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Why the fighting river and black? if there is good data dispense it. i have never seen beaver write a bad word about anyone for sharing a logical point... so since its his thread follow his lead right.
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beaverfan23 | 92 |
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Between Beavers original idea and Kirby idea i think this system might finally have the finishing formula. Good thinking you two, and good help trabs, stiff, flyr
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beaverfan23 | 318 |
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kirby that is brilliant out of the box thinking... good stuff
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beaverfan23 | 318 |
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Beaver, i think u r 100% correct that it is wise to figure out a way 2 narrow r focus. taking steps such as level 1, 2, 3 ect is a good begining... but what else can we do? Perhaps we should try and put some of our own handicapping opinions into the pics? Meaning looking at teams with injuries or 3 straight road games or things like that....I think if we had the knowledge of a nropp or a purduepride then this system would be golden. What do you think?
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beaverfan23 | 275 |
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Bobcat i like you man, you frequently say logical and practical things. Quote Originally Posted by Bobcat36:
to be fair, not sure what the over/under has to do with W/L? Two completely different entities. Can't blame the guy when you tail him on obscure games and they don't win. |
nropp11 | 467 |
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Candy, u are right.. while beaver might have a favorite play by the system its all the same.
Flyer, using the Vegas line as our barometer for picking levels def makes the most sense. Lets Go UCF/SF/Aust Pey
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beaverfan23 | 215 |
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Well i certainly would bet all AWAY games.. its the other games i have ?s about. I dont know enough about ncab to do accurate capping on my own (like Nropp). Anyhow, good luck to all.
And beaver, double check miami o, i am not sure on that one.
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beaverfan23 | 215 |
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How do we go about this? Cant be every game can we???
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beaverfan23 | 215 |
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No disrespect Beaver, just trying to understand the angle behind it... I will do my best to keep up with opposite data so we have something to compare to.
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beaverfan23 | 215 |
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Thanks for doing all that leg work FadeMe, really all of us working this should figure out a way to help each other 2 spread the annoying burden around. Also, Bobcat, i agree with you... y is there a big gap in level 2? I am thinking that all our plays should be based around some basic math principle as far as deviations from the opening number. If in level 1 we look for 2 points, and that is only out of 4 potential points then shouldnt level 2 be capped at around 8/9 and look for 3-4 points depending on line? Quote Originally Posted by fademenow77:
Hey guys....I'm not sure who you use for openers but pinnacle is the sharpest book on the planet so I used them these are what I came up with for Saturday.. Although it looks like my list is fairly different from others so maybe I'll just watch...lol Tennessee +8 KP+11 (3) West Va -2 KP +1 (3) Indiana St -2 KP+2 (4) IUPUFW -1.5 KP+3 (4.5) Southern Miss -1 KP +1 (2) Tex AM -4 KP-2 (2) East Car -4 KP-1 (3) San Fran +16.5 KP+23 (6.5) Providence +2.5 KP+6 (3.5) UL Laf +9.5 KP+14 (4.5) Rhode Island +3 KP+5 (2) Geo Mason -3 KP-1 (2) LA Monroe+9 KP+12 (3) Austin Peay +6.5 KP+10 (3.5) Rice +2.5 KP +5 (2.5) Drake +2 kP +4 (2) Miss st -1.5 KP +1 (2.5) UCLA -11.5 KP-8 (3.5) CSU North +14 KP+18 (4) |
beaverfan23 | 215 |
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Does anyone reading this thread have good knowledge of any of these teams? Meaning someone with insight like Nropp or Sharpstick. If we can add that 2 this thread (knowledgeable handicappers) then i think we cant lose.
For example on the oakland/ western ill game i remember reading Nropp write up on Western ill and they seem to be a very tough matchup for oakland based upon how they play. And oaklands line dropped 1.5 from opening number even with the public pounding them. So while Beaver has lead the way, and Flyer has done his part if anyone else can help then chime in. We all want to win money.
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beaverfan23 | 215 |
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Massive Card 2morro with lots of system games, early look
Oakland, opened at 8, down to 6.5 road fave, public bet 70% Note: they are playing a scrappy western ill team that i think matches up very well with them. Indian Purdue fr wayne HD, Purdue Road Fave with the spread increasing Ark St, Home dog, public pounding denver Orral R, Home fave Troy Home dog, stats say should be home dog Utah, home dog, stats say should be home dog Loyal M, home dog Oregon, home dog, slight line move Mich, road dog, slight line move South Dakota state, Road fav, 1.5 line move Org st home dog Pacific home fav Ucla home fave
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beaverfan23 | 215 |
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Good idea Poolman.
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beaverfan23 | 215 |
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Looking at 2nites plays we see that Kenpom thought Mich st should have been a 9pt dog and vegas has Wisc at 5.5, wisc likely would have been higher had they won the game b4. Idnk but i have a hunch that on highly bet public games we can be sure of our system pic (mich st) because Vegas likely knows that the betting public will play the home favorite off a loss.
Do we have any opinions or data on games that Vegas and kenpom have differnt favs? Conn and SH? On that data SH Hit but Wisc MIlk didnt. 2days plays, Michst had a 3.5pt difference on a 5.5 line, so 65-70% Uconn was 2 pt fav for a difference of 3, Oakland was a 3pt dog for a difference of 2, 66% Ft Wanye 1.5 fav differeence of 3.5 70% hit. so level 1 was 3 and 3 and level 2 was 4 and 0.. and level 3 was 1,0, 1 that is for both nights.
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beaverfan23 | 215 |
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QUOTE Originally Posted by beaverfan23: Official Monday Plays: Wofford +5.5 (Road, Dog, Toward) 60% difference Tennessee -13 (Home, Fave, Toward) 20% difference Rider +11 (Road, Dog, Toward) 30% diff St Peters +1.5 (Road, Dog, Toward) 75% diff Idaho St +9 (Road, Dog, None) UCSB +2 (Road, Dog, None) 50% CS North +5.5 (Road, Dog, Toward) 30% |
beaverfan23 | 215 |
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Ty for input Beaver. I have not yet fully devoted myself to this data but i will this week. Lets say that you each day you produce your normal criteria for data and then Flyer and I can work on adjustments.
Flyer, as per your level break down how do you account for the large gap in level 2? I think Beaver is spot on with 2pts beind a large difference in a 4pt margin, 2 points would account for 50% or better of the total line. So if that is the case then i think level 2 should prob b in the 5-8, or 5-9 range, However, i am not sure if we need to fully deviate from beavers guidlins at this point. All i think we need to do is look at the % difference in spreads from the games Beaver picks and see if we see any nice data with the a larger or smaller deviation. As always. let me know ur thoughts.
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beaverfan23 | 215 |
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Well done, great handicapping
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nropp11 | 467 |
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Stiff and Flyer, i see you guys are putting allot of work into this as is Beaver. I had a thought to throw past you, i am going to try and keep some record of the difference in spreads of the system plays and see if we can see any variables with larger spread differences.
Example, a 6 pt vegas line vs a 9pt kenpom or a 6pt vegas line vs a 12point kenpom line... Anyhow, i bring this up 2 see if you guys can keep an eye on that stuff 2. Beaver does enough work already doing this everyday.
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beaverfan23 | 215 |
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Hmm, it seems my vision and thinking were impaired and i made a mistake... Pitt no play.
Happy new year beaver and good luck 2 everyone
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beaverfan23 | 79 |
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i guess everyone hung over from last night?
2day plays i think are il state road dog mich home fave, slight line move depaul home dog pit home fave |
beaverfan23 | 79 |
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