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Whos laughing now bitches shoulda taken my mass post seriously and take Utep points and moneyline Bitches you aint shit!
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Zoot | 14 |
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I am college Gameday Bitches!
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Zoot | 14 |
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Consider the UTEP Miners getting between 16-17 on most books. Line opened at 14.5 and the public has been pounding Houston at a 91% clip in online sportsbooks provided by twominutewarning.com/betracker. I'll take the points.Houston is coming off back to back wins against the Big 12. Houston who is a very good team btw and I like Keenum a lot, but they are definately riding high at this point and are oiled up for a subpar performance. They have been overachieving and are playing a sandwhich game in which they take on the Miners. As Houston has an SEC opponent the following week in Miss St. Not to mention college kids are the easiest to mess with their heads. As Kayne West would say "Its crazy how you can go from being Joe Blow, To everybody on your dick, no person" Which makes it the perfect opportunity to make a play against them. While everybody is buying Houston I like to take the team everybody is selling. UTEP meanwhile played Houston last year with an 18 point spread and lost the game 42-35. I look for struggling QB Trevor Vittatoe to get back on track this week and put up a similar 4 TD performance he had last year against the Cougars. To add to the strength of this play UTEP is at home and just got crushed by Texas last week in a televised game. I look for the Miners to be very focused coming into this game as this is probably perceived as their biggest game of the year. They are given an opportunity to beat a ranked opponent at home, it doesn't get much better than that if your a Miner! 9* Top play Take the Miners. |
target_9 | 45 |
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Consider the UTEP Miners getting between 16-17 on most books. Line opened at 14.5 and the public has been pounding Houston at a 91% clip in online sportsbooks provided by twominutewarning.com/betracker. I'll take the points.Houston is coming off back to back wins against the Big 12. Houston who is a very good team btw and I like Keenum a lot, but they are definately riding high at this point and are oiled up for a subpar performance. They have been overachieving and are playing a sandwhich game in which they take on the Miners. As Houston has an SEC opponent the following week in Miss St. Not to mention college kids are the easiest to mess with their heads. As Kayne West would say "Its crazy how you can go from being Joe Blow, To everybody on your dick, no person" Which makes it the perfect opportunity to make a play against them. While everybody is buying Houston I like to take the team everybody is selling. UTEP meanwhile played Houston last year with an 18 point spread and lost the game 42-35. I look for struggling QB Trevor Vittatoe to get back on track this week and put up a similar 4 TD performance he had last year against the Cougars. To add to the strength of this play UTEP is at home and just got crushed by Texas last week in a televised game. I look for the Miners to be very focused coming into this game as this is probably perceived as their biggest game of the year. They are given an opportunity to beat a ranked opponent at home, it doesn't get much better than that if your a Miner! 9* Top play Take the Miners. |
Zoot | 14 |
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Consider the UTEP Miners getting between 16-17 on most books. Line opened at 14.5 and the public has been pounding Houston at a 91% clip in online sportsbooks provided by twominutewarning.com/betracker. I'll take the points.Houston is coming off back to back wins against the Big 12. Houston who is a very good team btw and I like Keenum a lot, but they are definately riding high at this point and are oiled up for a subpar performance. They have been overachieving and are playing a sandwhich game in which they take on the Miners. As Houston has an SEC opponent the following week in Miss St. Not to mention college kids are the easiest to mess with their heads. As Kayne West would say "Its crazy how you can go from being Joe Blow, To everybody on your dick, no person" Which makes it the perfect opportunity to make a play against them. While everybody is buying Houston I like to take the team everybody is selling. UTEP meanwhile played Houston last year with an 18 point spread and lost the game 42-35. I look for struggling QB Trevor Vittatoe to get back on track this week and put up a similar 4 TD performance he had last year against the Cougars. To add to the strength of this play UTEP is at home and just got crushed by Texas last week in a televised game. I look for the Miners to be very focused coming into this game as this is probably perceived as their biggest game of the year. They are given an opportunity to beat a ranked opponent at home, it doesn't get much better than that if your a Miner! 9* Top play Take the Miners.
