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Quote Originally Posted by barneybeans: My EARLY season approach (first 6 weeks) on a very VERY high level - not getting into any details - is pretty situational. I look for the lines that are inflated based on last year's numbers - is there is value in the dog? Most pitchers need time to get into form (Kershaw no) Most batters need a little time to get into form (Headley no) Batters get there faster - especially in the cold weather, pitchers seem to need better weather instead of 40 degrees in the northern ballparks in April. So I put more weight in the early goings with teams that are hitting (and also how they hit and who they are hot against, ballpark, righties vs lefites) than I do with a pitcher's numbers from previous years. Of course I am not talking about a Clemons or a Kershaw - I lay off their first few starts instead of taking the early +190 or more unless the pitcher for the dog is a solid veteran, then consider half a unit. Regarding hitting, last week the Pirates were hitting some really long, warning track balls at Wrigley on a day where the wind was blowing in. Next game wind blowing out and the Pirates were +$200, I saw a slugfest and will always take the huge dog in a slugfest. No need to look too deeply into splits. Most of the above are some April only philosophies. Lastly each year there is (or not) a mediocre team (or two), a sleeper team, that comes out strong (immediately or after about 15,20 games in) and will go like 22-10 run - or something like that, only to get to below .500 where they belong by June. In recent 10 years I recall Pirates, KC, Astros, Brewers, and a few others that sucked prior seasons, came out strong current season and regressed to the mean after about 40 or 50 games. The trick is to find them early as dogs before they go to .714 PCT and laying wood. Ditto this with pitchers, some early, non superstar pitcher gets a little run support, has his stuff, facing interleague batters that may not know him yet, some luck and a good spot in the rotation and immediately you've got a quick 8 game winner in 13 starts named Duffy that has always been just a "good solid" pitcher and the team goes 11-2 in games he starts. So for me in the begining of the season I mostly look at matchups from a situational standpoint putting less weight than I should on starting pitchers (which is why I rarely list the first 5 weeks of the season) and as usual looking for line value. Can I really say that MIL tonight has an honest 60% chance of winning, true line of +-$150 and that +$105 is a .55 cent bargain? Not at all. The numbers I should use to get to that 60% are just not relaible in my internal handicapping system. So I am going by situational variables. BOL This is awesome Barney I really appreciate you taking the time to do this write-up! It sparked a train of thought that didn't exist prior toward reading it. I'm extremely grateful. dumped spartan werker mancity gg I appreciate the info guys. I can already tell this forum will be a very valuable learning tool. Thank you all for your time!
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BeachedWhaleee | 18 |
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AFC East
NE 14-2 (1 seed) MIA 7-9 BUF 4-12 NYJ 2-14 AFC North PIT 11-5 (3 seed) BAL 7-9 CIN 4-12 CLE 2-14 AFC South TEN 10-6 (4 seed) IND 9-7 (6 seed) JAX 9-7 HOU 8-8 AFC West OAK 12-4 (2 seed) LAC 10-6 (5 seed) KC 9-7 DEN 6-10 NFC East NYG 13-3 (1 seed) DAL 10-6 (5 seed) WSH 7-9 PHI 5-11 NFC North GB 12-4 (2 seed) DET 10-6 MIN 8-8 CHI 4-12 NFC South ATL 11-5 (4 seed) TB 10-6 (6 seed) NO 7-9 CAR 7-9 NFC West SEA 12-4 (3 seed) AZ 7-9 LAR 3-13 SF 2-14 Wild Card Round Pit over Indy Chargers over Ten Sea over TB Atl over Dal Divisional NE over Chargers Oak over Pit Giants over Atl GB over Sea Conference NE over Oak NYG over GB Superbowl Patriots finally get the SB Eli monkey off their backs Pats over Giants
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BeachedWhaleee | 8 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Werker: My basic methodology is trying to follow the sharp money. Sportsinsights has some great data. It's worth the year subscription?
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BeachedWhaleee | 18 |
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Why don't you use Bitcoin?
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BlackThunder42 | 10 |
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Games that instantly stuck out to me:
Bal +1.5 @ Cin Atl -6 @ Chi NYG +5.5 @ Dal NO +3.5 @ Min SD +4 @ Den Sea/GB over 50 Car/SF over 48.5 Det/AZ under 49 What are you guys looking at with first glance?
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BeachedWhaleee | 15 |
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Thanks for all the responses so far guys! I definitely appreciate anyone who takes the time out of their day to give any input!
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BeachedWhaleee | 18 |
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New to sports betting. I'm assuming I probably won't get a ton of information here, but I figured I'd ask (I understand why successful bettors wouldn't want to give any real info away and that's fine).
I was just wondering what methods are used to cap games. I've been lurking here for a while now while trying to figure out my own system, and I feel like my head is going to explode. -Do you spend long periods of time methodically breaking down games? -Do you have databases of years of advanced statistics? -Do you look for trends with the movement of lines in correlation with public action? -Do you look at each game as situational? -Do you follow the sport closely and watch a lot of tape? -Do you have software that runs simulations? -Other/all of the above? I appreciate any info I get, and thank anyone in advance. I'm frustrated, but I'll keep at it and work hard. Just thought I would post this to see if anyone gives any valuable info! Thanks guys. |
BeachedWhaleee | 18 |
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