |
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MLB (81-67) +24.76 units
Yesterday (0-0) +1.66 units Sides (77-61) +26.97 units Totals (4-6) -2.21 units __________________________________________________________________________ *Leans are in italics and underlined. Plays are listed in Orange and I try to "flat bet" as defined by Vanzack a couple of years ago. My capping style this time of year is based purely on the main projection systems by individual player. As the year goes on, I'll make some tweaks based on current form for certain players and hopefully add some other factors as time permits. I've done this long enough to recognize that there are no sure things and this is a grind. Attempt to get a small edge in each game and as your sample size increases (over the season) hopefully you'll see a positive return. ________________________________________________________________________ Took yesterday off as I had quite a bit going on and really didn't feel like thinking about baseball after a brutal Friday. Even though I fairly firm understanding of probabilities and sample sizes, those 0 for days are still tough to swallow. Red Sox (-131) @ Tigers risking 1.14 to win 0.87 Not loving Lackey's numbers at this point (4.66 xFIP) but he has been missing more bats lately (first 4 starts - 11/9 K/BB, L3 starts - 16/8 K/BB). Dbacks (+109) @ Braves risking 0.96 to win 1.05 Using projections I get something pretty close to this line. But I'm making this play based on current form for both pitchers. Although Hudson's ERA is 2.64, his xFIP (4.58) suggests that he's been fairly "lucky". Haren ERA (4.23) and xFIP (2.87) hint at the opposite. I'll be back as lineups roll in and I have time to look at the rest of the card. BOL all.
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baarrn | 8 |
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Thanks all.
2169 - I saw some conflicting stories as well this morning but turns out it is Baker. Thanks for the heads-up though. Adding: Astros (+137) risking 0.85 to win 1.16 |
baarrn | 8 |
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MLB (81-63) +28.43 units
Yesterday (2-1) +1.66 units Sides (77-57) +30.64 units Totals (4-6) -2.21 units __________________________________________________________________________ *Leans are in italics and underlined. Plays are listed in Orange and I try to "flat bet" as defined by Vanzack a couple of years ago. My capping style this time of year is based purely on the main projection systems by individual player. As the year goes on, I'll make some tweaks based on current form for certain players and hopefully add some other factors as time permits. I've done this long enough to recognize that there are no sure things and this is a grind. Attempt to get a small edge in each game and as your sample size increases (over the season) hopefully you'll see a positive return. ________________________________________________________________________ Small card yesterday but managed to squeak out a bit over a unit and a half. Here's what I've got going on for Friday at this point: Phillies @ Brewers (-124) risking 1.11 to win 0.90 Both teams hit LH's well although the Phillies trail the Brewers slightly in terms of OPS (both last year and in '10). I don't really see much difference in the value of the pitchers. Give me the home team at full strength (Braun hopefully is back) vs. the still Rollins-less Phillies. Indians (+110) @ Orioles risking 0.95 to win 1.06 Although Masterson's ERA is unimpressive (5.23) his peripherals are very intriguing (10.74 K/9, 4.13 BB/9, 55% GB rate). Combine those stats and his xFIP for this year is 3.01. Admittedly his K rate is likely to regress, but I still think he's quite a bit more of an asset than Guthrie. Twins (+165) @ Yankees risking 0.76 to win 1.25 I've got the Yankees offense rated as the best in baseball but the Twins are at least in shouting distance. I've got Baker and Burnett as fairly interchangeable. I'll take the juice. Glad to see Friday's here. BOL this weekend. |
baarrn | 8 |
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MLB (79-62) +26.77 units
Yesterday (5-0) +5.20 units Sides (75-56) +28.98 units Totals (4-6) -2.21 units __________________________________________________________________________ *Leans are in italics and underlined. Plays are listed in Orange and I try to "flat bet" as defined by Vanzack a couple of years ago. My capping style this time of year is based purely on the main projection systems by individual player. As the year goes on, I'll make some tweaks based on current form for certain players and hopefully add some other factors as time permits. I've done this long enough to recognize that there are no sure things and this is a grind. Attempt to get a small edge in each game and as your sample size increases (over the season) hopefully you'll see a positive return. ________________________________________________________________________ Had a very nice day yesterday. Wasn't sure how many plays I would find with only 8 games on the schedule. Here's what I have: Yankees @ Tigers (+134) risking 0.86 to win 1.15 I've actually got this line just about the same as what's out there. But there are a couple of things that aren't accounted for in my line. A lesser point is Swisher is questionable after being pulled in the 8th yesterday. The main reason for my play is I have Sabathia plugged in as having a 3.40 FIP for this season. After looking at his results from '09 (3.82 xFIP) and thus far in '10 (4.00 xFIP) I feel like I need to down grade him to 3.75 or 3.8. His strikeout rate just isn't high enough to justify a 3.40 value. Oakland (+176) risking 0.73 to win 1.28 Sheets has a 6.38 and his xFIP (5.19) doesn't suggest that he's just getting unlucky. At the same time, Sheets had an entire year off and may deserve a bit of a pass for having to shake some rust off. This play is purely based on what Sheets is capable of and the fact that his last start out vs. a dangerous Rays offense showed signs of possibly getting back on track (8K, 3BB). Padres (+161) @ Giants risking 0.77 to win 1.24 Latos has a better xFIP than Sanchez does so far this year. I have the Giants favored but now by this much. That's all I have so far. BOL today all. |
baarrn | 7 |
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Thanks guys. Nice to come home and see a couple of winners.
