Therizz's NHL Opening Game Fav 2013-14

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Therizz's NHL Opening Game Fav 2013-14
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 10/2/2013 2:01:18 PM

Let's start a new thread for the new year. I will include the double dip plays as well. The double dip is not part of Therizz's system, it is something I tracked last year. Double dips went 26-2 last year (26-1 if I used the filter of only double dipping on teams that qualify for the regular system plays)

A 20-8

B 4-4

C 2-2

Possible plays for Thursday are Boston (3), Pitts (3), San Jose (3), STL (5). I'm expecting all but SJ to qualify.

ERBATIZ PM ERBATIZ
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Posted: 10/2/2013 3:58:27 PM
Bart_ PM Bart_
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Posted: 10/2/2013 4:47:52 PM
Thanks Dan. 

How are you playing it? Labby line? 
Are you double dipping too? 
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 10/2/2013 6:33:25 PM

Bart, I will be using an aggresive labby as described by Therizz in last year's thread on post 188.

from that post - I run an aggressive labby for this which works nicely as there are limited plays going on at any one time. If the lines get to heavy I just split the numbers.

Make a separate line for each Game level A, B, and C bets

50-50
50-50
50-50

Say I play 150 to win 100 on a Game 1. If it loses I split the amount and split it on that line and the one below

50-125
50-125
50-50

So my next A bet I play to win 175 as well as my B bet. This spreads the burden of recovering loses through all levels of games. If we go on a losing streak and the numbers get too big I will just split the bigger number. I try to do that very rarely. The biggest key is to make sure your original base bet is comfortable for your bankroll (I generally don't set it at more than 2-3% of my bankroll)

voodoopulling PM voodoopulling
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Posted: 10/2/2013 7:00:18 PM
Just to clarify are we using -130 or -145 for a play to qualify?
Posted using a mobile device.
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 10/2/2013 7:10:53 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by voodoopulling:

Just to clarify are we using -130 or -145 for a play to qualify?

We used -130 last year, so I'll use that again.

SweetDickWormy PM SweetDickWormy
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Posted: 10/2/2013 11:05:22 PM
  Thank you Sir!  Glad you had a change of heart.  Looking forward to great season of hockey!
dallasm PM dallasm
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Posted: 10/3/2013 2:54:05 AM
 
dallasm PM dallasm
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Posted: 10/3/2013 3:00:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Let's start a new thread for the new year. I will include the double dip plays as well. The double dip is not part of Therizz's system, it is something I tracked last year. Double dips went 26-2 last year (26-1 if I used the filter of only double dipping on teams that qualify for the regular system plays)

A 20-8

B 4-4

C 2-2

Possible plays for Thursday are Boston (3), Pitts (3), San Jose (3), STL (5). I'm expecting all but SJ to qualify.


Dan, what are the parenthesis next to the teams? IE Boston (3)
bruin95 PM bruin95
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Posted: 10/3/2013 3:34:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dallasm:


Dan, what are the parenthesis next to the teams? IE Boston (3)

 

How many games in a row at home.

rivermonsterz PM rivermonsterz
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Posted: 10/3/2013 5:04:10 AM
Not sure if I am getting this line from the correct place, but the covers line is posted at -130 for San Jose.  
http://www.covers.com/odds/hockey/nhl-odds.aspx
Is that the opening line or the live line?
rivermonsterz PM rivermonsterz
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Posted: 10/3/2013 5:21:36 AM
And does this mean San Jose qualify, or not, because I do see them at -125 as well.
voodoopulling PM voodoopulling
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Posted: 10/3/2013 8:36:29 AM
Just adding spreadsheet to this years thread.  This sheet has list of all potential plays for the season...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqeramS3XxS4dF9DZ3QtS1VGaE1reXQtR2xMeGw0M1E&usp=sharing
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 10/3/2013 11:34:44 AM
San Jose is at -135 or -140 everywhere in Vegas so they are a play. 

San Jose, Boston, Pittsburgh and STL all on the A game today. STL is the only one with a chance of double dip since they have 5 games in a row at home and the others all 3. Let's do this!
breezeyo PM breezeyo
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Posted: 10/3/2013 11:46:24 AM
I now see where an aggressive labby makes sense.   -200,-205,-190 lol
predsinGA PM predsinGA
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Posted: 10/3/2013 1:09:07 PM
Dan, thanks for doing the system again man! After reading about last year and following the RPI, I'm definitely tailing this one.