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Jim_Tressel | 245 |
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All you are doing is arguing the definition of trap game which is a waste of time in the first place. You being annoyed with people talking about trap games is like me being annoyed with you. It is pointless and will never go anywhere because all you are arguing is that a trap game means vegas is trying to get over on the public by setting a spread a certian way. However, vegas does not need to set any traps for the public as the public creates them for themselves as they are often wrong. Which has been the case of betting on or against florida st the past two weeks. When I talk about a trap game I am speaking of a game that a team is set up for a letdown and is therefore a trap for them to lose. It just so happens that many times there are these so called trap games for a team the cattle are riding them hard all the way to the slaughter house! And I do not think I am outsmarting vegas in any way. I put my money on vegas bud as I take action. I watch the cattle get lucky some weeks as in the case of the Bears in the NFL this week and get slaughtered other weeks which hopefully will the the case this Sunday. And for you to say its a 50/50 proposition for either team to cover Florida -1 vs Idaho St diminshes any credentials you have. Which after looking at your handicapping history isn't much experience.
Quote Originally Posted by jkochvar:
440 primetime- I think you are the one missing the point. I never said Vegas always succeeds in getting 50% of the money on each side, in fact, they rarely do. Their INTENTION is to do this because it minimizes their exposure to a loss! Period. They are banking on the only true thing they can rely on, and that is statistics. And though you reference the Florida St. example, it does you no justice in proving your point. The line in the FSU/BYU game, as well as the USF matchup the following week was intended to do just as I've consistently stated- get equal attention from bettors on both the favorite and the underdog. You are correct about emotional factors, previous weeks performances, etc. factoring into the line. There are many other things considered in developing a line, including talent, home-field, injuris, track records, weather, etc, etc....and because bettors analyze games from different angles, they all tend to arrive at the same conclusions for many different reasons. This results in many people liking one side, and many liking the other. As I've repeatedly said, it's all a game of statistics....they have to create a line that will garner as equal action as possible, because they only have a few points either way to make adjustments once money is placed on either side. And for the record, I never got high on FSU's win over BYU, nor did I discount USF in last week's game. Your point was not proven and made no sense. Any wise bettor, or bookie for that matter, will tell you the objective is simple: Split the exposure down the middle when possible, and reap the 10% juice. You are obviously one of the guys who thinks they outsmart Vegas from time to time.
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Jim_Tressel | 245 |
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Jim well done on the South Florida Game as everyone was selling South Florida and buying and the inflated Florida St team that was off a big primetime win over BYU. Jkochvar you couldn't be more wrong! First of all you complete the trap game argument by saying vegas tries to set the line so action is 50/50 on each side. However you fail to realize that not every game is going to have 50/50 action on each side! As in many cases every week the public is heavy on one side! Now a trap game would be when the public is heavily favoring a team that is off a high profile win and the line is inflated to encourage action on the other side. Which is usually where the sharps end up. Which has been the case with Florida St in Back to back weeks. When Florida St was playing BYU they should have been in fact 7.5 favorites and not dawgs as they rolled on BYU. But because guys like yourself try to predict the game going of perception of prior games which often never works! BYU was in fact the favorite because of the win over Oklahoma. Then they following week a much more hungry S Florida team playing in its Super Bowl... playing against a team that did not recruit them as players... dominated a Florida St team that was 14 point favorites. Therefore a trap game is a game in which the line is set with inflated value because of public perception along with other factors also give a team an edge such as emotional angles which often rule in cfb. No doubt teams with less talent win every week and that is why fools like yourself consistently lose in CFB. Quote Originally Posted by jkochvar:
You must be an inexperienced gambler to believe "trap" games exist, coach. To say one side is a trap is to say the other side is the "smart" play, the lock, or the guarantee.
No matter how many times you break it down for the clueless ones, you still don't get it. The set lines are merely the sportsbooks' attempt to get as much money as possible on BOTH sides. Nobody, not even Vegas can predict the true outcome of a game. The lines are strictly a number in which bettors have a 50/50 chance of landing on either side, regardless of the number, and the talent of each team in the matchup. If you posted Florida as a 1 point favorite against Idaho St., you'd still have a 50% chance of hitting either side. Running a sportsbook, or any casino game is simply using statistics in your favor for profit.
