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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: HOW TO GET STARTED AT THIS HANDICAPPING MESS!!!!
Ryanp26 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Ryanp26
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#1
Posted: 12/25/2012 11:57:59 PM

Hello all- I have read some good posts on how to get your feet off the ground lately.

I also read a complaint that spurred on 4 notes of my own as advice to someone who was struggling, as demonstrated by thier post- I will leave them anonymous, but I want to set the table on this thing for you before we get going,

well 2 tables-

THE ADULT TABLE- the following information is MY OPINION AND EXPERIENCE on how to PATIENTLY grow a bankroll, mostly off of PURCHASED INFORMATION, and advice I gave in the topic and forum of purchased information from a professional handicapper-- sorry, I have a job that I love, and it takes up some time... In 15 years, I would like to earn primarily on handicapping, and I started that journey exactly one year ago today, X-mas... and things are ahead of schedule...

THE KIDDIE TABLE- Please oh please speak with intellegence and don't assume I AM AN IDIOT if you don't agree with what I am saying- I can promise you, I'm not a famous capper, and I'm not rich... but I'd like to be the later one day, and I don't care about the first part... I have included as many STATISTICS as possible to describe MY OPINION of money management FOR A SORE INDIVIDUALS PARTICULAR POST, AND I AM PASTING IT WITHOUT EDITTING MUCH- if it gets lost in translation, either ask me what I mean, or its on you. I will say, the original post was easy to see through, it was pretty faulty in terms of plausability, but it spurred me to put my approach to paper, and I'd like to share it with you- I HAVE REMOVED THE NAMES OF HANDICAPPERS DISCUSSED with xxxx xxxxxx so you don't tell me I'm advertising for anyone... some people already have their whistles in their mouthes when they sign on, so I did the xxx xxxxx for 'the people'.... ("vote for me ya'll, vote for me ya'll, I'll set ya free!" -Shootyz Groove)

ENOUGH- on to the good stuff... PLEASE SHARE YOUR INPUT, even crappy information is worth looking in to a potential fade on the idea... isnt that the beauty of this?? (for newbies, google 'fading in sports betting' if that didnt make sense..... Remember, this is cut and paste, first the original post from INSERT NAME HERE, then my responses...

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Ryanp26 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Ryanp26
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#2
Posted: 12/26/2012 12:01:27 AM

 

Original post from INSERT NAME HERE was titled- WHAT HAPPENED TO YOUR SYSTEM, XXXX? (note from editor- its not Morrison, give me a little credit)

INSERT NAME HERE---Anybody who bets the XXXX XXXXXXX system knows what I'm talking about! darn! This is the sixth loss in a row! 2nd c play what the darn? I have been following this system for 3 years and never seen anything like this 6 losses!I'm fuckin busted!

All I can say good things come to an end! Freakin system will hit tomorrow guarantee! Funny thing, I lost everything!

 

NOTE FROM EDITOR- the following posts are my response...

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Ryanp26 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Ryanp26
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#3
Posted: 12/26/2012 12:09:49 AM

The following posts are my response to INSERT NAME HERE

WHATS UP INSERT NAME HERE,

I noticed your post was a few months ago, but I hope you read this... you mightve been following the picks, but not the system, def not for 3 years as I've read it and it touches on bankroll management.... botton line is, 2 staight c losses (entirely possible- you see 13 win streaks in streaker contests ALL THE TIME by amatuers, so you have to be prepared for 6 straight losses, or 2 straight c bets lost) shouldnt float you- here is my bankroll management advice-

You need to start with a $2,500 bankroll for a $50 unit, first and foremost, in your particular situation, AND THAT IS AGGRESSIVE- this starts you @ a 2% unit to your bankroll (50 being 2% of $2000... Anyone who has done this for 3 years knows this, by the way ; ) (I, too have made the same mistakes you speak of in earlier years, and I, too, have turned around and explained it the same way you have in the earlier years, so I stand before you with shame in hand)- keep in mind, this is PER SYSTEM AT A TIME. In other words, if you want to run an NBA system AND a NCAA college basketball system, it is SAFE to start with $5000. And this is AGGRESIVE in my opinion (will explain in later posts)

Now, here is where the magic happens--- again, you better be prepared for a 6-10 year plan before you make decent cash from ANY of this stuff, no matter who you buy information from (most long standing services, www.XXXXXXXXXXXX.com, for example, would take a $40,000 bank for a $50 to be safe, with the potential of 20 unit bets being placed on -500 to -1000 or worse lines, especially halftime lines, and you have to be ready to place mid game bets within 10 min of recieving info)-- I digress, back to the magic--

The most common flaw with bankroll management is- "when do I raise/decrease my unit??" I will give you an AGGRESSIVE approach, as well as a CONSERVATIVE approach WHEN DEALING WITH CHASE SYSTEMS> I believe XXXXX XXXXXXX only chases basketball and football, any and all other advices given are straight bets (baseball, hockey, soccer, NASCAR, MMA, golf, etc).

Since you are focusing on a 3 game chase, or bet C limit, as you stated, we will discuss that approach, as straight betting can be figured out through the explanation I am about to give + logic.

First, lets start with you hypothetical bankroll- $2,500 with a $50 unit. 2% unit bet.

we will look to increase our unit, consistently, by $10 for now, so the next unit goal is a $60 unit. We want to stick with our 2% unit, so we would need to get our bankroll to $3000 to start betting $60, right? WRONG....

(more to come, this is getting long and I don't know if there is limited space)....

