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Author: [Pro Football] Topic: Houston at New England (12/10/2012)
richycox send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#51
Posted: 12/10/2012 2:10:46 AM
Best bets must have an emotional tie to Houston. All this talk about Houston being great. Wasn't the 49ers so dam great last year winning and covering like 9 weeks in a row?  Houston did win a lot but did they also cover a lot?

Sorry back on topic. Both teams has won 6 straight. 
Texans are 4-2 ATS with losses from Det and jax (odd)
Patriots are 3-3 ATS with losses from Miami, buffalo, and jets

They last met at Houston in 2010 and texans were favored by -7
Flash forward 2012.  Houston still has the same QB, same Main RB and WR.  Patriots has the same QB and that's about it.  RB are different and WR group changed.  NE will play vs a familiar match up while Houston will play vs a group not too familiar.
As of today this looks like a classic offense vs defense.  You can win games with a great offense but you win championships with defense.

Patriots will have a gameplan for Houston. They will strike early and Houston will try to catch back up but come short.  Houston will learn a lot with a loss here.  Houston doesn't do well versus great passing QB.  Look at games at GB and Detroit (maybe chad henne too?) and a rusty Peyton manning.  Why in these games the QB did so well?  Now it's Tom Brady at home with a small chalk. Nothing is 100% in betting but you can always play the trends. 

NE -4
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#52
Posted: 12/10/2012 3:16:34 AM
First time I'll be hedging a bet ever. Have a 6 team parlary with HOU +3.5 finishing it off. 

However, I really think I took the wrong side here. 

I'm either going to be greedy and hope for luck on NE- ML @ 1.50 odds and hope for 1-3 pt win to win both bets.  Or have to buy down the spread to -3.5 @1.83 odds. ahhhhh sh.hit.

Either way I'm kicking myself.  Will rack my brain at work to make sense of what I should do. 

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#53
Posted: 12/10/2012 4:43:16 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gastown:

First time I'll be hedging a bet ever. Have a 6 team parlary with HOU +3.5 finishing it off. 

However, I really think I took the wrong side here. 

I'm either going to be greedy and hope for luck on NE- ML @ 1.50 odds and hope for 1-3 pt win to win both bets.  Or have to buy down the spread to -3.5 @1.83 odds. ahhhhh sh.hit.

Either way I'm kicking myself.  Will rack my brain at work to make sense of what I should do. 


Funny, cuz I'm in hedge situation this week too (was just in one last week which worked out amazing. Had Nyg +3.5 as last leg of my teaser card, and so I hedged with Washington ML and they won by a point, as I expected and so cashed in on both bets.)

I also hit a 6 team parlay today paid 50 for 1 but I am hedging with houston even though I dont feel they will  win, I am still thinking of hedging with the money line. Because I feel either patriots will lose the game outright, or if they do win I think they will cover. So, it looks like either Houston ML for me..although doing the spread can win both bets...so now I'm in the same situation as you are...but on opposite side..lol
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#54
Posted: 12/10/2012 4:45:17 AM
So in other words if I was you, I would hedge evenly and do NE on the spread
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Dinitalian
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#55
Posted: 12/10/2012 4:48:41 AM
Guys why stress and take a side you know the type of game it will be!!!!! Noone is kicking anyone's butt! Someone will kick and field and win that's what it is!
The safest thing you can do is take the over and be more relaxe! Seriously secondary here on both team will get abused!! Texas last three games have allowed over 450 yards and patriots well very similar!! But both front defensive lines can stop a run and are ranked very high at doing so!!!

Air game time for both QBs here fellows!!!

31-30 if your final whoever ends up with the ball in the last seconds if the game and on top if it be prepared for some OT just on case!!! Then you'll get your texans cover!!!
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#56
Posted: 12/10/2012 6:07:52 AM
Tease:
Houston +10
Over 45

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#57
Posted: 12/10/2012 6:26:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace:

I will take the Patriots at home laying 3 to any team in the NFL, even against the 11-1 Texans. The one loss the Texans suffered all year was against the Green Bay Packers. They probably should have lost to the Lions as well. They also once let Chad Henne go absolutely nuts on them about a month ago. The Texans achilles heel is their pass defense (ranking 19th in the league). If JJ Swat isn't batting them down, the odds are that pass is getting completed. I think you can attribute this to Jonathan Joseph being out for such a big chunk of the year. He is listed as questionable, but I'm not sure if he will be a 100% either way. 

