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Not sold on the DET ML just yet. May see them steal one in Game 5, but I do like the value in Q1, 1H, and First team to 20 pts. A lot of interesting options for Game 2.
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Gomtuu | 37 |
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Adding:
SAS/LAL 1H o99.5
Missed the opening number on this, but I think it will come in at the 107 range in 1H so I still see value. A 50 pt Q1, and a 60 pt Q2 (expecting a big Q2 from LAL in the low 30s). I guess if there are no 1H fireworks, then I'll go bust on my full game over as well. |
TightWad | 11 |
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Football, answered all my questions. Thanks. 1H can be more consistent from a numbers standpoint, with 2H being more situational based on the performance in 1H, so I see where you're coming from.
I have taken my fair share of beatings as well with last second shots. I think I will join you on the 1H over. Thanks for the insight.
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Football365 | 30 |
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On it as well Tico. GL.
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tico04 | 10 |
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Chili, on the Over as well. I see a fast paced game with tons of free throws. GL to us.
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chilitokid | 25 |
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Football, broken down by half, how are your 1H totals doing vs. your 2H totals. And overall, how are your half totals working out in the playoffs alone?
Are you seeing things in the playoffs half totals that you were/weren't expecting, and have you had to make adjustments?
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Football365 | 30 |
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Nice record on Half Totals. I agree with the 1H assessment going over. But I also have the full game going over. There is the danger of an LAL blowout which could certainly hurt over backers for the full game.
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Football365 | 30 |
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GL on both. I usually bite on 1Q plays, but I can see a 49 pt 1Q (24-25). Too close for my comfort.
GL.
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GreenMachine22 | 7 |
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Again, solid info. But, do all of the conference finals games go under because they are conference finals games? Ultimately, it comes down to stronger, tighter defense causing lower % and fewer shots (your angle), or 2 teams searching for higher percentage shots because of the stronger defense, or quicker transition offense to keep the defense off balance, getting to the F/T line more often, and hitting jumpers (my angle). And as we have seen, both teams are pretty solid with jump shots, and when they aren't, they are going to the foul line.
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TightWad | 11 |
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Tony2Toes, A valid point. I used the phrase loosely. I can understand the need for defense, but is LAL better off banking on their speed and offensive power or relying more heavily on defense? It could very well be a bruiser of a game, but both teams shoot very well from the charity stripe, and have flexibility to open the floor. Like I said, good point about it being the finals. I would like to say that LAL as the home team will dictate tempo, and they will choose to turn it up. One thing for you to consider. The books set it at 197. Was that a genuine mistake that their room full of analysts made? A mistake on a game that they had at least a week to prepare for and analyze? Or did they set it there, and run it down quickly to 195 to get people to chase an under that won't happen?
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TightWad | 11 |
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I like the over also, but +7.5 seems tough for me. Could be a 9-10 point win for LAL, so i am steering clear. I have a feeling it's going to come down to how long LAL can keep their starting PG on the floor. If they have to resort to Farmar too early, then you could see SAS make a strong play for the victory. Just too tight for me to call it either way.
GL.
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sportsladyd | 13 |
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Thxs SportsLadyd. Good to see you are still around posting. I like your avatar.
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TightWad | 11 |
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Playoffs Record: 1-0
SAS/LAL o195.5
Haven't posted much, but getting back into it. I looked closely at this one to see how LAL could potentially react after a long layoff, while SAS needs to play quickly after a hotly contested battle in the previous round. A good parallel to this game in some respects is how LAL played UTA in their first game of the playoffs. It was the kind of game where teams were getting their shots. LAL was slightly comfortable with their lead at times and could afford UTA to stay close. LAL and SAS are both solid F/T shooting teams, and have penetrating point guards. They also have great 3pt range, mid-range jumpers, and alot of offensive versatility. The scores in their previous contests this year are really hard to use as a basis for making a decision tonight. One game had multiple injuries, another was a late season throwaway game.
I just see a hard game, that's played a little bit looser and faster than expected, with a ton of free throws, and a high shooting percentage. The o/u is dropping because we are infatuated with SAS playing under the total. This is one game, where I think it will go over.
GL tonight!
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TightWad | 11 |
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Good to be back guys:
CLE First team to 20 pts +145 WIN
Gennaro - good question about 1H bet. I was on the fence and took "First to 20" because it offered a better payout. This kind of bet offers a real quick fix and pays out after only 10 mins into the game.
Retburj, Doublem9, Lakers34kb: Nice getting back in the mix. Let's see what kinds of lines we get in CLE in Game 6.
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TightWad | 6 |
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Record: 0-0
CLE First team to 20 pts +145
They will come out strong against a BOS team that is confident they will win at home. I think BOS will win the game though.
GL tonight.
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TightWad | 6 |
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Hustleman, Holy crap. The day I start posting again, and this thread pops up? What the heck?
Too bad the good old PHX Q1 days are gone. Any picks for tonight?
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hustle_man | 835 |
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I remember my 20s. Enjoy the day. Bet well, and drink heavily.
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WussieMan | 99 |
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great comment about Bibby. He took massive abuse in Boston from the fans, but that guy has been around a long time. I didn't like his play last year, but definitely give him props in the playoffs.
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VGPOP | 12 |
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hardrockLV - I may be having an "off" day, but you're an idiot. LOL. And I thought you were saying "good bye" to this thread. Go back to sleep on your mom's couch. Sweet dreams.
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sportsladyd | 18 |
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Be wary of that +14. That's a lot of points in the playoffs especially after 2 solid wins by ATL. The books are giving them zero credit. Think to yourself at what point would you bet on the Celtics? -10, -7, -6? The +14 is drawing in ATL and anti-Celtics money. I'm not sure either way, but will be watching for sure.
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Gladiators | 4 |
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