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Ryanp26 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Ryanp26
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#4
Posted: 12/26/2012 12:12:45 AM

At the very least, you have to PREPARE FOR THE WORST. Look, $2500 to $3000 is only a 10 unit increase, and no one makes quick money doing this... so why would we? Here is how you 'insure' yourself (its called 'gambling' for a reason, there is always a risk). To dampen the risk, we need to exercise patience and remove greed.

Lets face facts, if the information is bad, its not going to work no matter how you manage you bankroll...

But if we just got to $3,000 from $2,500 on a $50 unit, we know we are coming off of a win- you arent going to lose your way to $500 more dollars... REMEMBER SIMPLE STATISTICS- bet C losses are coming at some point, no avoiding it in the long run, and the longer we go without one, the more likely we are to run in to one- simple statistics, my dear Watson.

A bet C wager LOST removes about 7.5 to 8 units, depending on how many hooks are in your mouth from purchasing them on the 3 bets that got you the loss ('buying a hook' is buying a 1/2 pt on a point spread, typically moving the vig from -110 to -120). SO- 8 units x $60= $480.

The semi-conservative approach is to KEEP YOUR UNIT @ $50 until you get to $3480. Now, if you raise your unit to $60 AND LOSE lose a bet C on your first run with the new unit, you are still @ 2% of your bankroll after incurring a bet C loss, leaving you @ $3000, still comfortable to bet a $60. If you lose 2 in a row, you are still in the game with a $2550 bankroll, and back to a $50 unit... (more to come)

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Ryanp26 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Ryanp26
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#5
Posted: 12/26/2012 12:15:00 AM

KEEP IN MIND, if the information you are getting is faulty, you won't be going up anyway- we are assuming we are getting information that will end up on a 55% win rate when its all said and done if we are going to be making a dime NO MATTER WHAT YOUR ANGLE IS.

now, back to the statistics-

The example I have given you above, (basically a 2% unit that gets raised once the unit is a shade above 1.4% of your bankroll) is AGGRESSIVE to me (patient souls win this race, I believe that to be common knowledge). I would suggest 2 things to remove a little risk- DOUBLE your amount needed to incur a loss yet still be at 2% of your bankroll. So for our above example, that would be $3480+$480, equaling $3960, lets round it one more unit(ish) to $4000, or 1.25% of your $50 unit. Now you can take 2 bet C losses in a row and still be @ 2% of your bankroll with a $60 unit.

Heres where I took it a step further- again, this is 'conservative' (such a hypocritical term in sports betting... unless you are making decent $$... then its more ironic i guess!). GET THE ROLL UP TO 1.25% AND WAIT FOR A BET C LOSS. Once you LOSE A BET C, increase your unit. Thats correct, lose first, raise your unit second. If you havent caught on by now, statistically speaking, it will be very hard to lose 2 bet Cs in a row (again, assuming we are using 55% information), making the BEST time to raise your unit AFTER A LOSS.

Bottom line, you are taking the guess work out, the human error... which is why 'vegas' (haha like its a guy running a switchboard) doesnt care if XXXX XXXXXXX's info is good or not- they don't trust you to manage your bankroll anyway, so they'll take the business across the board! Your responsibility, to counter the books and take your chip off the betting block, is to TAKE HUMAN ERROR OUT OF THE EQUATION.... tell me what I'm missing??....

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Ryanp26 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Ryanp26
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#6
Posted: 12/26/2012 12:16:13 AM

...heres what I'm missing--- if I do incur loses, when do I DROP MY UNIT DOWN A NOTCH- easy, imo- lets say you lose 2 bet Cs from $4000- I would maintain my $60 until I dip below $2750, or 1.8% of my previous unit or higher. Then its back to the grind.

My stance is simple and obvious. You cannot deny my statistics as mentioned above- NOTHING IS FOOL PROOF IN THIS WORLD THOUGH- the 2 variables are simple- ARE THE BETS I AM MAKING GOING TO HIT @ A 55% WINNING MARGIN??? (keep in mind, people have earned profits with less than 55%, but not over the long haul) AM I FOLLOWING MY BANKROLL MANAGEMENT.

REMEMBER, I have called the afermentioned information 'conservative.' The truly conservative way to run the management I just laid out is to run the unit rates EXACTLY AS DESCRIBED, plus a $5,000 base... I just don't know many people who can open accounts of $9,000 and dont know what I'm already saying... BUT, if you are patient, exponential growth says you can start with a $10 unit and run the same percentages (thats why I tried to include them).

My other piece of advice would be to open a play account for $500- so when you have no action that day but get to jones'in for some, you can make $10-$20 wagers to sooth your sweet tooth without bringing the human condition to your bankroll- LEAVE THE HUMAN CONDITION FOR THE FIELDS, RINKS, COURTS AND DIAMONDS- its the only way to earn some diamonds of your own...

garbage, I'm not trying to pat myself on the back, but, hey, I've seen guys getting thumbs up for less around here-

hope the read consumed you with intrigue and left you feeling like you just hit another unit.

-Pfeiff

ONE HOUR DEVOTED TO THE PURSUIT OF TRUTH AND BEAUTY IS WORTH MORE THAN A LIFETIME OF GLORY GIVEN BY THE FRIGHTENED AND WEAK TO THE STRONG

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bigkeith send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#7
Posted: 1/23/2013 2:01:02 PM

Without a doubt.

This is one of the worse threads I have ever seen.

Goes to show everyone, most people shouldnt gamble at all, let alone post threads.

BK

 

 

 

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