Adding: Rockies (+103) risking 0.99 to win 1.02 Dodgers (-121) risking 1.10 to win 0.91 |
baarrn | 9 |
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MLB (74-62) +21.57 units
Yesterday (1-1) -0.19 units Sides (70-56) +23.78 units Totals (4-6) -2.21 units __________________________________________________________________________ *Leans are in italics and underlined. Plays are listed in Orange and I try to "flat bet" as defined by Vanzack a couple of years ago. My capping style this time of year is based purely on the main projection systems by individual player. As the year goes on, I'll make some tweaks based on current form for certain players and hopefully add some other factors as time permits. I've done this long enough to recognize that there are no sure things and this is a grind. Attempt to get a small edge in each game and as your sample size increases (over the season) hopefully you'll see a positive return. ________________________________________________________________________ Split a favorite and a dog yesterday, unfortunately it cost me more to own the "Dan Haren" ticket than I was rewarded for owning "Jake Westbrook" vs. the Royals. White Sox @ Twins (-133) risking 1.15 to win 0.86 With Mauer down last week I looked at how different this line would be with him compared to without him. Turns out to be approximately .20 based on his projected value relative to average. Indians (+100) @ Royals risking 1.00 to win 1.00 Not too excited about backing a guy with a higher BB rate (4.08) than K rate (3.86). I've got the Indians ranked higher offensively though and battling Davies is not worse than a push IMO. Braves (+150) @ Brewers risking 0.80 to win 1.20 Even with Lowe's high BB rate (4.50) his close to 60% groundball percentage has his xFIP at a respectable 4.20. That being said, he hasn't made it through a complete 6th inning since the beginning of the year. There's enough white meat on this line that I'll take a stab at the likely Braun-less Brewers. Astros (+167) @ Cards risking 0.75 to win 1.25 Cards were last in the majors last year vs. LH's (.674 OPS). Wandy's shown that he's capable in the past but his decrease in K rate his first few starts concerned me but he seems to be missing more bats lately.
I'll check back in after work. BOL today. |
baarrn | 9 |
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MLB (73-61) +21.76 units
Yesterday (2-0) +2.11 units Sides (69-55) +23.97 units Totals (4-6) -2.21 units __________________________________________________________________________ *Leans are in italics and underlined. Plays are listed in Orange and I try to "flat bet" as defined by Vanzack a couple of years ago. My capping style this time of year is based purely on the main projection systems by individual player. As the year goes on, I'll make some tweaks based on current form for certain players and hopefully add some other factors as time permits. I've done this long enough to recognize that there are no sure things and this is a grind. Attempt to get a small edge in each game and as your sample size increases (over the season) hopefully you'll see a positive return. ________________________________________________________________________ I'm only around for a few minutes but here's my quick card for tonight: Dbacks (-162) risking 1.24 to win 0.77 Indians (+111) risking 0.95 to win 1.05 Good luck tonight. |
baarrn | 2 |
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Thanks guys but looks like my play was cancelled due to Willis getting sick.
Dodgers (-107) risking 1.03 to win 0.97 Angels (+131) risking 0.87 to win 1.14
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baarrn | 11 |
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MLB (71-61) +19.65 units
Yesterday (3-4) -0.18 units Sides (67-55) +21.86 units Totals (4-6) -2.21 units __________________________________________________________________________ *Leans are in italics and underlined. Plays are listed in Orange and I try to "flat bet" as defined by Vanzack a couple of years ago. My capping style this time of year is based purely on the main projection systems by individual player. As the year goes on, I'll make some tweaks based on current form for certain players and hopefully add some other factors as time permits. I've done this long enough to recognize that there are no sure things and this is a grind. Attempt to get a small edge in each game and as your sample size increases (over the season) hopefully you'll see a positive return. ________________________________________________________________________ Started out terrible yesterday as I lost my first 4 but came back in the afternoon to make it respectable. I just can't seem to get any momentum lately. At the same time, its probably a good thing that treading water feels like you're losing. Only thing I've got for the 4pm or 5pm start times is: Yankees (-121) risking 1.10 to win 0.91 I've got a staff meeting after school so I probably won't check in until close to the start of the last games. BOL this week all. |
baarrn | 11 |
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I've been a bit tougher for me the last few weeks. Glad to see those two hit this afternoon.
Red Sox (-106) risking 1.03 to win 0.97 |
baarrn | 8 |
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Thanks guys.
Dodgers (+113) risking 0.94 to win 1.06 Mariners (+115) risking 0.93 to win 1.07
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baarrn | 8 |
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Mets (+176) risking 0.78 to win 1.23
Wish this line was lower so I could avoid backing Oliver Perez against Lincecum. Might mean I'll be drinking a bit earlier today.
