2sad2say

Member Since:September 2005
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2sad2say
NFL Betting > Should we place confidence in SDQL confidence intervals? > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by DogbiteWilliams:
I recently began working with the Sports Database at Killer Sports.  I now have a basic understanding of the SDQL and I can manipulate the query field to test parameters the large query matrix does not provide.

I am a dogbite so I don't like betting favorites, but my hypothesis was that powerhouse GB, after a 14-point loss at home as a solid favorite, would be due for a bounce.  I ran this query:

p:site = home and site = home and p:line <= -3 and line <= -6 and line >= -8.5 and p:points + 14 <= po:points and (2000 , 1) <= (season , week)

Results:

SU: 5-3-0 (1.88, 62.5%)
ATS: 1-7-0 (-5.50, 12.5%)
OU: 5-3-0 (7.12, 62.5%)

How the hell can the OU results claim a CI of 7.12 when it's just one game over .500 (4-4)?  I am no statistician, but the sample size is too small to generate any confidence in my limited brain.  I have no opinion on the total, but it does make me question the validity of the Sports Database and SDQL query results.

I expanded the line parameters and got an ATS result of 9-19 (-3.59, 32.1%), so I must admit that my hypothesis was bullshxt.
Faced with that result, I would only bet CHI despite my initial thoughts.

I would appreciate informed opinions of handicappers who have been working with this for several years.  TIA.

I like that ...go with your gut feeling...best system going !!


2sad2say
NFL Betting > The Green Bay "side", DROPPED!!!??? > View Post

QUOTE Originally Posted by lajohn:
...from -9, to -7.5
WHY???
...expected to go the OTHER WAY..., IF anything!!!

Not when the sharps weigh in at +9.5 big time....


2sad2say
NFL Betting > If Steelers lose I'm convinced nfl is riggedy rigged > View Post
[Quote: Originally Posted by Wizerguy]


Some people don't want to do their homework.



Pitt: 1-8 ATS off 3+ ATS wins

1-11 as fav in 1st of BB road games. ie Balt/Jack...and now Jets now 1-12.. 1-7 as non div RF's >3pts. 1-4 ATS before a bye week. 1-11 away vs  non div opp with revenge....beat Jets 19-6 last year. 2-10 ATS on rd after scoring 30> pts in previous game.



I could go on and on 

[


....additionally every now & again one is given pause to a situation that involves a Rooney- owned team...look up how he made his  $$$$....just a thought that also fits your "homework" ethic....and tell me something doesn't smell !!


2sad2say
NFL Betting > Confirmed teams resting starters > View Post
..think the Texans have been "resting" for a while now.... 

2sad2say
NFL Betting > DALLAS COWBOYS GOING TO THE SUPERBOWL > View Post
You are 100% correct.....as spectators !!

2sad2say
NFL Betting > Bet the COLTS-3 BIG, heres why... > View Post
When concensus over 70 % go other way...Colts at 77%. so going other way...good luck with yr stats...someone will win !

2sad2say
NFL Betting > NFL 21-6 ytd on a roll > View Post

[Quote: Originally Posted by Bet118] When will you be posting your pics I am very interested in what you come up with. Best of luck 


....around 4:30pm Sunday...lol


2sad2say
NFL Betting > NFL_Sharp Week 5 Program Picks, Projections, and Rankings > View Post
[Quote: Originally Posted by parlayinn]
Please explain the methodology for your overall rankings.  These are interesting:



hou #1

jets #3

sea #6

den #9

kc #19

chi #25

mia #26

atl #27

Interesting how everyone likes Houston yet their QB...well we all know how that worked out !! 


 


2sad2say
NFL Betting > TAKE MANNING AND THE BRONCOS AND GO TO BED !!! > View Post
It's same old story....public loves the Manning boys and the Books couldn't be happier...by the way Raiders can play some defense...good luck with yours....

2sad2say
NFL Betting > WHO'S WITH ME ON AN EAGLES BLOWOUT WIN TONIGHT !!!! > View Post
Philly needs to find some defense first....KC/Philly both good on scoring but defense wins more games...imo of course....gl with yours

2sad2say
NFL Betting > Eastside Bangers Week 1 Report > View Post
Nice start to the season...any thoughts on some early lines?

