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Quote Originally Posted by best_bets: LOL I watched him pitch in Oakland on Aug 2nd. Then in his next start against SF he was tanked after 5. If he takes his team to the 7th and KC is leading then my hat I will be off to Vargas but he's a gas can. Vargas is by no means an ace pitcher, but his numbers this year are pretty consistent and definitely not "gas can" stuff. The majority of his 21 starts this year have seen him make it to the 7th and he has given up more than 3 ER in only 5 games. Like I said, not an ace by any stretch, but I could name 50 worse starting pitchers this year pretty easy lol. I'm on the fence as far as if he will tire out early tonight after his last game. He is the type to fade usually after he goes deep the game before. But he only threw the ball 97 times in the complete game against Oakland. So not sure if it comes into play this game or not. Not a guy I would like to bet this much juice on, but he has given up only 2 runs out of 21 innings (3 games) against the twinkies this year and KC is hitting well so I will put down a R/L bet.
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crunch101 | 10 |
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replied to
Every single capper so far today has picked the Tigers...that means that I am picking...
in MLB Betting
Man..just want to say sorry in advance for being the nerd with his hand raised, but my ocd would not let me stay quiet. I let the first one slide with the "never seen such a difference of opinion," but then you came back a few posts later and you had "never seen such disparity." Neither of these statement would apply to a one sided pick as they are showing no difference of opinion and disparity is at 0. Good luck with Detroit. Staying away from that game myself as Kuroda hasn't looked bad lately and I don't trust Detroit's bats and Yanks bullpen playing much better that the tigers.
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Mdpharm23 | 21 |
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I agree that the line movement has me worried but I'm going to take Wainwright and the red birds on the R/L for a small to medium bet. I think if you are backing the cards tonight, it is R/L or nothing. They have 25 wins as a favorite and only 6 of them were by 1 run (76% R/L winners.) It drops off a bit on the road. 9 wins as favorite with 3 coming by 1 run (67% R/L winners.)
Obviously they have a ton of losses as the favorite this year (24, 10 on the road) but IF you are going to take them, I think the R/L is the best value. In the 13 games Waino has pitched, the cards have won 8 by more than 1 run, 2 by only one run and lost 3. It could come down to St. Louis's bats not going cold like they have done several times this year. Not going to be crazy and say this game is a lock, I just think it will be the cards by 2+ or a loss. GLTA
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Chambers | 17 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Chimpo: You must be down or about even. Of those 79 series win, how many wins are result of game 3? If you are betting just 3 times of original bet on game 3 and average win is +135 , then those game 3 wins net you only 0.35 unit each series win . 12 series loss ( 6 unit each = -72 units ) If there were 10 game 3 wins , then your net series win would be 69 + 3.5 unit= 72.5 unit. That will come out to about even. Using your average of +135 for a game 3 and a 3x original bet, the net for a game 3 winner would be 1.05 units. You forgot to multiply .35 by 3x the original bet.... just sayin...if you are going to try to crunch the numbers to figure out if you can find a way to make money. Don't forget to check your math
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QBUN | 1368 |
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I've been following this thread for awhile. Haven't played every series, but have seen that the system has been profitable, both for myself and for Q's system. Before you make comments about possibly going 3-1 and how it would mean losing money...go read all 37 pages. My first time to post in this thread but I for it being "mostly" positive comments and vibes. Never understood why misery loves company and people would come in and question or try to point out flaws in someone else's system and thread.
Keep up the good work Q
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QBUN | 1368 |
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Oh and thanks for a good write up concerning an injury to one of the best players in this finals bb
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begginerboy | 22 |
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Quote Originally Posted by SportsFan9698: Why do you find that hard to believe? They just beat a better team without Parker The Heat are not a good team as far as I can see. Struggled with getting to the finals out of the weaker East. SA motorboated the Blazers, and then made OKC look bad after they made the Clippers look bad. SA is the best team in the league... I'm clueless why more people don't understand this. You can see the sportsbooks understand this as they are favored for the series It's not about which team is better....it's about you not making any solid points. The more motivated team will win? Seriously? If you don't think that both teams are highly motivated then you are crazy. The spurs definitely are. The Heat? Lebron has been in Jordan's shadow his entire career...think he doesn't know that a 3peat will do alot for his legacy? Ray Allen's is towards the end of his career, Wade could be really close with his knee problems....the whole team knows that with the new NBA rules going into effect, they will not be able to keep this team together much longer. I am in no way saying they are more motivated than SA, but lets get real with saying they are not (as motivated.) And since when is only having to go to a game 6 in one series (against the #1 seed) and no game 7's considered struggling to get to the finals? Personally I think this is going to be a good series if Parker is healthy for SA and if Wade can stay healthy for Miami. If they played 10 games, I think they would go 5-5. Going to look for my spots for making wagers, but a 7 game zig-zag type finals would not surprise me in the least. Hopefully once the series starts we can have more threads with everyone trying to find good spots and fewer threads with people simply stating their feelings.
