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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: CAP's Baseball Killers and Long Term Winners
BCap888
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#1
Posted: 2/7/2013 8:43:55 PM
Hey guys, some of you might remember I ran a thread last year at the start of the baseball season. We had some pretty good success for about a month but then I believe some small samples and bad decisions on my part knocked us down. Well, this season, after some extensive data mining and support from 1958a, I'm bringing an improved version of what I had last year. I have 5 Underdog Systems that will be referred to as my "Baseball Killers" and I have 5 other systems that have shown success over a span of at least 1000 games each. These are all SDQL created systems and I'll provide at least a few of the queries before the season. I know it's still early but I thought I would get it out there that come baseball season I'm going to have some profitable systems for everybody. I'll be sharing the results from my 10 systems here in a minute.

CAP
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#2
Posted: 2/7/2013 9:16:44 PM
Baseball Killers
These are all Money line Underdog plays. All 5 systems have produced at least .500 records since 2004 (246-246) is the lowest winning percentage. All flat bets.

Since '04:
1365-1271 ML Underdogs
+566.82 Units
22% ROI

2012:
146-155 ML Underdogs
+35.42 Units
12% ROI


Baseball Long Term Winners
These are mostly Underdogs but there are also some favorites thrown in.

Since '04:
3803-4250 ML
+626.82 Units

2012:
432-498 ML
+52.60 Units

I will keep these 2 distinctions between the groups throughout the season. Hopefully you decide to come on board with me and we can turn a significant profit. See you guys in a couple months, BOL 'til then.

CAP
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#3
Posted: 2/8/2013 10:05:52 AM
Bcap,
your data look great!
Please check if your systems produce positive ROI for the last 5 years (each and every year) as it is the case with 2012..
If the answer is yes, we will have an exciting season........
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#4
Posted: 2/8/2013 11:04:59 AM
10 systems is quite an undertaking.....are there not maybe one or two of these systems that constantly outperform the others?...if so then maybe increasing the unit size on these systems and ditching the others maybe better?....or is it a case of 10 more or less equal performing systems?

also are you flat betting at 1 unit at play?

your data looks promising....gl
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BCap888
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Posted: 2/8/2013 12:11:01 PM
Yes they're flat bets. And 1958 the Baseball Killers have only had 3 losing seasons amongst them, the worst being -.5 units in 2009 which was a down year for just about everything I've searched for, so -.5 isn't a huge concern for me that year. The long term winners have only had 2 losing seasons amongst them, a -1.95 units in 2010 and a -12.75 in 2009. And in 2009 all 5 LTW combined were +26.3 units so the others more than made up for it. And Englishthe range of ROIs on the LTW is 7.9 to 10.0 and the range on the BK is 17.1 to 26.3 so there iisn't a lot to desperate them enough to pick and choose. Plus by having 5 of each it gives more than enough room for error should something wacky happen.
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#6
Posted: 2/11/2013 6:16:11 PM

won't be long now..

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BCap888
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#7
Posted: 2/21/2013 9:48:50 PM
In honor of Spring Training beginning tomorrow I'm going to give out 2 of the systems I'll be posting for baseball this season.

Long Term Winner:

DIV and D and ppppp:SHF >= 19 and ppppp:SHF <= 24 and pppp:SHF >= 22 and pppp:SHF <= 32 and ppp:SHF >= 19 and ppp:SHF <= 31 and pp:SHF >= 13 and pp:SHF <= 27 and p:SHF >= 21 and p:SHF <= 30

Division Dog
5 games ago the starter faced between 19 and 24 hitters.
4 games ago the starter faced between 22 and 32 hitters.
3 games ago the starter faced between 19 and 31 hitters.
2 games ago the starter faced between 13 and 27 hitters.
Last game the starter faced between 21 and 30 hitters.

Since 2004:

587-665 with an average line of +139. $100 wagerers won $12,524 (+125.24 Units) for a 10.0% ROI.

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Posted: 2/21/2013 9:56:21 PM
Baseball Killer:

D and ppppp:SIP < 6 and pppp:SIP > 5.67 and pppp:SIP < 8.67 and ppp:SIP > 5 and ppp:SIP < 8.33 and pp:SIP > 4.67 and pp:SIP < 6.67 and p:SIP > 4.33 and p:SIP < 7.33 and sss:SHF > 19 and sss:SHF < 30 and ss:SHF > 22 and ss:SHF < 33 and s:SHF > 18 and s:SHF < 31 and P:runs > 0 and P:runs < 12

Underdog
5 games ago the starter threw less than 6 innings.
4 games ago the starter threw more than 5 and 2/3 and less than 8 and 2/3 innings.
3 games ago the starter threw more than 5 and less than 8 and 1/3 innings.
2 games ago the starter threw more than 4 and 2/3 and less than 6 and 2/3 innings.
Last game the starter threw more than 4 and 1/3 and less than 7 and 1/3 innings.
3 starts ago this starter faced more than 19 hitters and less than 30 hitters.
2 starts ago this starter faced more than 22 hitters and less than 33 hitters.
Last start this starter faced more than 18 hitters and less than 31 hitters.
In the previous game this team scored between 1 and 11 runs.

