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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB Underdog Systems - Anyone want to track this for the season?
BuckeyeKaptn send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#51
Posted: 4/21/2013 10:54:01 AM
Changed it back when I realized that changing that cell ruins a formula.  
The Low Scoring Dog column doesn't work...if I get the right idea on the system, Min, TB, and Pit should be plays and nothing is in column I.
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#52
Posted: 4/21/2013 12:44:31 PM

Sunday 4/21 system plays:

NYY 134

Minn 134

Pitt 155

TB 104

NYM 125

Hou 107

Sea 149

SD 132

Phil 102

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#53
Posted: 4/21/2013 12:53:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Changed it back when I realized that changing that cell ruins a formula.  
The Low Scoring Dog column doesn't work...if I get the right idea on the system, Min, TB, and Pit should be plays and nothing is in column I.

You are right - Pitt and Minn should qualify under Low Scoring Dog but aren't there.

TB was a fav on Saturday so doesn't qualify. Had to be a dog and win while scoring 3 or less and dog today.

Need to have Degen take a look.

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#54
Posted: 4/21/2013 12:56:38 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

 didn't work .....Pitt didn't come up when when I changed it to 4   Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn]"All Games Systems...Col AI (Underdogs <6hits...False to True)?   did work when I changed Pitt's from false to true...Pitts came up on Summary...Underdogs <= 6 Hits (Col K)

Under the 6 hit system I had Pitt, TB, Minn. Did you run the update after entering the number of hits allowed in column L?

What I do for last games of series is look at every team that won the previous day and enter the number of hits allowed, then run update.

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#55
Posted: 4/21/2013 1:07:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Under the 6 hit system I had Pitt, TB, Minn. Did you run the update after entering the number of hits allowed in column L?

What I do for last games of series is look at every team that won the previous day and enter the number of hits allowed, then run update.

Ok, got it.  I was screwing around and had to update (after I entered the hits), and those 3 came up.  
When you get a chance, could you put up the stats for each system, so I can start keeping the stats.  Also, can you able to add a sheet or two to the spreadsheet without screwing up the updates?  This way I can keep all info in one spreadsheet.
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#56
Posted: 4/21/2013 1:13:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Ok, got it.  I was screwing around and had to update (after I entered the hits), and those 3 came up.  
When you get a chance, could you put up the stats for each system, so I can start keeping the stats.  Also, can you able to add a sheet or two to the spreadsheet without screwing up the updates?  This way I can keep all info in one spreadsheet.

Degen is the spreadsheet guy, I'll leave any changes to him.

After today's games I will include a breakdown on each system for w/l record and units. As you can see teams can qualify for more than one system so I track each system seperately but for posting on here it's just one play for overall w/l and units. So when you add up the total record and units it will not match the system play totals. I hope that makes sense.

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#57
Posted: 4/21/2013 1:38:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Danrules24:

Degen is the spreadsheet guy, I'll leave any changes to him.

After today's games I will include a breakdown on each system for w/l record and units. As you can see teams can qualify for more than one system so I track each system seperately but for posting on here it's just one play for overall w/l and units. So when you add up the total record and units it will not match the system play totals. I hope that makes sense.

Man do I suck.....another good catch guys - found another error in the formula that prevented it from producing any plays for low scoring dogs.  Fixed it - and uploaded V6 - same link.

I hate it when I make dumb mistakes like that.  Sorry about that

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#58
Posted: 4/21/2013 1:43:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

Man do I suck.....another good catch guys - found another error in the formula that prevented it from producing any plays for low scoring dogs.  Fixed it - and uploaded V6 - same link.

I hate it when I make dumb mistakes like that.  Sorry about that

Are you kidding?!!!  You do awesome work!  I wish I had the know how to this stuff, I'm just a mailman in Ohio, lol.  I d loaded most of what you did in the other thread... terrific stuff.  Wished one of them would have carried over to 2013.

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#59
Posted: 4/21/2013 1:56:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Are you kidding?!!!  You do awesome work!  I wish I had the know how to this stuff, I'm just a mailman in Ohio, lol.  I d loaded most of what you did in the other thread... terrific stuff.  Wished one of them would have carried over to 2013.

