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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NBA Road Chase
smdio send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
smdio
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#1
Posted: 10/27/2010 7:33:29 AM

The system I'll be following in this thread is basically a combination of all the JM chase's (v1, v2, v3) that are out there.  The rules are:

1.) Play any team going on a 3-game or more road trip.  Play on the road team for the first 3 games of the trip.

2.) -Always- buy 3 points for the road team.  Never wager on the ML, even if the team is favored.

3.) Avoid the bottom 3 road teams after 20 games, and do not bet against the top 3 home teams after 20 games.

4.) Use an aggressive Labourechere system to recover losses, instead of Martingale

 

I'll start with a simple line of 25's for my Labby:

25-25-25-25

25-25-25-25

25-25-25-25

 

First bets 10/27

(A) Sacramento +7 (-170) $85 to win $50

(A) Portland -1/2 (-170) $85 to win $50

 

Anyone willing to tail is welcome.  I'll document ever wager in this thread on a daily basis, and the thread will be updated every morning.

Any questions, just ask.  Best of luck

 

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#2
Posted: 10/27/2010 9:38:06 AM
Just be careful. You have included a version that has not been tested to the best of my knowledge. 

v1 is against all teams from opposite conference
v2 is against 2 out of 3 from opposite conerence
v3 is against all in same conference
I guess the v4 you would be including would be against 2 out of 3 in same conference. From what I've read this is not currently a tested system OR it has been tested by F-Face (JM) himself and there were too many holes (L's) in it. I love the idea of using all three as it will make more loot using the Labby than just choosing one of the systems. But until you or someone else tests the results of 2 out of 3 against same conference, I would not do it. Just looking out for you.
Cheers
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#3
Posted: 10/27/2010 11:46:14 AM
Jokeheads just tested "v4" (against 2 out of 3 vs same conf) and it tested great 3 out of last 4 years with one hiccup 3 yrs ago (4 losses) which would've still won with the Labb.

So...now that's that!

Playing with Labb, play ANY 3 game Road Trip and win!
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#4
Posted: 10/27/2010 11:55:58 AM

Yeah sorry I responded late

I back tested it myself, by hand, and it took a couple weeks to do.  I did the past 3 years, as anything before that is too old (in my opinion)

Results were very positive, only 3 losses at most for any of the years.  A Labby system will make tons and tons of cash

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#5
Posted: 10/27/2010 12:59:45 PM

Hey SMD, I'll be on this thread with ya all season. Are you going AJM as well? I have read it basically has the same results as JM, err, F-Face, system. And you do NOT buy points.  Whats your take?

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#6
Posted: 10/27/2010 1:06:55 PM
thanks for tracking all road series
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cappernyc
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#7
Posted: 10/27/2010 1:11:48 PM
sac+7 and port+.5 it is
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#8
Posted: 10/27/2010 1:24:19 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by cappernyc:

sac+7 and port+.5 it is

That's incorrect.  Portland should be something like - 1/2.  If you got them with points, congrats!  Just making sure you're on the right game..

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#9
Posted: 10/27/2010 1:25:18 PM
I just looked through sahlsa's nba sched spreadsheet. 

Without playing second 3-game series on a road trip (i.e. 6-game roadie playing second 3 games as another trip) there are 153 3-game Road Trips. If you filter out the teams making their 1st road trip of the season (Min, Por, Sac, Tor), you get 149 series' to play!!! You can get greedy and play those 4 as well, but there is a reason that is a filter. I know either last year or 2yrs ago there was a loss right off the get go.

Now some of these will be filtered out due to worst road record (to not play on) or best home record (to not play against). But with that many series we should welcome the filters.

Also...if you do play a second 3-game series off the same road trip (i.e. 6-game RT) you will add some more plays (probably 5-7 more series). Heck, the Clips have an 11-GAME ROAD TRIP THIS YEAR! I believe the system says to play these games as a second series on the same road trip, but I could use some clarification.

Based on what I see using the filters to begin the season, the first plays is:

Nov. 2 Memphis @ LAL


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#10
Posted: 10/27/2010 1:31:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bettor2win:

Hey SMD, I'll be on this thread with ya all season. Are you going AJM as well? I have read it basically has the same results as JM, err, F-Face, system. And you do NOT buy points.  Whats your take?

Don't you think AJM will interfer with this system?  If not, then yeah I'll consider doing that as well

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#11
Posted: 10/27/2010 1:35:10 PM
I am tempted to play Sac and Por as well even though they are filtered out.

I am curious as to the AJM system along with Bettor2win. Man if that wins against all these systems without buying points...why not play both. 
So you lose an A bet on one system which makes you go to the B bet on that system, but you just won on the other system! Then you pick up the B bet win or go to the C and pick it up.

Has anyone backtested the AJM vs ALL of these versions/road trips? If so, what is the record the last couple yrs?

Hmm...
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#12
Posted: 10/27/2010 1:51:10 PM

Just make sure you use proper money management.  You need to only do a portion of your bankroll, especially to start.  An early loss could really hurt you, if you're not careful.

I'm curious as to if you can use both Anti-JM as well as JM v1/v2/v3 simultaneously. 

Won't the bets interfere with each other at some point?  It's really messy in my head right now..

