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Quote Originally Posted by micka466:
ya ya just like the BROWNS was ur pic of the wk last wk, right? fade fade fade....ur terrible at this "Sammy girl"... -1
Go back to Troll school; or better yet? Real School.
Incase you are just stupid and not trolling?
People are wrong when betting all the time, Season winners are and season losers.
In fact, the winners are usually wrong about 40% of the time.
Knowing that. What exactly is your point?
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Arizona doesn't score many points on offense. Good thing interception Jay, shows up to play for The Cardinals. Arizona's defense may even take back a pick six, and allow the offense to be in postion for field goals. They don't call it gambling for nothing, Cardinals ML 5 uits. Besides Vue is on The Bears. Bears 10 Cardinals 13 |
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This is no more than a Bye week for The Pats. Sure, it looks like a football game is being played, but there realy isn't. The Patriots, should be up by 21-28 points by half. Patriots 41 Jags 9 |
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The experts I use (been slacking on covers picks and it doesn't reflect that, sorry if it seems like deception or trolling). Have put me on a nice 8-0 streak, including some monster parlays that made it a great Christmas. In short, they say (as well as Colin) that this is one of the solid locks of the week. I was told a long time ago, never listen to anyone that doesn't have to deal with the consequences if the advice fails. The people I listen to, do this for a living and if it doesn't work out they lose money - alot of it, which hurts them. That's why I'm with The Cowboys here and large.
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Covers | 36 |
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This would be a perfect spot, for a Eagles cover. As a football fan, there is no way I think the Eagles covers this and or win. It makes no sense, that the Eagles would cover at all. They are horrible. However as a betting man, and knowing the public loses, this is the perfect game to fade RG3 mania. Going against the "Oh this game is a lock" fan insticts, is what makes money. I know people said the browns were going to do that last week but I strongly believe a divisional game makes it more possible. I won't bet on this game, since I can't bring myself to bet on the Eagles at all this year. However I see a certain wisdom in fading the public and RG3 mania here. |
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I got The Texans -7.5 at my book. Early action was at 9.5, shows how much this line has dropped. It bounced around between 9.5 and 9.0 for awhile, even with the public hammering the vikings didn't move much. Then Saturday it moved 2 points, to 7.5.
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Ended up getting the Packers -12. Feel good about that, seems like easy money to me. However every week, minus one when all the favorites won. There are always games that "This is a sure thing." and betters say "Don't make it too complicated, best team wins". Houston - Jags, Cardinals - Pats, Broncos - Chiefs, Titans- Lions, Steelers - Cheifs, Cardinals - Lions, Raiders - Falcons. Those are just examples, and that's how the books make thier money. This game would seem to fit on the list, I mean in the weather and Green Bay playing for perhaps a bye, all signs point to donimation. However the public wins sometimes, and I think, This game, and The Pats game, are the public wins for sure this week. I know some "for sure" bets "Can't lose bets", won't work out this week for the public. Just a question, which ones. Probably the Browns - Broncos and The Colts at Chiefs. |
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Thanks for the insight Sammy on Mathews.
I think the trap game of the week, is The Texas and Vikings. The odds makers clearly believe setting that line, the public will be all over The Vikings and they are. However this game, I'll side with the public and take GB for some easy money because it seems they are setting the line to scare people off The Packers. Score should be around 31 to 13 or so. Vue says The Vikings are his prime play, which proves my point. Two team Packers and Texans, 20+ units. |
Covers | 37 |
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AP had 200+ yards rushing and The Vikings lost on the road to the Seahawks.
In fact The Vikings have a much better record, when he runs Under 120 yards. They will have to pass to win this game, and that won't happen. This line, seems to be broadcasting to the public to take The Vikings, just like The Colts line last week was set for people to take them. Texans - Anything under or at 10. The public is also on the Vikings right now, which makes me like it all the more. Houston 28 Vikings 17 I like AP to have a big game, at the same range as the Seahawks. |
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Great write up Sammy and I agree.
Only thing I would add is Clay is out for the year as far as I know. |
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I meant 16-20 points, sorry.
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I see Vue is on The Cardinals; and now I'm suddenly nervous.
I'm probably a average better most of the time. The only thing I am really good at is winning ML bets. This year I cleaned up on The Cardinals winning on the road against The Patriots. Laid down 20+ units on the money line. My record is about even, slightly ahead on everything else, one good or two good money line wins, is all you need to have a great year. I like the fact The Cardinals are starting John Skelton over Lindley. I also like the fact the bookies here are milking public perception; that The Cardinals offense will be as bad Sunday as the last two weeks. This team just isn't watched nationally and because of which, there is heavy action on The Seahawks and people are drinking the Kool-aid Seatle will cover. John is good for 17 points to 20 points, with Browner out. The Seahawks can score anywhere from 13 - 24 points, the defense for The Cardinals doesn't give up. If I had to guess, on the score? Seahawks 23 Cardinals 16 However, I think Arizona has a chance to win this game, probably 30-35% because of which. 20 unit play Arizona -10 20 unit play Arizona ML |
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Lindley will be even more confused by Rex Ryan's defense than he was with the rams.