2sad2say
NFL Betting > PLAY OF MY LIFE (-110) SHOWS THE USELESS SPENDING IN THE UNITED STATES BUT ITS A WINNER SO WHATEVER > View Post

[Quote: Originally Posted by JSCapper12] I HOPE MY BOOK CAN ATLEAST DONATE SOME OF MY 11,000 TO TIM TEBOWS FAVORITE CHARITY 


...tuff beat....remember when everyone on a team..tred lightly !


 


2sad2say
NFL Betting > Believe Rogers concussed...... > View Post
..by that hit in the Bears game....and is fragile. My take the Steelers get to him early and ring his bell just enough to affect his passing efficiency and ends GBay  run.

2sad2say
NFL Betting > The Super Bowl > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by dopeman:
That was quick BigE!! lol


This is going to be one heck of a superbowl.  

......


.....nope.....first hard sack of Rodgers he will be dizzy and done....Steelers in a cake walk ....anticipation usually better than the game itself....who you got for the coin toss ?


2sad2say
NFL Betting > Billy Walters on 60 Minutes Sunday Night.... > View Post

QUOTE Originally Posted by frank the tank:
Billy Walters


...thanks frank......loved the wall street shot at the end...so true.


2sad2say
NFL Betting > Divisional Week Picks > View Post

QUOTE Originally Posted by hey144:
I love how you talk smack, when you lose 8 units last weet.... really 8.8 units with juice, and win 7.9 units this week, and consider yourself a winner.  Actually, for you to be down that little is a great accomplishment.  Not to mention how you brag about your regular season record, when you never take into account the juice, nor the extra juice for all the hooks you bought.  You are nothing but amateur, that has had a couple lucky weeks.  This just goes to prove the theory, that someone blindfolded can throw darts at a board to pick a team, and do better than an expert.  Good job monkey.  I'm sure you'll lose the $10 per unit you bet soon enough.


....what a classy contribution...nice way to start your rep !day....................


2sad2say
NFL Betting > Ravens +3.5 next week > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by billsneedhelp:
I'll never forget forget when I had the ravens last time they played pitt and they were up looking like they were gonna win & should have,  then on a pass play troy blitzes and Flacco just sits in the pocket, doesnt see him at all coming at troy blasts him and knocks the ball loose pitts score a td and takes the game.


I couldn't believe Flacco didnt see him in his peripherial vision troy came form the left side and flacco wasnt even looking to the right he was looking straight ahead. How could a qb have such tunnel vision?



How did he not see that big hair coming at him? 


...because the game was predetermined !.....watch this w/end and spot the 'turn"..........


2sad2say
NFL Betting > THE MOST HATED TEAM IN THE NFL > View Post

QUOTE Originally Posted by 46989:
It's really fun how the last 2 years have played out. I really think the Jets are. All over this website there are nothing but threads about the Jets and their fans. If you go on the cbssportline community the majority of threads are about the Jets also. Why you ask? I think it is because of the coach obviously. Here is a football team and a frachise that hasn't been relevant at all in the NFL for the last 60 years. I mean geez the Cowboys and Jets entered at pretty much the same time and the numbers are staggering. 8 Superbowls for the Cowboys winning 5 of them. 30 playoff apperences, tons of championship apperances. Hall of fame players and coaches, 21 straight winning seasons ect ect ect. The Jets have done what. I think they have 7 winning seasons in 50 years or something. They usually never win the division because the Patriots are around. The funny thing is that when they lose they are as quiet as a church mouse. They were nowhere to be found after that beating a couple weeks ago (which by the way was the single biggest and most dominating beating in the NFL this season) Now all of a sudden they are back to their antics one again because they have taken on the attitude of their fat belly coach. You can never get an honest answer from a Jets fan after a win or a loss. They just always say "we are the best". They bragged to no end after they beat the Steelers and then went quiet the next week after they lost to the Bears. My one friend was so quiet because during the game while they were losing they didn't even know if they were going to get into the playoffs yet. Quiet as a church mouse. The fans are the worst. Totally classless. The majority of the Jets fans on this board hasn't seen shit in their lifetime. How can you actually talk smack to a Patriot fan when you wish every dying day that you wish your franchise had what they had and you have seen in a Patriot fans lifetime. How can you actually talk smack to a Steeler fan when they have all the rings. Respect should be given. The funny part is even if the Jets do win on Sunday then what. They are right back to where they were last season. Superbowl or Bust for the Jets this year. If they don't win the whole thing they will be the biggest BUST of the NFL SEASON PERIOD!!! Their were Cowboy and Viking fans saying in the begining that they would win it but that was more media driven because of all the starpower and the Superbowl was in Dallas ect ect. The Jets have the biggest bullseye on their backs. They better come through or you Jet fans should never be allowed to post anything ever again. Shame if you do. Losers