Thanks Buckeye....I plan to update some of the excel spreadsheets for 2013 - it's on my to do list.  But I have been focusing on some other things.  Looking at some Sabermetrics stuff.  To be honest I hate chases with high juice.  That's why betting on dogs has intrigued me and i'm looking into that - to be honest i'm just a horrible capper, but i'm great with excel - so I automate things try it out for awhile - sometimes it works for awhile - sometime they tank.  Super Systems worked for awhile and then it started to tank so I stopped and kept some profits - but those were mostly chases with heavy juice.

So at the moment i'm looking at some  other dog systems - some Sabermetrics stuff and i'll get those B2W and maybe super systems spreadsheets up and running for 2013 at some point - hopefully.

 

 

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#60
Posted: 4/21/2013 2:01:09 PM

Just downloaded the new and improved one. Looks good. Thanks for the quick fix.

Also, I'm 3 weeks into testing last year's system for the MLB Dog system (Tony Stoffo system). I started on 4/16 to mirror this year. I'm not able to filter out the top 20 pitchers but this will still give a decent idea on how it did. First week down 7.69 units, week 2 +4.94, week 3 +4.72 (was up over 12 until the final day). Overall +1.97 after 3 weeks. I'll post again when I get further.

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#61
Posted: 4/21/2013 2:17:47 PM

Danrules - I think Sagarin ranks by NPERA which is normalized predicted ERA - he goes into some detail on how it's calculated - but I think it would be difficult to replicate. The metric is derived using the Markov Chain algorithm which is a rigorous statistical methodology.  It's probably too difficult to calculate.  What you could do is just rank the pitchers by ERA at that time up to the date your checking and eliminate any games where the pitcher is in the top 25 or 30

This would just be an approximization probably but maybe it's good enough for a rough ROI

DG

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#62
Posted: 4/21/2013 9:49:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

So at the moment i'm looking at some  other dog systems - some Sabermetrics stuff and i'll get those B2W and maybe super systems spreadsheets up and running for 2013 at some point - hopefully. 

I have updated the MLB Super Systems for 2013 under the tabs "Teams" and "Series" though under "Series" I have yet to do the ABCs of each series.  The problem is Detroit's stats under the "Standings" tab.  This causes a problem when you open the spreadsheet, and when there is any series play involving Detroit.  Here's what I've done so far:

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZQTF1bDhTOWsxenc/edit?usp=sharing
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#63
Posted: 4/21/2013 11:33:39 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:


I have updated the MLB Super Systems for 2013 under the tabs "Teams" and "Series" though under "Series" I have yet to do the ABCs of each series.  

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0Bynr1eDtdk5ZQTF1bDhTOWsxenc/edit?usp=sharing

Series tab is complete, all series are set up as "3A" etc, with "3" being the # of games in the series, and "A" being the 1st game of the series, and so forth...
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#64
Posted: 4/22/2013 12:07:29 AM

Sunday 4/21 results:

5-4, +2.2 units

YTD:  22-22, +6.1 units

NYY 134 Loss

Minn 134 WIN

Pitt 155 WIN

TB 104 WIN

NYM 125 WIN

Hou 107 Loss

Sea 149 Loss

SD 132 Loss

Phil 102 WIN

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#65
Posted: 4/22/2013 12:22:59 AM

After 1 week:

Low Scoring Dog : 2-0 , +2.89 units

Div Dog: 3-9, - 4.06

Dog 6 hit: 5-1 +6.07

MLB Dog: 16-14,  +5.26 units

Top 20 Under: 4-1, 2.9 units

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#66
Posted: 4/22/2013 7:48:29 AM
Dan...What do you use for record keeping...the odds at the time when you bet or closing lines on some site?  Reason I asked, is because I placed my Phil bet when I placed the others...about a half hour before the first games started.  I noticed throughout the day that the odds on Philly went up to the point that at gametime, they were a -110 favorite and either St Louis would have been a play or there wouldn't be one.  Just curious, so I can do the same. 
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#67
Posted: 4/22/2013 11:30:09 AM
DeGen, figured out the problem with Supersystems and also B2W's RPI. Where ever the info is being pulled from, it's skipping Atlanta's stats and putting the team below in it's spot (Baltimore) and doing this all the way to Detroit, which has no stats.  From Houston to Washington, everything is fine and the spreadsheets work great and is accurate as long as no team is from Atlanta to Detroit alphabetically. I made the changes to 2013 on both, but I don't know how to fix this problem.
Just putting this out there, as you've mentioned about wanting to update those 2 eventually.
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#68
Posted: 4/22/2013 12:50:38 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BuckeyeKaptn:

