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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Early Season, Road Dog In-Division RL 4 Game Chase System
Ddubb_Steady send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Westgate Las Vegas Superbook |
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#1
Posted: 4/1/2013 11:55:22 AM

Manage your bankroll appropriately. This is a 4 game chase. Using the +1.5 RL you will gain 20-30 units in the first 5-6 weeks of the season. The title of the thread explains it all but here it is again... Early season (meaning April and early May only AND it's a 1 and done. ONCE A TEAM GAINS A WIN, DON'T PLAY THEM AGAIN.) Road Dog In-Division RL (meaning +1.5 or occasionally +2.5 like today with the Marlins) 4 game chase (meaning manage your bankroll so that you don't crash and burn because of lack of funds to chase to completion) system.

You have the rules. Plays may or may not be posted here or elsewhere. Remember, MANAGE YOUR MONEY.

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#2
Posted: 4/1/2013 11:57:53 AM

Today's Plays:

Cubs +1.5

Boston +1.5

Marlins +2.5

KC +1.5

SF +1.5

Phillies +1.5

Seattle +1.5

Remember, manage your money. You may not want to enter into a chase on all of these plays. Set your goals, follow your rules and manage that bankroll. Good luck!

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#3
Posted: 4/1/2013 5:10:50 PM
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#4
Posted: 4/2/2013 10:27:16 AM

MANAGE YOUR BANKROLL.

5 Wins yesterday eliminating Cubs, Boston, Marlins, Royals and Seattle from the system.

SF and Philly go to game 2.

BALT +1.5 game 1

POSSIBLE PLAY ON SF+1.5 game 2 (they may not remain a dog)

MANAGE YOUR BANKROLL. YOU MAY NOT WANT TO ENTER AN ADDITIONAL CHASE SINCE WE HAVE 2 CHASES ALREADY IN PROGRESS. DON'T SHOOT YOUR LOAD AND GO HOME LIMP BEFORE WE EVEN GET TO THE 7TH INNING STRETCH.

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#5
Posted: 4/2/2013 9:19:28 PM

A win with Baltimore today which eliminates them from the system. That makes 6 wins and 2 teams still in the chase, both at game 2.

SF does not fit the system unfortunately. They are still the dog on the RL but the ML is currently at -103. I'll pass and see if they fit tomorrow with Lincecum v. Beckett.

Remember, manage your money well and it will multiply over time.

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#6
Posted: 4/3/2013 7:17:20 AM

Plays for today:

Phillies +1.5 game 2

SF +1.5 game 2

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#7
Posted: 4/3/2013 3:28:05 PM
hey ddubb, have you played this system any prior years? If so how many and what were the results?
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#8
Posted: 4/4/2013 7:16:44 AM

Last 3 seasons I've played it without a loss but you have to follow the rules posted above. This same system was posted here on Covers last season. It seems like it gained 22 units but it may have been more. You can look back in the threads and find it I am sure. You gain approximately 20-25 units but you could gain as many as 30 since there are 30 teams. Please remember, this is EARLY SEASON ONLY.

Another win last night with SF.

TODAY: Game 3 Phil +1.5

Manage your bankroll.

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#9
Posted: 4/4/2013 9:51:54 PM

Another win with Phi +1.5.

So first set of series are done and we come away with 7 wins, 5 of them straight up, and no losses with no chases pending. The following teams are no longer eligible for the system:

Cubs, Boston, Marlins, Royals, SF, Phils, Seattle

Looks like we will have 2 plays (game 1) tomorrow:

LAA +1.5

SD +1.5

MANAGE YOUR BANKROLL.

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#10
Posted: 4/5/2013 8:35:59 PM

Another winner with LAA +1.5.

SD +1.5 game 2 for tomorrow

MANAGE YOUR BANKROLL.

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#11
Posted: 4/6/2013 9:45:04 AM
Didn't the first set of series result in 8 wins with Baltimore as well? I just stumbled on this system yesterday, seems interesting.
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#12
Posted: 4/6/2013 10:02:36 AM

Yes Banny that is correct 8 wins in the first set of series.

Now we are up to 9 wins with 1 chase pending:

SD +1.5 game 2

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#13
Posted: 4/6/2013 1:12:17 PM

SD +1.5 RL @ -155

you call this 'value' ? This happens to be a mild one, most of the +RL you are posting range from a minimum of -160 to well over -200 Do you even take under consideration the SP? or the handicap matchup? Do you even capp the game at large? or is all this in the blind? you consistently mention to "manage your bankroll" are you saying to double down on loses with prices above -160? the sacrafice of a half run just doesn't carry it's value in a ML sport, especially MLB.  I doubt very seriously that you played this system for 3 winning seasons as you have stated; if so, back up your results, with documented facts. After in-depth review, I find this system posted "nowhere" on Covers.com last year (as you have stated), I would appreciate the links if you have them available. please continue, and incorporate your MM technique, attached to your loses...I am sure you must realize, regardless of the size of your bankroll, if 3 teams lose, your wiped out- as you stated, "Manage your Bankroll"  my best to your system, may you prosper.with it...