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begginerboy | 22 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Stewboy66: 8 f-ing runs in 9th. Unreal. Under is toast I took under early this morning....for some brain dead reason I got it confused and thought it was at 8...that 9th just made me shake my head in disgust....until I realized the under was 9 I don't get enough of those happy surprises lately with MLB
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searchwarrant | 8 |
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well done sir, well done ...thought for sure I had a split until all OKC starters hit the bench..then I knew my over was in trouble
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begginerboy | 65 |
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Definitely wasn't a "fix" but damn i started getting worried as soon as all OKC starters went to the bench. Their other guys are absolutely miserable to watch. And #$%@ a SA scrub had his hands on the ball...4 feet from the basket with no one to block him and looked around like he was lost and ends up passing the ball....would have made it 208...blah
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iBeatVegas | 24 |
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Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy: @LC, I can't wait either! @ tbone The smokescreen comment was in reference to not just Pop raising the white flag, in games 3 and 4, but also how that waving of the white flag continued in some of the post game interviews. Also, let me add this to my initial write-up (something I forgot to mention). Barkley and Kenny, after game 4, talked about how difficult it would be for OKC to win a series, after spotting the Spurs with a 2-0 lead (due to Ibaka's injury). These guys played in the league a long time and know the kind of mental (not just physical) stamina it takes to win a long series. Giving the Spurs two easy wins, and then having to climb out of that hole exacts a price (regardless of how easy the games in OKC looked). It is like spotting a team a 20 point lead in the first half, and then having to come all the way back to win. Sure it can happen, but more often than not, the team that is trailing falls short. I can see calling the post game interviews a "smokescreen." Definitely. Although it has been done in typical Spurs style. Rarely do you see them say that they lost the game, they almost always give the credit to the opposing team for beating them. Pop and crew always show a high level of class in that regard. Anyway, best of luck to you for the game and remainder of playoffs
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begginerboy | 65 |
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Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy: Gene, you sound like Manu after game 4. Sometimes you gotta lose the battle to win the war. Have you heard of a smokescreen? Don't believe everything you see. The Thunder are thinking the exact same thing you are right now, because Pop helped them think that. First, I love your write-up. I don't agree with 90% of it as I don't see anything more than speculation and conjecture in most of it, but it was still an excellent read. I'm from Houston, close enough to SA to have been watching Pop figure out ways to kick our tail for years. To say the man is a genious as a coach is without question. I do believe that he rested starters in game 4 for multiple reasons. One of those being the lesson he learned last year in game 4. If it is not looking good, lets not kill our older players before game 5 gets here. Also he knew that his starters were not getting it done just like they didn't get it done all regular season against OKC with Ibaka healthy. He was trying everything he could to get info on possible ways to beat them come game 5. The smokescreen comment you made is funny. Seriously, do you believe that any professional sports coach playing in a 7 game playoff series would want to lose games 3 and 4 to give another team momentum with only 2-3 games left in a series? The man is a genious, but come back down to Earth with your expectations of his strategies. As for the game, and this is just my thoughts for whatever they may be worth....with Ibaka healthy and in solid playing form, the SA prefered style of offense is in trouble just like it has been all year against Ibaka and OKC. For SA to win this game they will need to either win the 3 point battle or win the foul battle and get to the free throw line and make those shots count...as well as keep OKC away from the free throw line. All 4 games so far have been one sided victories but I think that will change tonight. I'm leaning towards SA winning, but with Ibaka in the mix I do not think this SA team has the ability to crush OKC. If they win it will be by low single digits. As a fan, I will be cheering on SA but as a gambler, I'm going to take the points.
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begginerboy | 65 |
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If Miami wins it all, then yes I would have to say they are the best "of our time." If; however, SA wins then they would get my vote. Miami has dominated the last 3 years but SA has been to 4 finals since 2003 with 3 championships to show for it. They have been in the hunt every year since the late 90's with mostly the same superstars they still have. A win this year would give them 5 finals in 12 years with 4 championships? Yea...I would have to put them ahead of Miami at that point.
Of course, Lebron has several more seasons in him. So win or lose this year, who knows how many they will get in the next 5 or so years. Would need to see another win this year or the body of work for the next several years before I would call them best of our generation. Just my opinion.
