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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NHL 2011 Consensus Dogs
jonnymega send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jonnymega
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#1
Posted: 10/6/2011 12:24:58 PM

Hello and Happy Hockey Season!





Simply put, this system fades the consensus while picking the dogs with the better value.

Though there are some who do quite well laying the chalk, I've always found that playing the dogs and going against the public opinion was the better strategy when gaming the NHL. With that in mind, I offer to chart this method over the course of the season with this thread.

For tracking purposes, each play will be for one unit which will be 2% of the bankroll. So, with 3-5 plays per day, there should never be more than 10% risked at a time. Further, as the bank increases or decreases, the unit size adjusts accordingly.

I'm fully confident that, by using this process of money management along with some basic handicapping and a little luck, this thread will see positive results.

Thanks and GL to all this season!




quote
jonnymega send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jonnymega
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#2
Posted: 10/6/2011 12:27:58 PM
10/06/11


Bank $1000.00
Unit   $20.00


Today's plays:


PIT +138
PHI +122



BOLTA 


quote
glefkb01
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glefkb01
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#3
Posted: 10/6/2011 2:02:46 PM
Waiting for any NHL method.... had a great MLB season thanks to similar systems. GL!
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glefkb01
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glefkb01
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#4
Posted: 10/6/2011 2:02:48 PM
Waiting for any NHL method.... had a great MLB season thanks to similar systems. GL!
Posted using a mobile device.
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BBQGreggy send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#5
Posted: 10/6/2011 2:38:28 PM

Good Luck Johnny, I'm on both of them with ya!  Lets have a great hockey season!

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jonnymega send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jonnymega
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#6
Posted: 10/7/2011 9:30:51 AM
Thanks for following guys!




Should be an awesome year!

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jonnymega send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jonnymega
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#7
Posted: 10/7/2011 9:31:23 AM
10/07/11



Yesterday:

PIT +138  WIN
PHI +122  WIN

Record  2-0
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $1052.00
Current Unit    $21.04



Today's plays:


ANA +115
OTT +193

quote
jtmoney87 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#8
Posted: 10/7/2011 11:48:29 AM
Like this good luck bud!!!
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jonnymega send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jonnymega
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#9
Posted: 10/7/2011 12:22:45 PM
Thanks bro.

For those following, here's a spreadsheet that will be recording all plays in detail. Also, I put together a twitter for this system at twitter/jonnymegaNHL11 if anyone wants to follow that.


 
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jonnymega send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jonnymega
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#10
Posted: 10/8/2011 8:49:19 AM
10/08/11


Yesterday:

ANA +115  LOSS
OTT +193  LOSS

Record  2-2
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $1009.92
Current Unit    $20.20



Today's plays:


DAL +167
CLB +132
FLA +113



book

quote
jonnymega send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jonnymega
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#11
Posted: 10/9/2011 11:04:16 AM
10/09/11


Yesterday:

DAL +167  LOSS
CLB +132 
LOSS
FLA +113
  WIN

Record  3-4
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $992.35
Current Unit    $19.85



Today's plays:


MTL +105




book
quote
jonnymega send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jonnymega
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#12
Posted: 10/10/2011 9:16:09 AM
10/10/11


Yesterday:

MTL +105  WIN

Record  4-4
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $1013.19
Current Unit    $20.26



Today's plays:


CGY +123
PHO +121
TB +148


book

quote
JoshLewis send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
JoshLewis
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#13
Posted: 10/10/2011 8:53:44 PM
amigo, i strongly suggest to make a backtesting. how was last season? you can backtest by covers/wagerline.
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jonnymega send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#14
Posted: 10/11/2011 9:09:00 AM
Thanks, Josh. Backtesting is difficult because these are not blind picks. Originally, I had considered just fading the top 3 consensus picks and playing those blind everyday. Instead, I've been looking for the dogs with the best value and best chance of winning. It's probably not to late to switch over to blind picks... I surmise the outcome will probably be about the same either way ...


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jonnymega send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jonnymega
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#15
Posted: 10/11/2011 12:42:50 PM
10/11/11


Yesterday:


CGY +123  LOSS
PHO +121  LOSS
TB +148  LOSS

Record  4-7
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $952.41
Current Unit    $19.05



Today's plays:


No plays


quote
jonnymega send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jonnymega
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#16
Posted: 10/12/2011 10:03:12 AM
10/12/11


Yesterday:

No plays

Record  4-7
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $952.41
Current Unit    $19.05



Today's plays:


COL +125


book
quote
jonnymega send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jonnymega
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#17
Posted: 10/13/2011 1:40:43 PM
10/13/11


Yesterday:

COL +125  WINNER

Record  4-7
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $952.41
Current Unit    $19.05



Today's plays:


CGY +116
PHO +124
WIN +174


book
quote
jonnymega send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jonnymega
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#18
Posted: 10/13/2011 1:42:43 PM
Here's the updated record to go with the post above - my bad:


Record  5-7
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $976.22
Current Unit    $19.52



quote
jonnymega send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jonnymega
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#19
Posted: 10/14/2011 10:08:02 AM
10/14/11


Yesterday:

CGY +116  WIN
PHO +124 
WIN
WIN +174
   LOSS

Record  7-8
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $1003.39
Current Unit    $20.07



Today's plays:


CAR +165



book

quote
georugby send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#20
Posted: 10/14/2011 11:32:00 AM

Early observation:

Weestern conference:

Overall - 3-8

Range (+100 @ +150): 3-4

Range over +150: 0-1

 

Eastern Conference:

4-3 overall

Range (+100 @ +150): 4-1

Range over +150: 0-2

Kinda interesting!

quote
jonnymega send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#21
Posted: 10/14/2011 11:41:09 AM
nice perspective, georugby! cool
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Lippsman
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#22
Posted: 10/14/2011 11:17:47 PM
What consensus are you fading ?  Covers consensus ?  Fading money line movement ?
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jonnymega send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#23
Posted: 10/15/2011 11:27:31 AM
Hi Lippsman. I always check out your daily NHL thread. Thanks for that.




Yes, these plays fade the covers consensus. I basically pick and choose from there. The theory behind this is that the plays with the highest discrepancy in consensus will offer the highest value dogs (because everyone's hammering the favorite).




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jonnymega send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jonnymega
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#24
Posted: 10/15/2011 11:30:56 AM
10/15/11


Yesterday:

CAR +165  WIN


Record  8-8
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $1036.51
Current Unit    $20.73



Today's plays:


BOS +124
EDM +138
LAK +125
MIN +125



book

quote
jonnymega send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
jonnymega
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#25
Posted: 10/16/2011 8:53:23 AM
10/16/11


Yesterday:


BOS +124  WIN
EDM +138  LOSS
LAK +125  WIN
MIN +125
  LOSS


Record  10-10
Starting Bank $1000.00
Current Bank  $1047.41
Current Unit    $20.95



Today's plays:


No plays



book

quote
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