The Texans are an impressive 6-0 on the road this year. Its so tough to win on the road in this league, especially at New England. The Pats haven't lost at home since that fluke game against Arizona in week 2. I think Belicheck will have his defense ready to stop the Texans offense that relies primarily on the playaction. The playaction is really only effective when a team is running the ball well. I think the Pat's 9th ranked rush defense will come to play in a Monday night setting, and that Houston might find themselves in 3rd and long situations quite a bit on Monday night.  

My prediction is the Patriots hand the Texans their first road loss, and that Belicheck tries to send a message like he did to the Colts earlier this year. He definitely likes big statement wins over teams that he will possibly see again in the playoffs. Obviously, I don't think this will be a huge blowout. But it wouldn't shock me if the Pats won this by 13 or more points.    

Not too often you can get the Pats -3 at home without the public being all over them!! I will be more than happy to bet New England for my first time this season. 

Good luck!


Finally, someone spreadin real insights.....while you jerkboys are tugawarin' with Brady's DingDong, my mans Ace actually spitin knowledge. Wha...did he say BELICHEK....wha did he say  BELICHEK STATEMENTS...wha he said Belicheck statements MNF national stage statement.
vs Colts this year--- agreed statement made. Back to back 50burgers--statement statement. vs Miami #1 Run Def.... statement with run lopsided play calling... Brady is just a robot, it's been proven already that even Matt Cassel the worst starting QB will look great....KC ownership will tell you it ain't QB talent it's Belicheck outcompeting his opposing counterpart. Oh and NE is ranked #1 in defense.....unless you a smuck that puts yards allowed above FF, 3rd/redzone performance, INTs. J.J. Watt can't impact games vs 5 man cohesive single O-line unit. That O-line looks like the oldschool sterio equalizer presets.  Like 10 differents hands get put on every DL player on every play. If you ain't facin Belicheck 2 a year for the last decade, you ain't coverin a damn thing... and even then you lose by 40+ this year. This team was built to not miss a beat facing the injury bug as go 3-4 deep at all positions, but when you see Pat Chung out there Chungin fools you know their Def is healthiest as can be.
peep game Aceman http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestats2012 NE Def currently Major Adv of Houst.
...MNF Statement by Belichecky MostDef will be his NE def his new group that could even pee straight last year is now know on the door of Greatness....
While u chumps accept mainstream YDs allowed rankings criteria, I'll take these TO,FF,FR,INT, and REDZone criteria that put BELCHIK's unite on a whole nutha level.
Does nobody see where this D is going but me an ACE:
Think about it...
Jerod Mayo=Bruski, even LB Ted Johnson was a Nikovich LB before he lined up with is huge shoulder pads one Superbowl day as Belchick answer to stopping Curt Warners ridiculous offensive machine called 'the greatest show on turf'.

Even using conventional ranking criteria how good do you need to be to go from last play Def Ranks to top 10 over 5 weeks. Kubiak is the greatest West Coast Off Coach ever to emerge, but Belchick been stompin out the whole Walsh family tree for  decades now. Oh -4 will cover by 10 or more when adjusting for CB/LB injuries on Houst, TalebTye Law an already shut down corner has been Belichean School of Hard Knox for almost a month now which continually makes those those safteties more power run stopper forces, and finally the key core strength of Texans RBs of zone blocking cut back running sounds like a jokey joke vs NE.  yeah sure just chop blck on the backside for the cut back lane. Feeling sorry for these futile attempts to get VWilford on his behind, the refs let you cut block this fire hydrant bc he aint never going down and his legs just grind the back cutter into the NE turf. Image running over a dog....

Belichek MON NIGHT = extra night of preparing while opposing coaches lose more ground by sleeping another night....

AND bestoluck guy who pointed out Brady can't throw past 10 yards....is that even required in his job description. But those 'ducks' to Moss could one be called before the Offense crossed midfield and everytime the 'duck' forced Moss out that back endzone at full speed but never force him out. Belicheck milked the underneath 20+ yard completions for like 5 weeks off one of those ducks though.
NE 65 Hous 27 and Hous Def actually plays good enough to win.



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#58
Posted: 12/10/2012 7:30:08 AM
In this game there's a common thread of two very capable, efficient offenses.  

Houston's Defense has limited only the Offense's of the Ravens, Bear and Titans (in that order and not very impressive) . 

New England hasn't had a Quality Defensive Effort since October 28th (purposely leaving out Jets/Dolphins) . 