Quick question though, how would you use the labby on a night like tonight with 4 games?  Would you start 4 sets of lines?

mills2626 PM mills2626
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Posted: 10/3/2013 1:11:39 PM
So how does this work? You just betting all 4 games straight up?
mills2626 PM mills2626
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Posted: 10/3/2013 1:23:34 PM
I've got a bankroll of $1k for hockey. What should I be betting per game? What does the A,B,C mean? 
GreenMachine22 PM GreenMachine22
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Posted: 10/3/2013 1:25:28 PM
Too many questions guys....let Dan focus.  I'm sure if he's willing, he will post example lines with the first couple plays to clue us in re: wagers.

Dan - I have been following therizz & this system for years now.  Cheers to another profitable one, and thank you for keeping it up!
GreenMachine22 PM GreenMachine22
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Posted: 10/3/2013 1:32:21 PM
shoulda been a
GreenMachine22 PM GreenMachine22
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Posted: 10/3/2013 1:52:39 PM
and with all the games that qualify tonight, it might be a good time to wait for a B or C play to hammer...as there is bound to be one or more.



GreenMachine22 PM GreenMachine22
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Posted: 10/3/2013 2:03:37 PM
2013-2014 season record: 0-0

THURSDAY GAMES:


A - GAMES:
SJ -140 (or 1st 60mins -1/2 for +122 @ 5dimes)
BOS -200 (or 1st 60mins -1/2 for -120 @ 5dimes)
PIT -185 (or 1st 60mins -1/2 for -116 @ 5 dimes)
STL -210 (or 1st 60mins -1/2 for -116 @ 5dimes)

B: none
C: none
Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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Posted: 10/3/2013 4:01:55 PM

Sorry for the late reply, I'm actually relaxing on the beach in Mexico and had to go local and bet pesos, lol. I'm not one to tell anyone how to bet or what they should bet. I'd be careful betting too much with a $1k bankroll because a modest losing streak could be trouble especially with high lines like today.

Some people prefer a strict Martingale chase where if you lose the first game (marked as A) you bet the second game (B game) what you lost on the first game PLUS what you want to profit. Doing this and going to a C game can be expensive.

With 4 teams going tonight I'd start with 4 seperate A game labby lines if you are doing labby. Any that win are obviously done with but any losers can just be bet with the next A games later on. For example, let's say your betting unit size is $50 and we go 2-2 tonight. I'd set up my lines like this (others can do it differently, the idea is to protect bankroll in case of a bad streak).

  • 25-25 San Jose, -140 bet $70 to win $50
  • 25-25 Boston, -200 bet $100
  • 25-25 Pitt, -190 bet $95
  • 25-25 STL, -210 bet $105

Say SJ and Boston win and are done those lines are complete. Pitt and STL lose their A games. We split the loss between the next A game line and the next B game lines.

 A game lines

  • 25 - 72.50 ($25 plus 1/2 of the $95 lost)
  • 25 - 77.50 ($25 plus 1/2 of the $105 lost)

B game lines

  • 25 - 72.50 ($25 plus 1/2 of the $95 lost from A game)
  • 25 - 77.50 ($25 plus 1/2 of the $105 lost from A game)
  • What this does is lower our risk on the game 2 of a 3 game chase and also for game 3 if it comes to that. We can regain those small loses on the next A and B game wins. If the lines get too big, you can add another line under any letter at anytime to spread out the lines and lower the amount per line.

    I know that may be confusing. I liked what English Gent did when tracking the units on his thread last year and maybe I can replicate it, but modify to an aggressive labby line. Just plug in your betting size for the numbers I use.

    So tonight we'd have 4 lines each consisting of 2 numbers of 1/2 a unit, betting to win 1 unit each. I'll include the lines for those that want to follow the labby line method. For those that run a strict Martingale chase, please disregard and ignore my lines and unit totals.

    • .5 - .5
    • .5 - .5
    • .5 - .5
    • .5 - .5

     

    mills2626 PM mills2626
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    Posted: 10/3/2013 4:10:11 PM
    Maybe I should stick to football, lol
    Danrules24 PM Danrules24
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    Posted: 10/3/2013 4:18:04 PM

    Here are the lines I'm using for today. If I was in Vegas I'd be able to check the lines at Cantor, but the ones below are fairly common:

    Pitt -190

    Bos -200

    SJ -140

    STL -200 (you can probably get this lower)

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