Dan...What do you use for record keeping...the odds at the time when you bet or closing lines on some site?  Reason I asked, is because I placed my Phil bet when I placed the others...about a half hour before the first games started.  I noticed throughout the day that the odds on Philly went up to the point that at gametime, they were a -110 favorite and either St Louis would have been a play or there wouldn't be one.  Just curious, so I can do the same. 

When I run the update on the spreadsheet I post on here and then don't look at it again. If Philly goes from a dog to a fav even better. Nothing wrong with getting + odds on a fave, no?

If you run the update later than I do and the odds changed such as the Philly game, I guess that would be your call on whether to bet it or not. I'm not betting any of these yet, just testing and tracking.

I use the posted odds on the spreadsheet for tracking purposes. Your book may differ a bit. I bet at the Red Rock and there is usually a slight difference in those lines but not a big deal as I'm just tracking for now.

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#69
Posted: 4/22/2013 4:37:23 PM

Monday 4/22 system plays:

Tor 110

Tex 104

AZ 108

NYY/TB Under 7 -120

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#70
Posted: 4/23/2013 1:17:48 AM

Monday 4/22 results:

2-2, +.04 units

YTD 24-24, +6.14 units

Tor 110 Loss

Tex 104 WIN

AZ 108 Loss

NYY/TB Under 7 -120 WIN

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#71
Posted: 4/23/2013 1:41:29 PM

System plays for Tuesday 4/23:

Balt 101

KC 165

Wash 105

Pitt 148

NYM 129

Clev 111

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#72
Posted: 4/23/2013 3:12:11 PM

DanRules,

I uploaded a new version of the spreadsheet (V7 - same link). I added 2 columns for "Dog Efficiency" that may be useful. 

Another covers member brought this angle to my attention that may be useful in filtering out plays.

Basically, the Dog Efficiency for a team is their W/L records as dogs. So if they played 10 games all as dogs and went 5-5, they would be .500

I took it a step farther and also added their "Dog Efficiency" using the current odds they are given for today's matchup.

So for example a team may be 5-5 overall as a dog but what if 5 of those Wins they were dogs between +100 and +120 and all the losses they were dogs between 140 and 160.  And let's say today's matchup they are dogs of +145.  So their efficiency overall may be .500 but as a +145 dog they are 0-5

Well just something to give insight and maybe be used as a filter in the future - you may want to record their Dog Efficiency as well with a W or L - maybe it's something that can improve our ROI in the future

  

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#73
Posted: 4/23/2013 3:52:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DegenGamble:

DanRules,

I uploaded a new version of the spreadsheet (V7 - same link). I added 2 columns for "Dog Efficiency" that may be useful. 

Another covers member brought this angle to my attention that may be useful in filtering out plays.

Basically, the Dog Efficiency for a team is their W/L records as dogs. So if they played 10 games all as dogs and went 5-5, they would be .500

I took it a step farther and also added their "Dog Efficiency" using the current odds they are given for today's matchup.

So for example a team may be 5-5 overall as a dog but what if 5 of those Wins they were dogs between +100 and +120 and all the losses they were dogs between 140 and 160.  And let's say today's matchup they are dogs of +145.  So their efficiency overall may be .500 but as a +145 dog they are 0-5

Well just something to give insight and maybe be used as a filter in the future - you may want to record their Dog Efficiency as well with a W or L - maybe it's something that can improve our ROI in the future

  

Looks great. For Efficiency using odds, did you use groups of 20? Something like 100-120, 121-140, etc..

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#74
Posted: 4/23/2013 4:33:59 PM
Curious, why is KC a play when they are above the +150 threshold?
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#75
Posted: 4/23/2013 4:39:07 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by TheMoneyTeam:

Curious, why is KC a play when they are above the +150 threshold?

KC falls under the Divisional Dog system.

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