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dendogg55 | 10 |
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seriously...did I spell seen like scene? Damn these dos equis are good
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GeneCam27 | 41 |
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Quote Originally Posted by GeneCam27: Is it possible that these guys were just looking ahead to what they knew was inevitable for them? Seeing Miami in the ECF? They lolly gagged through round 1 and 2.... granted it took them 7 games in round 1. But they are injury free.... 100% healthy.... and i guess now you say they are "battle tested". Were we seeing a bigger sand bagging job than the Spurs for the first half of the season? Because they've showed up every single time that they needed to show up..... I really hate this feckin stupid team.... but I really just noticed this.... It would be smarter for them to sand bag a couple of games here and there to keep their focus up..... they sold me for a dope I bet the Wiz before the series started.... but they showed up every single game that was a MUST WIN back agaisnt the wall type of scenario. Something tells me these guys did this shiit intentionally to keep a mental edge and intensity..... yea it sounds far fetched.... but we will see come Sunday..... they still have home court. I really find it hard to believe these guys are gonna be chumps against a team they have the biggest hard on for out of anyone in the league..... I can't feckin stand the Pacers..... but seriously are they going to go down in like 5 or 6 games like a bunch of scrubs? I get what you are saying about sand bagging. We have definitely scene it from teams in the past, but I don't agree with thinking that Indiana "showed up" for the games that they had to. Most of their wins in the first 2 rounds had more to do with the other team losing than it did Indiana winning. Their defense was good, but not dominating and their offense was no where to be found for several of their wins. I remember watching game 3 against Washington and couldn't believe how many wide open mid-range shots and around the basket shots the wizards were missing. The one thing I will say is Indiana usually played well the last 3-4 minutes of the games they had the lead, but do you see a team like Miami making the same young player mistakes that Atlanta or Washington were making? Who knows which Idiana team shows up? They have talent on their team and play solid half court ball which is the way Miami likes to play, but I saw them doing just enough to not lose the games that they win. Didn't see enough of them actually going out there and winning them (hope this makes sense .) Indy had one of the best home records during the reg season, but have gone 3-4 so far this post season. Miami's road record was nothing to brag about reg season but has posted a 3-1 mark in first 2 rounds when playing away. I've never been one that goes with the "they will step up their game with the Heat in town and the fans will be going crazy." I would need to see it from Idiana before I even considered going with them. Who knows what will happen in the NBA, but my money is going on Miami. If I'm wrong it wouldn't be the first time, but they have played much better basketball lately IMO GLTU
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GeneCam27 | 41 |
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Quote Originally Posted by warcameagle56: Howard can't shoot a lick..Physical specimen but no heart. Did you even watch any of the games? His 64%+ from the free throw line all series might not seem high, but he was 80%+ for the series during the 4th quarter and considering he shot 55% for the season I would say he stepped up his game during the playoffs. He averaged something like 28 points a game for the series, 14 boards...only bad thing I can say about his play was the quality of his fouls. Most of them were not smart plays that could have, should have been avoided. Didn't come into play during game 6, but his foul trouble in 1 or 2 of the earlier games helped lead to blazer wins. All in all though, he was consistent and played a great series and showed class following the buzzer beating shot that cut his teams season short.
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jford0523 | 13 |
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Quote Originally Posted by Onigen: Astros lost by 1 point yesterday. How you Mark that as a win? See the "F5" after Astros? That means his wager was for the first 5 innings of the game. Which the Astros were up 3-2. Winner...
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KeyElement | 65 |
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Quote Originally Posted by crh11289: I'm thinking Bulls -4 would be a safer bet than playing the total. At least that is what I am seeing right now. If I had to choose right now, I would take the Bulls -4 and the under. The game may indeed go under...but your first post said you had them "capped" at 194 good luck with that for this game and every other game you wager
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crh11289 | 9 |
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Well the totals have all been between 178 and 183 for this series. The last game played in Chicago was 182 in regulation and only went over with OT. The last game played at Washington could easily have gone under, coming in at 187. I agree that the game will go over. This is just one of those series where Vegas knows that they could leave themselves exposed if they make the o/u too high with these two teams. My guess is they are getting more action on the over, but not enough to risk the flood of sharp money that would come in if they jack up the total. Just my thoughts on it. Hoping to take advantage of the situation and cash in my 5th over for this series, law of averages be damned
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crh11289 | 9 |
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replied to
I support Donald Sterling and hope he owns the NBA soon. Blacks are crybabies
in Penalty Box
wait...nevermind. You opened up our account just to make this post. Either you get off on creating drama or you are just an idiot. Either way, you don't have the balls to use your real account so I hope everyone will just pass this up as I plan to do from now on.
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BuckyBurnout | 61 |
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