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Cuevas makes a return to his favoured clay surface as a heavy favourite against Mayer at Hamburg. Cuevas prefers to play off the base line and wins most of his points from his heavy kick serve and his one handed backhand. He's first serve has been accurate of late and has a high percentage of 1st serve winners but he consistently makes a lot of unforced errors. He should win this match but not as easily as the odds reflect. Mayer has an unorthodox style of play that seems to work for him. Although being taller than Cuevas by 4 inches, his serve and groundstrokes are not as powerful as Cuevas but he is extremely consistent with a higher 1st serve percentage and far less unforced errors. He offsets this lack of power with a lot of variations that include the slice, drop shots, chip and charge. Expect to see a lot of serve and volley which will catch Cuevas off guard. These variations and his fast movement around the court will take some getting used to by Cuevas which is why he has only won one set out of five against the German. Mayer has beaten some big names recently, albeit on grass, to win his 2nd title at Halle. The home crowd was an advantage at Halle and I expect the same at Hamburg. Mayer should be ready for this match whereas Cuevas might be still reeling over his Wimbledon first round knockout and his doubles controversy where he was fined for refusing to play. It might take him some time to figure out Mayer and adjust before winning the match which is why I believe there is significant value in Mayer winning the 1st set at $2.75.
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beatdabooks | 1 |
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Number one rule of gambling is leave your emotions at the door. Its taken me a few years to control my emotions when wagering but I now accept my losses just as I accept the wins. I have no favourite players or teams, that just clouds my judgment. That being said there are players/teams that I dislike and refuse to wager on and normally Monfils is one of those players. At the start of this month I went against my better judgment and placed three seperate wagers that involved Monfils, all three were losses. I am comfortable with those decisions and would make the same assessment if they were all to be replayed. Tomorrow win or lose I will be making my last wager involving Monfils and also throwing out my regimented percentage betting and I am going to chase those three losses by betting against Monfils. I honestly thought that Tsonga would be there with Ljubicic and prematurely started to cap the final with Tsonga and I had Ljubicic winning. The players have changed but my outcome hasnt. Ultimately for me it comes down to the players form in previous matches on the court/tournament their playing but here are few other factors thrown in. Ljubicic was last years winner and also won the title back in 2001(always a good motivator). The Croatian leads 5-2 in the head to head, winning all four meetings on hard court. Although I'm discounting the head to heads in this case because their last encounter in 2009 Shanghai Monfils was a heavy favourite but retired with a back problem at 6-2 3-0. Monfils back injury clearly was a problem right from the start. His whole game is based around his quick movement especially in defense and he could hardly move and had no power in his shots or his serve, he was solely relying on spin because of the lack of power. The other three hard court matches dated back to 2006 & 2005 when Ljubicic was in his prime, ranked in the top ten and Monfils wasnt beating anyone in the top ten and ranked around 30. This year Ljubicic has won 58% of the games against common players and Monfils has won 42%. On recent form I favour Ljubicic. The Croat is on fire at the moment and can beat the best of them when he's firing. He is playing some of the same tennis that saw him win the Indian Wells title in March where he beat top ten players like Nadal, Roddick, Djokovic. Not too many people can beat that line up. He then went on a shocker run for four months straight where he only won one game out of nine. But that all changed at the beginning of this month when he beat top ten players Youzhny and Murray although Murray hadnt played too much since the US Open. His first serve is his major weapon firing in 42 aces in his last two matches and his forehand is a cracker also. In comparison Monfils is also coming into form recently, in fact most people in the ATP would kill for his 43 wins and 19 losses this year but the only top ten player he has beaten this year was Roddick who had only just returned to the circuit after two months off and is in terrible form and is currently not worthy of his ranking. Roddick had matchpoint in that game and choked as per usual and yes that was one of the matches I had money on. Sure he just beat Tsonga in the last match, but again Tsonga had three months off recovering from a knee injury and only had his first game this month and yes that was the other match I had money on. Ljubicic beat Tsonga who was in good form easily in two sets this year in February at Dubai. Apart from the out of form Roddick and Tsonga, Monfils has only beaten two other players this year in the top 30 being Ferrer and Isner and Isner took the first set and yes I actually had Monfils to win first set. Isner's whole game is his serve take away that and I doubt he could win a challenger match in womens tennis. If Monfils is able to control his returns on Ljubicic's serve and keep it away from Ljub's forehand he might be able to run him around the court like he did with Isner but if Ljub hits his groundstrokes through Monfils and avoids rallies I think he is a strong chance. Cant believe Ljubicic is paying $2.50 to $2.60 ( +150 to +160 american) might take the safer option and take the line +3 games for the $1.90 or a first set win at $2.25 but I honestly think Ljub can win this outright.