Since 2004:

246-246 with an average line of +136. $100 wagerers won $8,394 (+83.94 Units) for a 17.1% ROI.
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#9
Posted: 2/22/2013 12:55:43 PM

the second one is awesome
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#10
Posted: 2/24/2013 9:07:28 AM
Nice work BCap.  I'll be following along this season.
I myself am just getting familiar with sportsdatabase (thanks to 1958a) and hope to uncover some good systems with it this season. 
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#11
Posted: 2/24/2013 10:24:30 PM
Here's another Baseball Killer:

D and ssss:strike outs > 5 and ssss:strike outs < 11 and sss:strike outs > 2 and sss:strike outs < 13 and ss:strike outs > 0 and ss:strike outs < 14 and s:strike outs < 13 and pppp:strike outs < 5 and ppp:strike outs > 2 and ppp:strike outs < 10 and pp:strike outs > 2 and pp:strike outs < 15 and p:strike outs > 3 and p:strike outs < 15 and ss:walks > 0 and ss:walks < 7 and s:walks < 7 and p:walks > 0

Underdog
4 starts ago this starter struck out between 6 and 10 batters.
3 starts ago this starter struck out between 3 and 12 batters.
2 starts ago this starter struck out between 1 and 13 batters.
Last start this starter struck out less than 13 batters.
4 games ago the team's pitchers struck out less than 5 batters.
3 games ago the team's pitchers struck out between 3 and 9 batters.
2 games ago the team's pitchers struck out between 3 and 14 batters.
Last game the team's pitchers struck out between 4 and 14 batters. 
2 starts ago this starter walked between 1 and 6 batters.
Last start this starter walked between 1 and 6 batters.

Since 2004:

421-403 with an average line of +135. $100 wagerers won $15,873 (158.73 Units) for a +19.3% ROI.
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#12
Posted: 2/26/2013 9:34:38 PM
Long Term Winner:

D and DIV and pppp:ou margin >= -1.5 and pppp:ou margin <= .5 and ppp:ou margin >= -4 and ppp:ou margin <= 1.5

Division Dog
4 games ago this team was less than 2 runs below the total but not more than .5 runs above the total.
3 games ago this team was less than 4.5 runs below the total but not more than 1.5 runs above the total.

Since 2004:

537-610 with an average line of +136. $100 wagerers won $10,159 (101.59 Units) for a +8.9% ROI.
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#13
Posted: 2/27/2013 12:48:27 AM
im going to ride with you what part of ny you from??
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Posted: 2/27/2013 1:12:45 PM
I'm from Ohio lol.
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#15
Posted: 3/6/2013 12:01:51 AM

Bcap,

Looks great man. BOL this season. Any chance for an explanation of the perameters? For example in post #11. You want an underdog with a pitcher that 4 starts ago struck out 6 to 10 batters? So to qualify this pitcher needs to have struck out no more than 10 and no less than 6 batters in his fourth start the day you are betting?

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Posted: 3/6/2013 9:30:43 AM
Yes that's right, but it also has to fit all of the other parameters as well. 
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#17
Posted: 3/6/2013 1:20:58 PM
must be exhausting tracking all this no?
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Posted: 3/6/2013 3:13:52 PM
The database keeps track of when there are plays so I only need to check the pages and the games that fit are spit out. Not much work at all actually.
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#19
Posted: 3/6/2013 11:42:38 PM
Well I hope I will be able to follow BCAP. Lets have a great baseball year!
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#20
Posted: 3/11/2013 12:24:10 AM
This may sound very rookie, and im sure it is, but ive seen a lot of systems posted all over the net, both here and other places.  But tonight is the first time i'm really seeing these people posting what appears as Excel sheets.  So is it basically like using some huge formula to figure things out?
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#21
Posted: 3/11/2013 1:34:22 AM
In a nutshell, yes. I personally don't use spreadsheets, I use an online database that runs SDQL searches for a given situation and returns all results, both historical and current, plus the record of each situation.
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#22
Posted: 3/31/2013 2:39:19 PM
Month of April Statistics:

Since '04 Baseball Killers

137-107 on Underdog plays.
Average of 15.2-11.9 per season in April.

Since '04 Long Term Winners

444-435 on Underdog plays.
Average of 49.3-48.3 per season in April.

It's going to take a few games for most systems and even a few weeks for some because they all rely on the teams previous 3, 4 or 5 games and on a starters past couple starts. Looking at the averages though, it looks like we can expect over 100 plays for the month. Stay tuned and BOL to everyone starting their baseball wagering tonight.
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#23
Posted: 3/31/2013 3:23:52 PM
BOL to all who will follow
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#24
Posted: 3/31/2013 4:17:40 PM
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#25
Posted: 4/3/2013 3:06:23 PM
Baseball Killers

4/3

Orioles +120
1 Unit to win 1.2 Units

YTD 0-0

BOL
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