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baarrn | 8 |
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MLB (68-57) +19.83 units
Yesterday (2-4) -1.61 units Sides (64-51) +22.04 units Totals (4-6) -2.21 units __________________________________________________________________________ *Leans are in italics and underlined. Plays are listed in Orange and I try to "flat bet" as defined by Vanzack a couple of years ago. My capping style this time of year is based purely on the main projection systems by individual player. As the year goes on, I'll make some tweaks based on current form for certain players and hopefully add some other factors as time permits. I've done this long enough to recognize that there are no sure things and this is a grind. Attempt to get a small edge in each game and as your sample size increases (over the season) hopefully you'll see a positive return. ________________________________________________________________________ Been an up and down week --- hopefully it ends on a positive note. Here's my card for the early games: Marlins (+100) risking 1.00 to win 1.00 Braves (+192) risking 0.65 to win 1.35 Orioles (+135) risking 0.85 to win 1.15 I'll be back in awhile. Hope your Sunday goes well. |
baarrn | 8 |
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Yankees @ Red Sox (+121) risking 0.91 to win 1.10
Both teams are a bit banged up but I actually have the Red Sox with the edge offensively. At to that the fact that the Red Sox were 2nd in baseball last year vs. LH's (.812) and are 3rd this year (.841) and its enough for me to money on the solid but less valuable pitcher. Rays (-150) @ Athletics risking 1.20 to win 0.80 Based on projections I've got the A's as the side with value here. But it sure seems to me we've got enough evidence to suggest that Sheets isn't right. His K rate and BB rate are both at 4.75. Both more than 2 per 9 away from his career averages. Normally would just stay away but the Rays have been so good that I'm trying to sizable road fave. Braves (+143) @ Phillies risking 0.83 to win 1.18 Not sure how long Medlen will go as they stretch him out but while he's in there I'd actually rather have him than Blanton. Although its only been relief (usually a fairly sizable downgrade in terms of FIP when shifting to starter) his 8.15 K/9 and 1.53 BB/9 are stellar. I'll take a look at the late games this afternoon. Looks like its turning out to be a fairly sizable card.
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baarrn | 4 |
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retburj - Same to you.
Orioles (+232) risking 0.61 to win 1.41 |
baarrn | 4 |
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MLB (66-53) +21.44 units
Yesterday (2-1) +0.67 units Sides (62-47) +23.65 units Totals (4-6) -2.21 units __________________________________________________________________________ *Leans are in italics and underlined. Plays are listed in Orange and I try to "flat bet" as defined by Vanzack a couple of years ago. My capping style this time of year is based purely on the main projection systems by individual player. As the year goes on, I'll make some tweaks based on current form for certain players and hopefully add some other factors as time permits. I've done this long enough to recognize that there are no sure things and this is a grind. Attempt to get a small edge in each game and as your sample size increases (over the season) hopefully you'll see a positive return. ________________________________________________________________________ Had 3 favorites on my card yesterday which resulted in a small profit. Hopefully today's card goes even better. Here's what I've got for the first four games: Tigers @ Indians (+141) risking 0.83 to win 1.17 Nothing against Verlander as I've got him valued quite high. Even with Masterson's control issues, he strikeout rate (10.46) and mid 50's GB % mitigates Verlander's value a bit. The projections from the beginning of the year had the Indians offense ranked fairly high --- it sure seems like those should be scaled back a bit based on their start. Still trying the Tribe. Orioles @ Twins I've upgraded Liriano a bit to a 3.5 FIP but without Mauer, the Twins offense doesn't support a line this high IMO. Still debating whether I'll play this one - I'll wait to see lineups. Marlins (-168) @ Nationals risking 1.26 to win 0.75 I normally don't find too much value in heavy favorites but I've got the Marlins with a high magnitude edge in pitching/defense/offense. The line is almost high enough to keep me away but not quite. Giants @ Mets Same story as the Marlins game except that this line is keeping me away. Maybe if lineups look better than expected for the Mets I'll jump on it. I'll be back in awhile. Hope your Saturday is enjoyable and profitable. |
baarrn | 4 |
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MLB (64-52) +20.77 units
Yesterday (0-4) -3.49 units Sides (60-46) +22.98 units Totals (4-6) -2.21 units __________________________________________________________________________ *Leans are in italics and underlined. Plays are listed in Orange and I try to "flat bet" as defined by Vanzack a couple of years ago. My capping style this time of year is based purely on the main projection systems by individual player. As the year goes on, I'll make some tweaks based on current form for certain players and hopefully add some other factors as time permits. I've done this long enough to recognize that there are no sure things and this is a grind. Attempt to get a small edge in each game and as your sample size increases (over the season) hopefully you'll see a positive return. ________________________________________________________________________ Not a very fun day yesterday from a capping perspective but it happens. Just got back from work and checked into the late games. Here's what I'm playing: Brewers (-124) risking 1.11 to win 0.90 Rays (-127) risking 1.12 to win 0.88 Mariners (-125) risking 1.11 to win 0.89 Have a great Friday night. Time to kick back some of these.
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baarrn | 4 |
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