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I doubt there are any official stats on this anywhere (I couldn't find them anyway), but from personal experience, through what week do survivor pools last until someone wins? Week 10, 11, 14?
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NBAModels | 1 |
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I was away for a bit but was still working on my model. I think I ironed out a couple of flaws but there is probably still a lot of room for improvement. In any case, my picks have been hitting at about the same rate overall so not seeing returns just yet, but its only been a couple of weeks since I made the changes.
Todays picks: MIN +5 MIL +6 LAC +4 and ML CHA/PHI Over 179 NOH/UTA Over 182.5 CHA has been god-awful and I'm a little worried about that pick, but that's what my model is seeing from their overall numbers.
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NBAModels | 1 |
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ind+4.5
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WillBetAnything | 141 |
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IND +3
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WillBetAnything | 133 |
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My model uses various home/away stats fed into a neural network to determine lines with value. I do not yet see a significant difference in win% based on my forecasts so all bets are for 1 unit, including ML. However, ML picks will only be made on underdogs paying at least +120. So, my ML record is not inflated by picking favorites. Back-testing over 18 years of lines shows a range of about 25-30 units profit per season on roughly 56% on ATS and totals and 49% on ML's. Again, this is based on 1 unit per bet. You could theoretically bet 2 or 3 or even 5 units per bet, but my point is I am betting the same amount per game, including ML. WAS +10 TOR +9.5 IND +3 and ML +130 HOU +5.5 CHA +15 I think the CHA +15 is one of the cases where my model seems to be underestimating the possibility of a blowout. I've been filtering out game data where the margin of victory is >25 pts because that usually only happens around 5% of the time and I don't like how much they skew the data. However, CHA is getting blown out regularly. Six 20+ point defeats and four of 30+ in just 22 games! I don't really have a good solution to the problem yet, so although it may cost me a little money, I'm going to stick with it until I come up with something. |
NBAModels | 2 |
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cha +12.5
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WillBetAnything | 137 |
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I'm going to follow MoneyShot's lead and post this part everyday. My model uses various home/away stats fed into a neural network to determine lines with value. I do not yet see a significant difference in win% based on my forecasts so all bets are for 1 unit, including ML. However, ML picks will only be made on underdogs paying at least +120. So, my ML record is not inflated by picking favorites. Back-testing over 18 years of lines shows a range of about 25-30 units profit per season on roughly 56% on ATS and totals and 49% on ML's. Again, this is based on 1 unit per bet, but you can bet however many units you feel comfortable with as long as you stay consistent.
Went 2-1 last night including 1-0 on the IND ML. Stayed away from TOR but they somehow managed to cover easily, oh well. Tonight's picks: NOH +12 DET +7.5 MIN +6.5 PHO +3.5 and ML HOU/MIN Under 198.5
GL everyone. |
NBAModels | 1 |
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NOH +12
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WillBetAnything | 143 |
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Sigh, DEN totals keep screwing me, but my ML bets have been on fire. Also hit another ATS bringing my total for the night to 2-1, +1.39u.
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NBAModels | 2 |
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I'm going to follow MoneyShot's lead and post this part everyday. My model uses various home/away stats fed into a neural network to determine lines with value. I do not yet see a significant difference in win% based on my forecasts so all bets are for 1 unit, including ML. However, ML picks will only be made on underdogs paying at least +120. So, my ML record is not inflated by picking favorites. Back-testing over 18 years of lines shows a range of about 25-30 units profit per season on roughly 56% on ATS and totals and 49% on ML's. Again, this is based on 1 unit per bet. You could theoretically bet 2 or 3 or even 5 units per bet, but my point is I am betting the same amount per game, including ML.
4-1 last night including both of my ML picks (NJN and PHO). DET was my lone loss as they got blown out and lost every quarter vs PHI. Today's picks: IND +3 and ML +130 DEN/LAC Under 206 I'm a little worried about the DEN/LAC under as I am 0-4 on DEN totals, which alone account for my losing record on totals, but I have to go with what the model says for now.
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NBAModels | 2 |
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IND +3
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WillBetAnything | 118 |
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Got super lucky on the DET over and the ATS but I think that just makes up for the WAS OKC game that went over because of a ton of last minute threes. Regardless, a win is a win and I'll take it. Went a solid 5-2 overall last night including the NJN ML. I stayed away from a few other bets because of injuries but I think I'm going to take all the bets my system gives me for now and see how they perform for the next couple weeks.
Tonights picks: DET +12.5 MIL +5 and ML PHO +3.5 and ML MIL should probably be a no bet but I'm going to just follow the numbers for now. I missed out on going 6-3 in additional bets in similar situations the past few days so I'm going to take a chance on that game.
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NBAModels | 3 |
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Det +13
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WillBetAnything | 88 |
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MEM just didn't have enough to cover against LAC. Game looked pretty good till the end when LAC scored 7 straight points in the final min. Looking through the forum last night, a lot of people seemed to be taking MEM 2H and MEM ML. Guess we all lost on that one.
Hope tonight's picks have a little more luck. DET +6.5 NJN +4.5 WAS +9.5 PHO +9.5 NJN ML MIA/NYK Under 195.5 DET/ATL Over 179 |
NBAModels | 1 |
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Of course Boston makes a furious comeback since I didnt take them, haha. GL greengrocer.
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NBAModels | 3 |
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MEM +4
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WillBetAnything | 104 |
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Went 2-3 last night because I was a moron and forgot that DJ Augustine wasn't playing. Should have been a no bet on the CHA game. Not making that mistake with Rondo and Ray Allen out tonight against ORL. Only one play tonight.
MEM +4
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NBAModels | 3 |
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Went 2-1 last night as CLE kept it close with MIA and tons of turnovers pretty much locked up the under by the first half. I'm working on some modifications to my model that I hope will better filter out some of these games, but in the mean time, here are tonight's picks.
CHA +7.5 DET +9 NOH +12.5 POR +3.5 CHA/WAS Over 193
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NBAModels | 1 |
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CHA +7.5
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WillBetAnything | 138 |
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Amazing comeback by MEM in the 4th quarter put me at 3-2 ATS and 1-0 ML last night. Today's picks:
CLE +13.5 MEM +6 MIA/CLE Under 204 I'm not really feeling the two ATS picks because CLE was obliterated in their last two losses and I kind of feel that MEM might have a letdown game after such a big comeback. But, that's why I built a system in the first place, to eliminate my 'feel' and just go with the numbers. Let's see how they do tonight.
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NBAModels | 1 |
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