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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Need help fast!!
trustandfall send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
trustandfall
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Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 1779
Location: Texas
#1
Posted: 3/14/2013 7:29:49 PM
Typically, I'm great at math, but this scenario is driving me crazy trying to figure out the smartest thing to do. 

I recently bet a compact round robin, here's the ticket:

COMPACT ROUND ROBIN (10P-2T,10P-3T,5P-4T,1P-5T)
[704] PORTLAND -5½-110
[712] MARQUETTE -2½-110
[724] MICHIGAN -14½-110
[737] IOWA STATE -1-110
[740] KANSAS -20½-110

650 / 3900

I hit the bottom 3 out of the 5 so far. Now, my bookies site doesn't compute the winnings/losses of a compact round robin till all games have been played. If I look at my history on his site for wins/losses, the two teamer and 3 teamer parlays for Michigan, Iowa State and Kansas have not yet been calculated.

I currently have a -$196 balance with this bookie. My question is, how much, and which of the two remaining games would be wisest to hedge out of?

Should I bet $500 on both games the opposite way for max value? It seems to me it'd be smartest to bet $500 on just the other way in the Marquette game. Reasoning behind this assumption is that if Marquette loses, I win the $500 bet, and still have a chance to hit the Portland play. If that happens and I miss the Portland play, I probably am very close to a $0 balance.

What would you do?
quote
trustandfall send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
trustandfall
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 1779
Location: Texas
#2
Posted: 3/14/2013 7:50:48 PM
If I've done my math correctly, I've won $345 with $550 remaining in bets.

Kansas
Iowa State - WIN         25/65

Kansas
Michigan   - WIN         25/65

Kansas
Marquette

Kansas
Portland

Iowa State - WIN         25/65
Michigan

Iowa State
Marquette

Iowa State
Portland

Michigan
Marquette

Michigan
Portland

Marquette
Portland


Kansas
Michigan
Iowa State - WIN     25/$150


$550 remaining
$345 won

Maybe hedge $750 in both remaining games?

If they split I nearly break even, if either side covers (hedge bets or the round robin) I either win $1500 from the hedge bets or $3900-1500 = $2400 from round robin hitting minus the hedge bets...

What do you guys think?
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