.......ahhh who you kidding ....it isn't the Jets per se ...is the the NeuYawkers that spew....Giant fans are classier....but much quieter this time of year(lately).


2sad2say
NFL Betting > Undefeated NFL trend in play this Sunday > View Post

QUOTE Originally Posted by GoldenTaint:
i know there is no such thing as a lock when it comes to betting but i'm for sure riding this trend from here on out. congrats to those who bet cinci. i'm glad this information helped out some people. make sure you save this somewhere on your computers and next year the trend can continue. 


...great info...thanks for the heads up.


2sad2say
NFL Betting > SBG GLOBAL -Under Review By Lou. > View Post
....all bets with the Min/Phil game were cancellled when the game was not played as scheduled........period....long time house rule.

2sad2say
NFL Betting > Anybody got any good reasons why Seattle can't beat Kansas City at home? > View Post

QUOTE Originally Posted by bets2win:
Seattle +2.5 is my BIGGEST Play of the Week!!! Love em @ Home!!!


....but they've quit for the year ?...so has Cincy....


 


2sad2say
NFL Betting > Eagle's Revenge > View Post
.....yeah welcome to the NFL...by the way that new contract has guaranteed "performance" terms over the 5 year period .....he can be gone at end of the year for 3.5...details coming out today as to specifics.

2sad2say
NFL Betting > ILLMoney - $$$Parlay$$$ > View Post
....browns will surprise the jets....jets....jets....especially at home

2sad2say
NFL Betting > NFL is considering switching to flag football > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by jmw59:

I watched Jack Tatum take people's heads off when I was a kid in the 60's.


We seem a long way from Darrell Stingly lying his ass on the rug in Foxboro.



...bound to happen soon though...bigger,faster, and stronger players today....just a matter of time.....then what ?......


2sad2say
Covers Help > How bringing respect & decorum back to this site... > View Post
...any chance of cleaning up the "act" that just putrifies the the basis of this forum.....some modicum of respect & less garbage about personal attacks....this is just a thought from a weary fan who used to enjoy your site. 

2sad2say
NFL Betting > NFL is considering switching to flag football > View Post

QUOTE Originally Posted by legwand:
If you don't like my post you can suck on my big balls.


....no wonder this site has degenerated over time...sadly class has disappeared with  respect......HEY MONITOR....remember why you set up this site....why not exercise your perogative and dump the trash....just a thought....


 


2sad2say
NFL Betting > Dallas Cowboys Fire Wade Phillips; Jason Garret New Coach > View Post

QUOTE Originally Posted by superbeets:
it's true....  As a long time season ticket holder......im happy


...at the end of the day it's the overpaid, over-hyped , so called best talented team that continues not to show up.....fire all the coaches...they don't play the game and neither do most of this players.....time for performance contracts Jerry.....wtf you 're in Texas....why not ??.....hire some gunslingers....can't see how it could lose you more money ?....


2sad2say
NFL Betting > Detroit Lions favored this weekend against the Skins??? > View Post
......Grossman appears on holloween...now that is scary stuff .....thanks coach Shanahan....should read hahahahah....

2sad2say
NFL Betting > Week 9 presents a few special gifts > View Post
Dallas +9 at Green Bay.......

2sad2say
MLB Betting > Why wasn't the total mentioned (Game 3 MLB) last night...? > View Post
QUOTE Originally Posted by Slovak:

this thread should be archived right next to the one with the guy who thinks he fucked his sister.



....


...how about the wag who asked about getting girlfriend pregnant by anal penetration......?

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