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The trend is this... teams that won their last game to qualify for a bowl are 37-17 ATS since 2012. The logic behind it makes sense too. These teams aren't just happy to be there they want to prove they deserved a bowl. Also, the public should look at a 6-5 (or 6-6) bowl team and think they aren't that good. |
BoomerOU | 11 |
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So... you can bet $25,000 a game but don't shop lines?? There was plenty of +10 Tor out there.. that's what I had and I am a much smaller player than that. |
Nydegen1211 | 28 |
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created a topic
Let Lowry get the ball! There's no way he will make a game winning shot!
in NBA Betting It looked like the Warrios intentionally let Lowry get the ball for the game winner knowing there's no way he would make it..... |
BoomerOU | 14 |
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When a game is 3-0 at halftime (and the total is over at least 40 for the game) under 28 pts in the 2nd half is 34-10. Of course this is the Super Bowl and the Rams/Patriots but still.... taking the under. |
BoomerOU | 2 |
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I think it's a decent bet but not a great one. The PowerBall part is somewhat hard to judge, because the higher the jackpot the more people play and the higher the chance it's hit. If you figure on 10 hit a year that's about 19% chance of it hitting in any given week.
If you figure the Rams have about a 45% chance of winning the ML bet, then .45*.19= 8.5% which equates to +1076 and +2485 is a 3.87% chance to win. Looks like about a 4.5% advantage, but there is a lot of extrapolation. Being able to pin down the odds of the Powerball hitting by checking the amount and frequency that size hits (because of the number of players) would allow a better calculation. Either way I think you have small edge but less than 10% chance of winning. Worth a for fun bet. |
Nothin2It | 2 |
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Whoever is letting you make bets like this will go broke. The correlation is so high it's like printing money. Like you said 40% is profitable and this is over 80%. |
CrusCrnshw | 7 |
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62% of the bets are on Anaheim but the money is on the Kings. The line on the Kings has gone from -120 to -155. |
BoomerOU | 1 |
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Yeah, I'm really liking my under 9.5 wins futures bet. |
jonny_boy717 | 7 |
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Hey LongHornHooiser, I am curious as to your take on the Longhorns O/U season total at 9.5 wins? I had an earlier post where I thought the under was a great bet. Do you see your Longhorns being able to win 10 (or even 9) games this year? I don't see it, but maybe you have a better insight? |
LonghornHoosier | 55 |
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It's incredible you can even get this. A 6 (before bowl) win team from last year with only minor improvements. The defense will be solid again, but the offense is bad.... really bad. And in the Big 12 you have to score... because the other teams will. |
BoomerOU | 5 |
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I had an alternate run line of Mets- 2.5 at 5 Dimes and it was graded as a loss. Just got off the live chat and they quoted the "Suspended games are graded as though completed if 5 innings have been played (4.5 if the home team is ahead)" Even though it was suspended in extra innings tied. I can see where there are coming from as long as all +run bets were winners and all -run bets were losers and all ML bets would be pushed and total would be graded at 2 runs. As long as it's consistent and fair, I think it's ok. |
kimoinsd808 | 24 |
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It was there for about an hour before they fixed it. I wonder if someone popped it big or they just noticed. |
BoomerOU | 5 |
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On 5 dimes right now..... Twins / White Sox O4.5 F5 -110 U4.5 F5 +120. You could bet 580 @ -110 and 500 @ +120 and win either 27.28 or 20.00 guaranteed...... Well unless they come back later and cancel your winning bet and leave you with the loser. |
BoomerOU | 5 |
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I'll second this bet. I already made it and got it for even money. Based on regular season numbers this is about a 59% winner which is a nice overlay.
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EastsideBangers | 16 |
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My faves: |
DoubleUp4Life | 87 |
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If anyone is still interested in this, they have updated what games fit this "MAH" score for 2017. So far there have been 7. They have been 5-2 ATS so far this year and 7-0 on the ML (albeit some big spreads).
Today Houston is on the alert @ Indiana. Interestingly this looks to be already figured into the line since Houston is only a 3.5 point favorite and you would expect them to be much higher.
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YouLikeThat | 72 |
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I think you are right. I hate betting against my Thunder but I took the KINGS at +535.... just too much value.
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ILLWILL2WIN1 | 8 |
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Professor, do you discuss any deeper about what goes into your selections? I would really like to hear your methodology. It sounds like you use the expected win percentage from Vegas lines at the beginning of the year. Then you make modifications based on game conditions (injuries, rest, psychology, whatever else you find relevant.)
The thing is those expected wins become outdated very quickly. Teams are better or worse than Vegas first expected. So if you are using expected wins for a team like Orlando or Detroit or OKC then you may be using bad data. Sure, you can count on some regression to the mean but I don't think you can use expected wins as a baseline for your bets.
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Professor-MJ | 25 |
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I played GianFrancos system last year, and I'll follow this closely this year. Everyone just has to remember this will show a big winning percentage... it has to in order to make money.
For $100 bets: If you lose 1st half you are down $110 You must bet $231 in the 2nd half to win back the $110 and profit $100 total. So if you lose both you are down $341 and if you win you are only +$100. This equates to the system having to win at least 78% to show a profit. Just blind betting would achieve a 75% win rate, (3 of 4 coin flip series wins) so the handicapping has the same edge to overcome as a straight bet. The theory is that high pace / high scoring teams will go over in at least one half more often than that. |
chaimonster | 24 |
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Of all these I think the Kings have the best chance against my Thunder. Thunder so inconsistent so far. +535 on the ML is a good price.
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Yorky99 | 3 |
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