If it was so easy to identify a "trap" situation, then you'd be throwing your bankroll on the other side of the so-called trap, and reaping the benefits at an overwhelming rate. In examining your thread, I still see no sides in which you clearly identify as the "correct" side to be on, nor do you use consistent reasoning as to why a game is a "trap." This is a tired and exhausted theory that clueless gamblers discuss when they think they have Vegas figured out.
You post great stuff, coach, I just wish you'd concentrate on contributing more game discussions rather than what side of a 50/50 gamble is the one to be weary of. No disrespect whatsoever, I just think there is way too much of this "trap" garbage on Covers, and it misleads people into thinking Vegas is playing mind games, or keeping secrets from them.
Like I said, focus more on the football discussion rather than how Vegas is trying to lure you to one side. If they want your money on a particular side, they'll adjust the line in order to do so.
GL fellas |
Jim_Tressel | 245 |
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Jim well done on the South Florida Game as everyone was selling South Florida and buying and the inflated Florida St team that was off a big primetime win over BYU. Jkochvar you couldn't be more wrong! First of all you complete the trap game argument by saying vegas tries to set the line so action is 50/50 on each side. However you fail to realize that not every game is going to have 50/50 action on each side! As in many cases every week the public is heavy on one side! Now a trap game would be when the public is heavily favoring a team that is off a high profile win and the line is inflated to encourage action on the other side. Which is usually where the sharps end up. Which has been the case with Florida St in Back to back weeks. When Florida St was playing BYU they should have been in fact 7.5 favorites and not dawgs as they rolled on BYU. But because guys like yourself try to predict the game going of perception of prior games which often never works! BYU was in fact the favorite because of the win over Oklahoma. Then they following week a much more hungry S Florida team playing in its Super Bowl... playing against a team that did not recruit them as players... dominated a Florida St team that was 14 point favorites. Therefore a trap game is a game in which the line is set with inflated value because of public perception along with other factors also give a team an edge such as emotional angles which often rule in cfb. No doubt teams with less talent win every week and that is why fools like yourself consistently lose in CFB. Quote Originally Posted by jkochvar:
You must be an inexperienced gambler to believe "trap" games exist, coach. To say one side is a trap is to say the other side is the "smart" play, the lock, or the guarantee.
No matter how many times you break it down for the clueless ones, you still don't get it. The set lines are merely the sportsbooks' attempt to get as much money as possible on BOTH sides. Nobody, not even Vegas can predict the true outcome of a game. The lines are strictly a number in which bettors have a 50/50 chance of landing on either side, regardless of the number, and the talent of each team in the matchup. If you posted Florida as a 1 point favorite against Idaho St., you'd still have a 50% chance of hitting either side. Running a sportsbook, or any casino game is simply using statistics in your favor for profit.
If it was so easy to identify a "trap" situation, then you'd be throwing your bankroll on the other side of the so-called trap, and reaping the benefits at an overwhelming rate. In examining your thread, I still see no sides in which you clearly identify as the "correct" side to be on, nor do you use consistent reasoning as to why a game is a "trap." This is a tired and exhausted theory that clueless gamblers discuss when they think they have Vegas figured out.
You post great stuff, coach, I just wish you'd concentrate on contributing more game discussions rather than what side of a 50/50 gamble is the one to be weary of. No disrespect whatsoever, I just think there is way too much of this "trap" garbage on Covers, and it misleads people into thinking Vegas is playing mind games, or keeping secrets from them.
Like I said, focus more on the football discussion rather than how Vegas is trying to lure you to one side. If they want your money on a particular side, they'll adjust the line in order to do so.
GL fellas |
Jim_Tressel | 245 |
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Sheed or Hamilton are our best fits. Unfortunately, it is a division rival, so that scenario is probably unlikely. I would love Bosh for a Pau Gasol giveaway type move, but once again, probably won't happen. The teams chemistry is too good right now.. Daddy, who is the marketing manager you know? I know for a fact that the guys in the marketing and sales department only get their news from ESPN or somewhere like here...
And to anyone saying Z is garbage is crazy off, good rebounder and can hit deep jumpers.. Amare would be the worst fit in Cleveland history and we would pretty much just call the Amare press conference the LeBron James to New York pre-party
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browndog | 38 |
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