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Guys - I have been betting this trend all year and I thought I would share some of the results. I do not bet ANY OTHER NBA games EXCEPT what I call "The Trend". Fade: Teams playing AWAY on the 2nd half of a B2B - I've created a * System to determine unit size for each of these games, which I will outline below. 11* - Unit Size: Max Play $250+ Lean +.500 team @ home against -.500 team on the second half of a b2b. 10* - Unit Size: Large Play $175 - 200 Lean +.500 team playing @ home against +.500 team who is on the second half of b2b 9* - Unit Size: Mid sized play $125-150 +.500 team playing on the road against -.500 team who is @ home but second half of b2b 8* - Unit size $75-100 +.500 team playing on the road against a +.500 who is @ home on second half of b2b 7* unit size small play $50 -.500 team playing @ home against +.500 team on second half of b2b 6* minimal play/no play -.500 team on the road playing a +.500 team even though the +.500 team is on second half of back to back (testing this one a lot because the -.500 team seems to be covering quite a bit). As of right now, 9*-11* games are covering the spread 79% of the time. 7-8* games are covering 61% of the time 6* games are being tested. Intrerested in testing another theory about teams playing 3rd game in 4 nights - that's in the works. Lastly, I make my plays as such: 9* - 11* Gameline, 1H, 1Q - unit size consistent - if spread is 10 or more points, I avoid gameline plays and tease all the gamelines instead 7* - 8* 1H, 1Q - I only play game line if I'm getting more than 7 points or not giving up more than 4. 6* - TESTING plays
Here's the deal - if you follow this trend, you have to make plays 100% of the time, no matter your confidence level, because weird shit happens and you don't want to miss the miracle. The NBA is moving away from the b2b games every week to keep players healthier so take advantage of this shit now. This will become the offical B2B Thread - post all questions and comments here, please don't post success or failures, we will all see that in our own picks because they will be the exact same. Marshall Out. |
IamRyanMarshall | 2 |
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Large Play: 5 units ($500) Old Dominion -8 1 Unit Plays ($100/game) IU -10.5 UVA +19 GA Southern +5 ND -17.5 N Texas -2.5 1/2 Unit ($50/play) UofFla -10.5Michigan State -15.5 Ole Miss -2.5 Oregon -2.5 |
IamRyanMarshall | 3 |
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Pitt 1P
Pitt 2P Pitt 3P Pitt in regulation Pitt -1.5 Pitt ML I think that about covers it. Go Sabres.
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Lippsman | 44 |
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Both large plays hit $$$$
On ASU, TCU, Wyoming, Texas, Northwestern. One unit each. |
IamRyanMarshall | 16 |
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What are your thoughts on the following:
South Carolina Texas Tech Thinking of making both large plays.
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bookieassassin | 23 |
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Quote Originally Posted by S_A_I_N_T_S: On Buffalo as well.. Wiseguy offered some great advice. I'd add that you have to develop an edge. Edge is pretty much everything in this game. But even with it, you have to manage your money well. Don't take the bait of playing too many games and stretching your bankroll too thin. Especially if you don't have an edge. It is better to go hard at what's working well.. BOL to you Thanks Saints! Univ at Buffalo Bulls Unfortunately it was a wash for me as the over didn't hit and Akron didn't cover. I follow the old timers on here that can truly call themselves handicappers, rather than gamblers. Last week I got smeared in CFB and made it up in NFL - this week, I dropped my unit to $50 until I figure out what the hell I'm doing out here. I don't know why I have such a better read on the NFL - never played at that level, but my record betting on NFL is far better than CFB. My passion is by and large in College Football and watching these kids grow into men and real football players. Again, thanks for the input and advice, I take that garbage to heart. I know you could be spending your time on other threads. All the best to you - Marshall
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IamRyanMarshall | 16 |
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Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36: If you wagered on CMU ........... Congratulations The majority of bettors though had the other side. You have to be willing to watch MAC football to be good at betting on MAC football. I took CMU and actually thought I was going to lose. I grew up down the street from the University at Buffalo - terrible football, but I went to a lot of games. I've seen all these schools play and maybe more importantly, I've played against these schools. I'll keep betting on MAC football because I'm going to watch it regardless.
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WISEGUY36 | 42 |
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Adding:
Arizona State - whenever my book releases the line. I'm basically just fading UCLA and Josh Rosen, who is the worst of the "top QB prospects" being discussed this year. Kid has no decision making ability, and less weapons to boot. Josh Allen is the best QB in this upcoming draft in my opinion - sure, he doesn't play in a power 5 conf, but it doesn't matter does it?! ah hem! cough Wentz cough! For that reason, on Wyoming +3 as well. Love watching that kid play.
