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Despite the fact that Seattle is a tough place to play, neither of these teams remotely resemble last year's versions. The books don't seem to have adjusted for that. TUL still has the rep of doormat and SEA has the rep of champs (albeit one year removed).
I also have been surprised by Tulsa's knack for turning over opponents AND protecting the ball. Turnover differential in their first four games: +5, +11, +13, +12. Scoring has been a problem for the Storm, and I don't figure Kloppenburg's defensive system will make that any easier for them. In short, I'm on board. Line movement be damned!
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44-dimes | 14 |
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Quote Originally Posted by sidehustle: Who, realistically, is their biggest competition? They are head and shoulders above the rest of the league. Barring an injury, they will be favorites all year (even on the road). This is evident since they're currently listed as favorites for their visit to the Mohegan Sun, home to the upstart Connecticut Sun. There may be a few instances they are dogs. Possibly a game at LA or Indiana.
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sidehustle | 13 |
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Quote Originally Posted by JEG53: sidehustle this is a very strange league,they used to have all the games for free n the WNBA site,but I went to watch a game in first week and they want money now to watch them. Not my money,some games will be on the NBA channel and ESPN was showing them last years,have not seen any on TV yet. On the Minn.game my guess is maybe the bench played alot to start sec.half and then the starters could not get it going again. You discuss the league, but you won't pay $5 for access to every game?
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sidehustle | 13 |
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Quote Originally Posted by scales1: DT OUT ! money back force -6 Thanks for the heads up. More on this: https://www.wnba.com/mercury/news/taurasi_120531.html
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scales1 | 5 |
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Quote Originally Posted by ktan23: anyone else feel this game going under? 186.5 in 40 mins isn't this kind of high or would you say it's a trap? The number is certainly high, but it's not unreasonable. Phoenix has played 3 games. Two have gone over this number. If the "186 in 40 minutes?" is your angle, I'd look for action elsewhere.
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ktan23 | 4 |
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Quote Originally Posted by JEG53: He said he is not playing it,just going to watch it,I cant get thru one of these games,but this year you cant watch them on live access free,they want money now. C'mon! They only want $4.95 for the whole season. You can't possibly complain about that.
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44-dimes | 27 |
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Quote Originally Posted by hillardoh: i leaning towards under too. i see this being a total between 140 and max 160. can anyone else see this total being too high at 186.5 Did that range for the total come to you in a vision? I just don't see how you could come to that conclusion or why the number wouldn't have been bet down further if it was so wildly off. Phoenix's offensive efficiency has climbed in each of their three games, corresponding to Diana Taurausi's increased minutes as she eases back. Both of these teams like to push the ball. I expect about 90 possessions for each team, and neither is very defensively sound.
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darkknight8425 | 14 |
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Great to see you back at it, Dimes! Best of luck this season. I'm looking forward to discussing the league.
Any thoughts on the PHX @ ATL game they held off the board until earlier today?
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44-dimes | 27 |
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How about Dick Stockon? My favorite line of the night: "Regardless of the style of the game tonight, the series will either be tied or the Celtics will be up 2-0 once it's over."
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CheezeStack | 38 |
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If you are the only one on OKC, then explain why Pinnacle is dealing OKC -7.5 -111.
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tonyrome | 12 |
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If you believe in the numbers teamrankings has generated with their sims, then the value is certainly on the Pacers. They're currently given a 20% shot to win the series. That is vastly better than the +965 (9.4%) 5Dimes is currently dealing.
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Mikado | 51 |
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I took the Pistons regular season win total prop (O 21.5). I have a hard time seeing them get there. You know you're horrendous when you manage to be in the bottom tenth in BOTH offensive and defensive efficiency (27th and 29th, respectively).
One thing is true: they really can't go anywhere but up.
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smartbets | 51 |
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Quote Originally Posted by mikesomoney: Appreciate your work Dimes, but statistically got to fade your 2 unit plays. Hope you win your other games! Tsk tsk. Statistically speaking, it's a small sample size.
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44-dimes | 87 |
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Enjoy your "last hurrah".
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Leodon_Mikraph | 103 |
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Quote Originally Posted by thatsagoodone: Toronto struggles to score, their offense seems so pitiful. I like Dallas to win in a tight game, I'm thinking a 1-4 point win. Yeah I can't remember Portland laying 15. I watched Charlotte last night and they look like me and my friends on the weekend. There's a bunch of no nothing going on. I think Portland just drills them. Unless, Portland is disinterested and I wouldn't blame them. Portland should whip them in front of the Rose Garden faithful, who expect and reward hard-nosed play. It seems to me that there is an artificial limit (around 15 or 16 points) beyond which lines never move. I never see 20+ point dogs, like in College Basketball. I keep meaning to investigate this, but I never have. Any idea why 16 points seems to be the cap? |
thatsagoodone | 42 |
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My sentiment is simple: If it has a 53% chance at -110 juice, bet it. This will prove profitable if you are exercising sound bankroll management. 55% or better is phenomenal. 65, 70, 75+% opportunities are rare.
As for relative strength, Teamrankings.com uses a star system to rank confidence level. They write: "Confidence ratings for betting picks are a different story, as the bar for success is much higher. So we've designed our betting pick stars around a different model. 1-star betting picks indicate which side we think will come out on top if you held a gun to our head, but we have low confidence in these picks. 2-star picks aim to be correct at least 52.4% of the time for standard -110 odds bets, or alternatively, at a rate that would result in profitability over the long term. 3-star betting picks target around 55% performance, although year-to-year variability in results is a higher risk since there are typically fewer of these highly rated picks during a season." |
HoldenRg | 22 |
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I hope Philly has built up confidence from beating up on the league's cellar dwellers. They'll need it tonight against a tough Bulls team that plays well on the road. I think the million dollar question is whose missing pieces will prove more critical?
While I'm with you on the 76ers, I am concerned about their ability to generate good looks. I think we'll see long 2s in abundance. I also think they are going to be massacred on the boards. If Philly manages to protect the ball and shoot well, we cash. If not, I'm afraid I have managed to worsen an already losing record on those instances I've backed Philly, one of the best ATS teams.
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smartbets | 89 |
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I wouldn't brag about a backdoor cover. I imagine your tune was a little different after they got stomped in the 1H.
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Smeddy06 | 36 |
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Ouch. I hope you lay a bagel on the right side of the hyphen next time.
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raems | 17 |
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Seems straight forward. Any particular reason(s) why?
We all know what happened the last time when the Knicks were -12 at home. This is essentially the same line, just shifting the 3.5 pt. home court advantage. No hesitance given Augustin's injury?
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Feri | 9 |
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