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#13
Posted: 10/27/2010 2:11:01 PM
smitler backtested it last year. his numbers are on another thread here. ajm & jm had same numers.
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#14
Posted: 10/27/2010 2:14:17 PM
Right I understand that, but would the bets interfere with each other and cancel out profits?
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#15
Posted: 10/27/2010 2:15:31 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by smdio:

Don't you think AJM will interfer with this system?  If not, then yeah I'll consider doing that as well

the ideal way to do jm and anti jm is to do them both on different servers.  like do jm on matchbook and anti-jm on bet jam.

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#16
Posted: 10/27/2010 2:29:35 PM

But whenever you win an Anti-JM play, you also lost a JM play.  That would put you even.  You would then still continue on with the (B) series of the JM play, which would put you 1 unit ahead. 

Wouldn't this be exactly the same as only playing 1 system and not both against each other?

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#17
Posted: 10/27/2010 2:33:01 PM
No they won't mathematically interfere with each other. You can win at both as long as the AJM has been tested against ALL 3-game Road Trips! Which I do not think anyone has done that.

smdio...think about it this way. By buying points on one team and playing regular spread on the other, you can win both series on A bet alone!

Not only that, if you win A bet buying the points and lose the AJM A bet while not buying pts, you then are no longer betting the JM team buying the pts - you are now only chasing your B bet for them to NOT cover the regular spread and when the B or C bet wins you would have a double-profit from EVERY SERIES..

Again, it would take someone to test AJM against ALL 3-game roadies for it to be safe. If the numbers are close to F-Face (JM) results, then it is an AMAZING discovery - two systems that work against each other, but both consistently WIN.

1.21 JIGAWATTS!!!!!!!!!!!!
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#18
Posted: 10/27/2010 2:45:20 PM

Sorry to be quizical, but what exactly is the AJM system?  Just bet completely opposite of JM version 1?  And do not buy any points?

If this is the case, when would the first series play be?

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#19
Posted: 10/27/2010 3:04:05 PM
I'm with you. From what I understand the AJM is play opposite the team on the 3-game RT and do not buy pts. What I don't know is if the AJM works for all 3 (now 4) versions (which in essence as we've figured out is ANY 3-game RT) of the F-Face (JM) systems, or if it is only for the v1 system.  
If we knew the answer to this last question of does the AJM work against ALL 3-game RT's, then we would potentially have a small little pot of gold in our hands.

You could then create yet another system out of these two where you wait til one of them wins, then go larger on the other system as it is historically probably going to win. Then it would also only be a 2-game chaser.
Only drawback here is that while you are waiting to see which one wins, you could miss a series completely by the A bet winning for both systems. I think that'd be rare and okay in my opinion.
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#20
Posted: 10/27/2010 3:05:07 PM
Here we go.

Why do we need to but 3 points. What juice do people pay for that?
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#21
Posted: 10/27/2010 3:05:46 PM

I'm still unsure as to how this would be double profits

Let me use an example:

(I know these teams are unrealistic, but so what, it's just an example)

Miami Heat      @  Boston Celtics

                      @   Chicago Bulls

                      @   L.A. Lakers

Spread on Heat/Celtics  -7 Celtics

Spread on Heat/Bulls   -5 Heat

Spread on Heat/Lakers   -5 Lakers

JM System:  (A) bet on Heat (+10)  buying 3 points

Anti-JM:   (A) bet on Celtics (-7)  buying zero points

Final score:  Heat 90     Celtics  84

JM System:  Win  + 1 unit

Anti-JM:  Loss   - 1 unit

 

Continueing with the Anti-JM for Heat/Bulls

JM System:  No bet due to (A) win

Anti-JM:  (B) bet on Bulls +5 (buying zero points)

Final score:   Heat 90  Bulls 95

JM System:  No bet to to (A) win

Anti-JM:  (B) win on Bulls   =   +1 unit

 

At the end of the day, you're still up just 1 unit.  As a matter of fact, you'll be down money due to the juice involved with point buying.  The only way you can play these systems against each other, is if you win both of the (A) bets, which is most likely extremely rare.  That would be the JM system play would have to win because of the 3-point buy that you originally made, which according to my records happens about 5-10 times per year.  That wouldn't be enough to make up for the loss in juice

Correct me if I'm wrong...?

 

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#22
Posted: 10/27/2010 3:07:14 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Jokeheads:

Here we go.

Why do we need to but 3 points. What juice do people pay for that?

Without buying the 3 points, you would have to add about 5-10 losses per year to your tally.  The line is usually -170 after buying 3 points, compared to -110 as it normally is

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#23
Posted: 10/27/2010 3:18:48 PM

smdio,

i think the advantage comes with the agressive labby set up and that's where the profits come in.  On your B win you've recoupped your a losses on AJM + 1 unit and you have 1 unit alread on the JM....therefor 2 Units profit.

At least that's how I understand it

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#24
Posted: 10/27/2010 3:31:31 PM

you'd be running 3 lines for JM

and 3 lines for AJM

with the potential of winning on both of them with each series. If we had proof of this working on all series like LSU says it could be great.

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#25
Posted: 10/27/2010 3:34:08 PM
Yes oilcountry99.

If you play both systems on the Labb, the Labb helps you make the extra ca$h on the next bet.

If you lost on the AJM A bet, your losses drop to the B bet line so your bet is higher on that B bet. Thence when that wins you make more units...and double your profits.

Depending on what the results are from checking out AJM vs v3 (all games vs same conf) and v4 (2 of 3 vs same conf), I would seriously think about using Martingale on the AJM. Someone posted the results for AJM going against v1 and v2 and they came up 80-2 last year. Without the crazy juice - Martingale that ALL DAY!
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