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IamRyanMarshall | 16 |
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On Ak-rowdy tonight too. Best of luck to us
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2LEGIT2QUITU | 10 |
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Large Play: $500
Texas Tech -7 Allow me to provide some color around this pick. I have been thinking about this game for 2 weeks now. Have you seen the programs Texas Tech has lost to? 5 really tough programs - all of whom, with the exception of Oklahoma, they hung around with in high scoring games. Did you see what Tx Tech did to Kansas coming off a 6 point loss to Ok St? 65-19... Baylor is going to get the same kind of beat down in my estimation. Expect the Red Raiders to put up 50+ points on a bad Baylor football team. Considering another large play on South Carolina at home... Need to do some more research on this game, but I just don't think UF is any good and S. Carolina is feeling confident after hanging around with a good Georgia football team. This should about do it for me this week.
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IamRyanMarshall | 16 |
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Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36: Don't be so hard on yourself. We all started here . It is truly a learning process. I began the process to learn betting CFB in 1979 . I say this as did not make an actual bet until 1981. I wanted to see if I could understand the process first. I had early limited success and as I learned , my local made it tougher to bet into good numbers . This led me to start flying from Chicago to LV to wager in 1985. I moved here in 1994. I bring this up for this reason , Even in my worst moments of trying to figure out why a wager went against me and correcting my error going forward, I never gave up the challenge. After all of these years , I find I am still learning every week. A few tips for you : 1. Approach each week with a healthy respect for the challenge you face in being successful at this. 2. Keep detailed notes and records of the games you capped , what was your strategy . What worked as well as what did not. 3. Expand your capping strategy on what is working . Add to it. Discard what over time does not work. 4. When looking at stats and numbers , remember they are backward looking and do not necessarily reflect the potential of future matchups. 5. Understand just what the stats are trying to tell you and how to use them to your benefit. This takes much time and effort. 6. Once you understand the relationship between data points , you can do a lot to determine value on a play , as well as win probability. 7. When you can master item # 6 . Capping becomes a whole lot more fun. Best of Luck to you this week Wiseguy! Thanks for the feedback here, really appreciate you sharing that story with me. How cool to be capping and enjoying sports for such a long time. I hope just to make it out of a week with my bankroll in tact, let alone do it for 25+ years. I got into capping because I was a large wager guy - picked one game and bet the house on it... Lost my bankroll too many times and started to seek out the answers to a better betting strategy which I found right here on Covers. Guys in this thread have given me some really solid advice, much like what you just stated above and I've take what I liked and applied it to my game. Good luck to you this week, would love to see what you're going to wage on this week.
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IamRyanMarshall | 16 |
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Adding:
Pitt -9 Texas Tech -7 Washington -6 South Carolina -7 Rutgers +31 Iowa +12 Duke -3 UAB +8 FAU -6 ND -3 Ark State -11.5 |
IamRyanMarshall | 16 |
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Quote Originally Posted by WahooS: teasers are tough in college, better in NFL (in my opinion) nice job with your own thread, love it, keep posting it weekly you will figure it out Thanks Wahoo. You're right, I make great money on NFL teasers, but I play them in CFB at times when I need the over/under to rise or fall 7-10pts. We'll see if I had it right tonight! Thanks for stopping by, looking forward to reading your stuff later on today. Marshall
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IamRyanMarshall | 16 |
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Adding Teaser:
Akron +14 Over 45 SU Bet: My hometown Univ. Buffalo Bulls -8 First time I've bet the Bulls all year as they were bit by the injury bug pretty good this season. They should handle BGSU easily enough.
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IamRyanMarshall | 16 |
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Hundley throws for less than 100, Jones is held in check, GB defense lets Stafford finish drives. Detroit by 9 and the under.
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imaxfli | 10 |
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Don't even bother reading this - just a rookie trying to figure out how to handicap. Good luck this week everyone.
Got beat up in CFB on Saturday, made it all up on Sunday going 8-0 on NFL picks (not including 3 teasers that hit for large money). One Unit: EMU - 1 Boston College +3 Toledo -6 (MAC Championship preview, I take it) North Texas -23 Mizzou -11 Leans: South Carolina -7 or less, Pitt -7 or less, SMU <+3, UCF waiting for line Back with more later.
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IamRyanMarshall | 16 |
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Nice looking card - Happy Monday bookie. I'm on that EMU -1 pick early this morning and working on the rest of my picks now. Got the good ole gold sheet out today!
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bookieassassin | 23 |
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Adding Teaser: Az +19.5 Fresno State +2.5 Washington U -2 SDSU -11 Adding Straight plays: Wash -15 Fresno State -10 AZ +7 Earlier today Added: Ole Miss +4 Ok State Pk Wazzu pk NW -3 Good luck everyone, watching Texas/TCU, need a win here.
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IamRyanMarshall | 5 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Newtons Law:
Can anyone summarize Wahoos picks and any leans please? Sounds like you're up for the task, brotha man! |
WahooS | 213 |
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3-2 So far... Best of luck to everyone out there today! Navy -7 EMU +24 N ILL +9 Idaho +18 Marshall +8 Still laughing...
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IamRyanMarshall | 5 |
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