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#14
Posted: 4/6/2013 1:38:20 PM

A prime example

Miami Marlins +2.5 RL @ -325

a loss would put you at  a $975 wager....winning a grand total of $100-

a second loss would put you at a $2925 wager, ect, ect

do you really feel Miami, a team in the lower NL bracket is not capable of losing 2 games to the Mets? realizing your next wager, based upon a loss will cost you close to 6k 'minimum' or; do you feel your going to win every game? as you have for the past 3 seasons? this is only one example, multiply it by 2 loses and your down 9k (based on 1unit=$100 I'm sure your reference of 22units is not based upon $220 rather then $2200

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#15
Posted: 4/7/2013 12:09:27 PM

Yeah I realized that after I posted it but I did not post the plays to this system last season on Covers. I posted it on Twitter. I remember now why I did not and have not posted the plays here on Covers which is why many of the others that have systems posted in this forum do not post plays on Covers. They post them on separate spreadsheets and on Twitter so that more control can be had to limit the nonsense. And yes you are right it has not been 3 seasons. I have actually been doing this system since 2007 but I tweaked it 3 years ago to play the RL instead of ML. And I believe you may be lost... this is the systems forums. There is no consideration given to SP and no search for value being done in this forum unless it is part of the system. My system does not claim to find value, only wins. And yes I preach money management. I have done so not only in this post but in other posts as well. As for your "prime example"... Miami was not playing the Mets. They were playing the Nats. And they were not required to win. That's why the +2.5 was bought and not at -325. It was at -180 which is comparable to most +1.5 RL's. By the way, if you'll notice the lowly Marlins covered even using the +1.5 RL but it would have gone to the 4th game vs. Mets (3 vs Nats and then a win with +1.5 vs Mets in game 1 of that series).

It is entirely up to you whether you want 20-25 units in the first 4-6 weeks of the long baseball season. I have posted this system only to share with others what I have profited from these past several seasons. I am not touting and have even stated that a person may not want to enter into more than 1 or 2 chases at a time. This is all part of money management.

The play today is SD+1.5 game 3

and remember... MANAGE YOUR BANKROLL.  

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#16
Posted: 4/8/2013 8:30:01 PM

Sorry about not posting sooner. Since I quit my job over 2 months ago, the days just blend together and I was on a plane and in the airports most of the day.

As you know, the plays/chases that started today were as follows:

Mil +1.5 winner

Balt +1.5 onto game 2

Min +1.5 onto game 2

Cin +1.5 winner

NYM +1.5 pending

Hou +1.5 pending

Col +1.5 pending

Remember we have SD chase still pending but they won't qualify again until 4/15 when they play the Dodgers.

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#17
Posted: 4/8/2013 8:41:30 PM
Baltimore got eliminated with a win last week against Tampa.
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#18
Posted: 4/9/2013 12:29:44 AM

Yeah you're right Banny. I need to be more attentive to my own system I guess. It's just difficult when all I do is only what I want to do. When I broke free from the prison that is corporate America... well anyway, I won't bore you with stories of freedom, happiness and control over all my time and creativity.

I didn't strike the O's off my list. Sorry. But after today we can strike off the Mets, Brewers and Reds with Colorado and Houston still playing tonight. And of course SD going to game 4 on 4/15.

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#19
Posted: 4/9/2013 11:04:40 AM

Teams that have won and are thereby eliminated from our system plays:

Cubs

Boston

Miami

Royals

Seattle

Baltimore

San Fran

Phillies

LA Angels

Milwaukee

Reds

NY Mets

 

Chase pending with SD game 4 due on 4/15.

Today's Plays:

MN +1.5 game 2

Houston +1.5 game 2

Colorado +1.5 game 2

 

Beautiful day here in Cali, Colombia. Make it a great day wherever you're at!  

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#20
Posted: 4/9/2013 12:29:27 PM
What about LA Dodgers and A's?
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#21
Posted: 4/9/2013 12:30:39 PM
Scratch LAD, they are favorite.
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#22
Posted: 4/9/2013 12:59:13 PM

Yes Oak +1.5 in the late game is correct.

LAD are one of the teams that may not qualify for the system at all. Maybe against the Giants but they don't visit SF until May 3-5. That is the outer edge of this system and they would not have 4 games to complete a chase.

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#23
Posted: 4/10/2013 9:28:07 AM

Picked up a couple more wins last night with Oakland and Houston. That's 14 now with SD chase pending and...

Today's Plays:

COL +1.5 game 3

MINN +1.5 game 3

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#24
Posted: 4/12/2013 10:12:27 AM

You could have opted to play TX last night and gained a win. I chose to eliminate TX from the system altogether because there is a good chance they won't have 4 games as dogs that fit the system.

Today COL is not a dog so we will not chase on the 4th game.

The Rays +1.5 currently sit as a dog and could be a play today along with:

CHX +1.5

ATL +1.5

all three would be game 1's in the chase.

Watch the lines tomorrow for COL. We could be chasing on game 4 if they are a dog to SD. I'll be unavailable most of the day tomorrow. I am also eliminating LAD from the system altogether as they will probably not see enough games as dogs to qualify.

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#25
Posted: 4/12/2013 5:43:53 PM

COL +1.5 is now the dog on the RL. I like it to be even or + money on the ML too.

COL +1.5 would be a game 4 chase tonight. This is where your own opinion would come in as to whether you want to go ahead and chase it tonight or wait until COL is a dog on both. It probably will not be tomorrow with Chacin pitching.

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