He will have at least two turn overs and Arizona can't recover from that on the road. The only chance the Cardinals have is the defense getting more turn overs than mistakes on Lindley's part. Even then, they win by no more than 3 points. Any other QB they have under center and I'd probably take the Cards but not with Lindley. This Arizona team, when it wins, they don't win by much, it's always a nail bitter and close. I understand the Jets suck, but the Cardinals are even worse (not defense) offensively right now, been a Cards fan since the early 80's. I have no questions about the matchup of the Cardinals defense vs the Jets offense. With Lindley under helm, he has show flashes but will make mistakes. The defense will put up a fight but they will be grinded down by the 4th quarter. Jets 19 Cardinals 13 2 unit play on the Jets. |
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Sammy Ace and Doc like the Falcons. I really really hate to go against these guys. They are money.
No disrespect but I usually fade Vue, and he likes The Sanits as well. Liked the Chiefs and the Giants last week along with the Doc and Sammy and I won. I'll stick with the Saints though 3 unit play, if I win, I get money and if I lose I get to laugh at myself for going against Doc and Sammy.. so it's win/win for me! |
Covers | 109 |
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I was one of the people who bought the Kool-aid of the Vikings coming off the bye and covering the spread against the bears.
Won't make the mistake again. Vikings wide receivers, minus Harvin dropped six passes last Sunday. Ponder, only completed three passes of ten yards or more, and what was scary was he only had ten of those throws, when his team was behind pretty much the whole game. Frazier calls a very conservative game play style and that won't help them against the packers. This team kicks field goals in the red zone as well. The Packers got steam rolled last week and I picked the Giants in that game. At home, against a below average Vikings team, I look for them to get back on track and make a example of them. Packers 31 Vikings 16 |
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Drew Brees hasn't thrown for 300 yards in 5 weeks. The Falcons defense is a solid 13th against the pass.
While Matt Ryan has really lit it up, even surpassing Brees by total yards this year and the Saints have the 30th ranked pass defense. After coming off a hard fought emotional win against the Bucs and losing to the Saints already once, it's hard to think they get swept by the Saints at home. The Falcons however weren't able to cover against The Raiders (who did pretty well against that defense), The Panthers and Arizona with that struggling offense but of course Arizona also had the 2nd best pass defense in the NFL. Divisional games, always seem to be closer than betters expect, pointing towards games such as Houston/Jax. Unless we see a turn over meltdown, I see a very close Falcons victory by 1-3 points. They have won by the skin of their teeth a few times this year, regardless of the skill level, of the other team at home. I see no reason to think that will change especially in a divisional match up. Saints +3.5 and no less. I'm playing 2 units on it myself. |
Covers | 109 |
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The Egirls and Pampers, hard to pick a worse match up than that.
Maybe Jags, Browns? Any case, a one unit play on the Pampers because, even Scam Newton should be able to do well against that defense. |
Covers | 117 |
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The Bears and Vikings are going head to head, as the two best worst teams in the NFC.
The Colts and Bills do the same thing for the AFC today. I read that in a article and it's true. Have watched a handful of Bears and Vikings games, and think I have a somewhat good feel for each team. This is a small bet for me- when it doubt, take the points. Beyond that, Bears offensive line + Vikings Defensive line = sacks, Cutler + secondaries = Picks, Adrian Peterson vs Just about anyone = Over 100 yards and most likely a few tds, Bye week + more time to rest and prepare against a equal or slightly better team usually = win. |
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The Public got their wins, on Thanksgiving. With the exception of the Lions (Cryins) and in some cases that was a push, which was the one game I did like.
The Patriots the public was on, The Redskins as well. Public is all over the broncos in this spot, and it seems like a "For sure deal" and is going to be a "35 to 9" game. Most Betters are saying "The Broncos are too hot right now". Taking the Chiefs in this spot, is playing on the house side, new account but have read these forums for awhile. Sammy Ace and Doc, love them and are my favorite posters. With their advice and the public fade Angle, I think a 10-15 unit play on the Chiefs is a good idea. I remember the Steelers/KC match up, the betting public having the same attitude. Other games that come to mind is Oakland/Atlanta and Jax/Greenbay - there is a pattern there. Don't let Ben being out, distract you from the Chief's cover. You have to go against your brain in times like this and head to Bizarro land if you want to win in the NFL. I think the score ends up with a inspired Chiefs effort at home, 19 to 13 in the favor of the Broncos. Chiefs +10.5 is the play. |
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Meant NFC sorry guys. But to be fair, could be the best team in the AFC too I guess. lol
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