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beatdabooks | 3 |
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Damn I was hoping to avoid a tiebreaker. Tsonga should have broke him when he had a chance. Tsonga needs to win this first set if hes a chance. |
Delpo | 4 |
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GL Tsonga knows all Monfils moves and should win this one but I would off thought Tsonga's price would have been a lot shorter and whats even more strange is the price hasnt changed too much from the opening odds. I guess the books and the public are still worried about Tsongas time off with his knee injury. Myself on the other hand was waiting for these two match up here and have made this my largest wager this week. I the will be looking forward to the Tsonga v Ljubicic final where I expect another even pricing and Tsonga to take the title in a tight one. |
Delpo | 4 |
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Almagro was a long shot and he had his chances but for some reason he was looking very anxious whilst serving at 40-15 and up 4-3 in the second and those two double faults just broke his spirit even though it was still 4 all. Very rarely do you see Almagro with that expression of defeat. Lucky betfair still beleived he could win and I got decent odds on Melzer to win the second. Hate hedging and very rarely do it but $1.70 for Melzer to win the second was a too good to refuse, still hurts to loss this one though. Anyway thats in the past and Ljub just needs to take this second set. He has had 4 break point opportunities to wrap this up but keeps letting Montannes off the hook. You cant do that with this slippery sucker. I have seen him come back many times from match point to win a match. Unusual for Ljub to not convert but I still have faith in the bald one to finish this off in two. Hope your -2.5 comes through. Even if Ljub loses the second I think you will be fine. I probably should have got on the -2.5 myself in hindsight. Hopefully we both hit. Are you also on the Tsonga match? |
beatdabooks | 13 |
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Melzer back on track and I hate calling a game before its over but I'm hedging with Melzer to win the second set with Betfair at 1.70. |
beatdabooks | 13 |
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Melzer back in the game. Had enough of watching this game and switching over to Ljub to win in two and under 23.5.
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beatdabooks | 13 |
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Almagro in trouble after two double faults. Unusual especially when his first serve percentage has been brilliant. |
beatdabooks | 13 |
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Yeah like I said Almagro got broken in the first set in his last two matches but comes back. Almagro dropping the first set didnt bother me too much because he only gets better as the match goes on and Melzer is the opposite. The longer the match the more chance he has of his usual lapses. Its like two different palyers out there sometimes with Melzer. Almagro will take this to the third set and hopefully Melzer has another hissy fit. Melzer is an awesome player and has the talent but he just needs to get his head right and get over past points. All that aside I hope he chokes this one. |
beatdabooks | 13 |
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Melzer gets broken because of his usual brain implosion. Almagro will take advantage of Melzers brain farts and hopefully takes this to the third. |
beatdabooks | 13 |
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Almagro gets broken. In the last two matches he broke back the next game but cant see that happening against Melzer. |
beatdabooks | 13 |
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Almagro comfortabbly holding the first three games and was tested in the last. His first serve is on fire, the best its been in this tourny. Melzer also holding comfortablly although his first serve is not as accurate. Not sure why Almagro is not attacking his 2nd serve. I fancy Almagro to take the first set if this gets to a tiebreaker. |
beatdabooks | 13 |
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I usually only wager on one or two games on any given day, but I see value in the under 23.5 games in Ljub vs Montannes match shortly. Ljub must have been drinking from the fountain of youth because two months ago he couldnt win a challenger game and now he is on fire and playing some of his greatest tennis. Montannes on the other hand is lucky to be here. He really should have lost the last two games, I actually had money on him to win against Llodra and Davy because he was a heavy dog and he is always a threat but I was never comfortable watching his last two matches because he was less than ordinary. Dont know how Llodra lost that and Davy just choked as per usual or he tanked it on purpose. Ljub should win this one comfortablly in two so the under it is. |
beatdabooks | 13 |
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Melzer is a great player and its usually when he plays top 10 players when you see him pull out his best, eg beating nadal in shanghai and then losing to monaco (nothing against monaco). 9 times out of ten if he is the underdog I will back him but when he is a clear favourite and he is not playing the likes of fed & nadal the I will fade him. I went against this logic in Tokyo and put a large wager on him against Troiki. I should have known better. Now Almagro has been playing awful Tennis here in Vienna giving up breaks in the first set in both matches against players that he would usually flog, so I am hesitant especially when Melzer is the defending champ so he does have something to play for. But I expect a tiebreakers here and when thats on the cards I will always go the dog and Almagro on his day can beat anyone. Also on the over as I expect a three setter. No way Melzer should be paying this little. Also playing Tsonga to beat Monfils later on tonight in another close one. Looking at the over there as well. Cheers and good luck everyone
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beatdabooks | 13 |
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Good win for a dog |
sinnet11 | 12 |
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Starace won 6 to 1
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sinnet11 | 12 |
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Starace looking the goods.
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sinnet11 | 12 |
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Gaba should be the dog IMO. Starace should win this one. |
sinnet11 | 12 |
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Tsonga has been off since Wimbledon (3 months) with a knee injury and has played in one competitive match which was last week against Nieminen where he lost. He did mention post match that the knee did not give him an problems throughout the match.
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beatdabooks | 52 |
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Tsonga needs a couple more matches under his belt before I will consider him a safe bet. Tsonga at his best has problems facing lefties and hopefully his backhand is as bad as it looked against Nieminen (another lefty). Lopez' serve has looked great recently but the slower hard courts at Shaghai wont do him any favours. He just needs to keep the ball in play preferablly to Tsonga's backhand and watch the frenchmans unforced errors rack up. Lopez to win. |
beatdabooks | 52 |
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