My Best guess is that they nose 54 in this one (Even though it'll be Mild, Wet and Humid in Foxboro)

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#59
Posted: 12/10/2012 9:27:57 AM
pats win this one at home wes is the key here pats 31 texans 24 brady 4 touchs and one fg texans will score same as with gb at best  gl all.
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#60
Posted: 12/10/2012 10:07:02 AM
2 solid clubs going at it. Should be a great matchup.

Both have sumthing to play for. Seems thins just might come down to last posession possibly and a winning fg.

taking the Texans here because of their road stat.

bol 2 all
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#61
Posted: 12/10/2012 10:35:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by RollSparty:

Over
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#62
Posted: 12/10/2012 10:49:32 AM
Let's get this money bgus!
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#63
Posted: 12/10/2012 11:48:06 AM

Let's keep last night's Lions "meaningless" spread killer field goal with 10 seconds left mojo going.....

Pats -2.5 & over 49.5

only pays +105, but what the hell - gives me a reason to watch the game

good luck everybody!!!!!!!!!!

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#64
Posted: 12/10/2012 12:25:07 PM
I think the Bet of the Year has been NE Over. Even tho the public nails it every week, it is still a great bet. They studied Oregon and Kelly's up-tempo offense this offseason, and it has shown in the totals, like Oregon. National Tv always increases the over chance especially with a big star like Brady.

Over-NE YTD 9-3
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#65
Posted: 12/10/2012 12:35:56 PM

IT'S 90% PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE WHOLE GAME!! BE CAREFULL OF THE OVER AND UNDER IN THIS GAME.. IT WILL BE WET!! BUT IT MIGHT NOT STILL SLOW THIS 2 TEAMS UP!! WHO KNOWS..BUT I THOUGHT I WOULD THROW THAT IN.. PLUS MIND LINE IS NEW ENGLAND -5.5 52... SOMEBODY IS PUTTING SOME GOOD MONEY ON NEW ENGLAND..

 

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#66
Posted: 12/10/2012 12:38:28 PM
all this talking on who wins lets first look at the weather report.Also houston is calling this one of there biggest games in franchise history which aint a lot to say.etc playoff game last year.brady is 4-0 on monday night and ats.tell you what this is my lock of the year.UNDER.BELICHEK WONT WANT TO GET INTO A SHOOTOUT TEXANS SEEM TO LIKE PLAYING SHOOTOUT GAMES.NEW ENGLAND KILLS THEM WITH TIME OF POSSESSION AND SHORT PASSES.THROW IN A LITTLE SLIPPERY TURF AND THAT TAKES AWAY HOUSTONS DEEP BALL.SO BOTH TEAMS ARE GONNA WANT TO KEEP EACH OTHERS OFFENSES OFF THE FIELD.LOVING THE UNDER
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#67
Posted: 12/10/2012 1:05:04 PM
Hou secondary weak. Good passing teams expose this. Their great pass rush will be exploited by quick strikes, slants, drags, draws, and slip screens. New eng can actually run the ball too!
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#68
Posted: 12/10/2012 1:14:17 PM
i will ride wit vegas on dis one....houston ml
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#69
Posted: 12/10/2012 1:32:13 PM
houston +5.5 
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#70
Posted: 12/10/2012 2:14:27 PM
Spread has risen to NE -5.5 so either you side with money or go with Vegas!  If it is smart money great, Sharps will be jumping for the middle.
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#71
Posted: 12/10/2012 2:20:39 PM
UNDER 52

 
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#72
Posted: 12/10/2012 2:38:35 PM
All I can say is this.  The line on Houston went from 3.5 to 5.5 in just a few hours?  You think they want Houston money?  Enough said.
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#73
Posted: 12/10/2012 2:51:46 PM
Defence wins games against 2 great teams. So I have to go with Houston here. They are also my personal favorites team, so I never bet real money on them. (Don't want to bet with emotions). I am worried about Houston's secondary, but I am thinking that their defensive line will dominate the Patriots offensive line and not give Brady the time he needs. If that doesn't happen, well......"Houston, we have a problem"
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#74
Posted: 12/10/2012 2:56:40 PM

Hugh Overnight Line Move!

In total shock!  Just saw line at 5.5!  Went from 3.5 to 4, to 4.5, to 5, then to 5.5 overnight!  Why?  Don't know.  But massive line movement does "scare me" and "confuses me."  Something fishy going on around here, but will stick to my Texas guns.

 

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#75
Posted: 12/10/2012 3:02:54 PM
I agree with the thoughts on the over. In normal conditions this would be an excellent play. However, the weather is supposed to be pretty rough tonight. I am staying away from the total
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