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There are a lot of mistakes being made in this thread. 1. Words like "dumb" have no place in the discussion. There are reasons for making every decision a human makes throughout there life and you don't know why he wants to stay for another year. If he came out and said "I want to stay in school to make more money" then yea its dumb because he will never be worth more and can only be worth less with the rooke pay scale. 2. A Stanford education is not worth more to ANYONE than $30 million dollars. Unless he is going to get his degree and go work for 50k a year somewhere afterwards this decision makes no economic or career sense. |
14daroad | 98 |
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Oh and the really funny thing about this post is that Arkansas has covered their last like 8 games.
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UMF | 33 |
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Public only recently likes Arkansas and it has to do with the Big 10's Saturday. |
UMF | 33 |
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Arkansas is going to run the ball all night. Under 57 Hogs ML |
Icantfeelmyface | 4 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Stillers55:
OSU travels much better than Arkansas.....FACT.
Not to New Orleans. Fact. |
cmurder33 | 28 |
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Tottenham +155
Fulham +110 Manchester City +275
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Icantfeelmyface | 1 |
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Bolton Liverpool Over 2.5 (-111)
Sunderland -105 Wolverhampton +280 Stoke +155 Tottenham -285 Bolton +425
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Icantfeelmyface | 1 |
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Bolton Liverpool Over 2.5 (-111)
Sunderland -105 Wolverhampton +280 Stoke +155 Tottenham -285 Bolton +425
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Icantfeelmyface | 1 |
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Quote Originally Posted by tomkarw:
IF IS OBVIOUS THAT YOU ARN'T A SERIOUS BETTER, WHEN YOU BET EVERY DAY YOUR OBJECT IS TO BE PLUS MONEY AT THE END OF THE DAY AND HEDGING HELPS BIG TIME. IF YOUR LUCKY ONCE IN AWHILE YOU WILL GET A MIDDLE AND WIN BOTH SIDES. I thought the object was to end up with money over the long haul. You reduce your odds on your original parlay when you hedge like this and Im assuming that there is no middle in this bet. If there is a chance of a middle I can see an argument for it. To say that someone is not a serious bettor because they understand expected value is very old school and close minded. I could actually make a good argument that not putting thought and critical thinking into how you bet would mak you not a serious bettor. You cant make a blanket statement for it either way like what Gabbo said but using a flat example like the OP was and assuming no middle I think its more profitable over the long run to let it ride. |
HugeBallz | 24 |
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Youre talking to someone who doesnt understand EV. If youre going to hedge in that situation and you bet parlays regularly then it makes no sense. He has also guaranteed that he loses money in this proposition.
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HugeBallz | 24 |
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Quote Originally Posted by RJSizzle: I will translate... I have no idea, but I just wanted to post something anyway The post you're making fun of is much more relevant than yours. |
confusedandlost | 13 |
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I only read Double
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Johnnynumbers | 178 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Insight: I agree with the team-by-team analysis factors when capping a game. I am responding to your comment about me in the other thread and an example from this thread. I could be wrong here, but in a case-by-case basis looking at the Arkansas-Ohio State game, how can you say the public will be backing OSU? A case study would show that Arkansas has a Qb that will get drafted high, played the better SOS, and had a fantastic year in a great conference vs. the always overrated, slow team that has played no one and has a QB that can't throw. Add OSU's record vs. SEC and record in big games. While OSU typically gets bet on more by the public (and sharps at times), in this CASE, the public will probably side with Arkansas as they don't respect OSU at all after their two NC games. People still can't get over it. They don't really remember the Oregon game, just the 2 NC. Any thoughts? I agree with what SatNight said. Its not necessarily the % of people that side with Arkansas that matters.I think a much larger volume of money comes in on OSU every week. If that is true then Vegas would set a line with OSU overvalued. My prediction for the line is to stay at -3 the whole way.
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Icantfeelmyface | 6 |
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This Public Service Announcement is brought to you by the good people at Icantfeelmyface Productions. I keep seeing trends in posts recently about fading groups of teams and a lot of arguments based on bias and arguments shaped around affirmation. I'd like to help out by reminding everyone during bowl season to bet responsibly and not to get carried away by betting with our minds not our hearts. In regards to "Fade the SEC" posts, rather than going and posting this in every one started I will lay it out here. First of all Vegas doesnt care about conferences. They care about who bettors back, period. A lot of SEC schools do get backed heavily, for example Florida and Alabama. A lot though, do not. For example, Arakansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee. The thought that Vegas just lumps all the teams in a conference together and says "We are going to overvalue these teams because they are in the SEC" is silly. Its a team by team basis people, this mentality is why people lose and Vegas wins. Secondly, people we arent discussing the correct things when we talk about betting. Sports are all about matchups guys. It has nothing to do with who youve beat or who youve lost to it has to do with how well you match up against the other team. These arguments I hear all the time are lazy, its easy to just look at a teams record and compare wins and losses but it takes time to break down what specifically teams are good at and what their weaknesses are. Really just trying to bring some rationality to the forum, a lot of people here love college football and there is a lot of oppinion and not enough critical thinking going on here. BOL to all (clover) (handshake). |
Icantfeelmyface | 6 |
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me----> <---you
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mtp104 | 37 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Insight: You honestly think that they put that line with OSU being favored because of the public love for the Buckeyes. That might be the funniest thing I have read in a long time. Ohio State is slow, overrated, and has less superior athletes in the opinions of everyone in the US. In fact, I'll bet there are people in Russia that think OSU is slow. That is the "come on man" post of the year. The public thinks OSU is garbage. Ask anyone outside of Ohio and you will get the same song and dance. Lawl. This line is %100 based on public backing noob. Should be Arkansas -3. |
Daran.T | 42 |
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Quote Originally Posted by nc1capper: fade the sec all you want buddy- no way I'm putting any group of teams in one mass play--each game will be capped on a per game basis--have you lost your mind |
mtp104 | 37 |
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Quote Originally Posted by -bringit-: i think ur missing his point. theres not many QBs that could have done better than Wilson. Mallett is a great QB, but he is prone to costly interceptions, and like moo said, i dont know if mallett could have done much better This would be a smart thing to say if Wilson hadnt thrown 2 interceptions late in the game to lose it.
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jwheels86 | 39 |
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Quote Originally Posted by ApocalypseLater: i really was asking Middleman... however... i think anybody is fucking crazy if they want to bet against TCU... especially against a team like Wisconsin... Bet how you want man but Wisconsin is going to fist fuck TCU. Its not going to be close.
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middleman820 | 62 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Laroja: TCU might be the favourite, doesn't matter though. Leaning Wisky. Whiskey -7 Id bet 50% of my net worth that TCU isnt favored.
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middleman820 | 62 |
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