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Author: [College Football] Topic: Bowling Green at Northern Illinois (12/06/2013)
degengambler34 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Mandalay Bay |
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#26
Posted: 12/6/2013 1:09:23 AM
I'm not betting bowling green cause "everyones on NIU". Im betting them because the strength of this team is on the defensive side of the ball, it's legit, and youll find out tomorrow how legit. 
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#27
Posted: 12/6/2013 1:16:46 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by degengambler34:

I'm not betting bowling green cause "everyones on NIU". Im betting them because the strength of this team is on the defensive side of the ball, it's legit, and youll find out tomorrow how legit. 
Agreed on the BGSU defense being the better of the two.  NIU's defense is highly suspect, too.
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#28
Posted: 12/6/2013 4:56:20 AM
NIU all the ways. 
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#29
Posted: 12/6/2013 7:45:53 AM
Doc turnin on all his boys!! Sorry son! B green been solid all year. One play away from beating being undefeated in Mac play. They are the more dominant team especially defensively. Smoka bowl of green and ov for the large!!!
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#30
Posted: 12/6/2013 8:11:47 AM
Game is on turf, BG has the D but does the turf favor NIU's O or BG's D? Or is it a wash?
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#31
Posted: 12/6/2013 9:00:10 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DrDogs:

Doc turnin on all his boys!! Sorry son! B green been solid all year. One play away from beating being undefeated in Mac play. They are the more dominant team especially defensively. Smoka bowl of green and ov for the large!!!

Solid all year? lol they lost to the only 3 good teams they played - Miss St, Tol and Ind.  No way they keep up with the rushing attack of NIU.  Take the over for fun.
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#32
Posted: 12/6/2013 10:36:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BIGHACK_99:


Solid all year? lol they lost to the only 3 good teams they played - Miss St, Tol and Ind.  No way they keep up with the rushing attack of NIU.  Take the over for fun.

You couldn't have said it any better BIGHACK 99! Everyone is jumping on the BG defensive bandwagon. Sure their defensive stats look pretty damn good on paper, but BIGHACK said all that matters. The only somewhat good teams they've played, THEY LOST! They have good "D" stats against terrible MAC teams. OFFENSE wins this game, and big... !
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#33
Posted: 12/6/2013 10:37:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lordzud:

Line has moved to -3.5 NIU so I'm glad I got my bet in before it moved. An interesting resource for bettors is Sports Insights which claims to have the percentages of betters on each side of every game. The NIU Bowling Green game shows 85% of the betters on NIU. I must add that I am extremely skeptical of the information provided by Sports Insights is useful statistical information. It is not that I suspect this company of outright lying, what I am very suspicious of is that the books would assist in giving out information that would give gamblers any kind of an edge. The books will never ever divulge where the sharp money is going, what information they give to this company Sports Insights is just enough information to tease betters into thinking "aha! now I have an angle that can make me money so now I can bet!" I see lots and lots of betters talking the Sports Insights lingo around here. Comments like "everyone is betting on NIU so I'm betting on Bowling Green" is what I mean. Now having said all that there are real sports insights at the company called Sports Insights. There is a 1 to 3 percent edge in betting the underdog and the under because the public shades betting the opposite way. But all this yammer "it's a trap!" or ignorant speculation on how Vegas is secretly manipulating behind the scenes to chisel you out of more money. It's silly, owning a book is like owning a flock of golden geese that plop out a 5% profit on every bet placed. They don't need traps within this trap, they are already making a fortune. If you were already a multi,multi millionaire would you risk it all by breaking the law? Just look at the teams playing, look at the spread, and place your bet.

We'll said my friend. Anyone who talks of game rigging and Vegas pulling tricks is a major tard. 
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#34
Posted: 12/6/2013 11:12:38 AM
Ahhh the haters are hatin! Hate makes the doc STRONG!!!! Eyyyyyyyy
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#35
Posted: 12/6/2013 11:47:13 AM

oh DOC!!!!!

In the last 4 Bowling Green has played 1-2 quality opponents (Ohio and a semi good Buffalo)  Don't think Im saying Buffalo isn't good.  but in that game playing at Ralph Wilson, I think the kids spent too much energy on the ProStadium hype.  We see it every year, a home team plays in an arena or against an opponent and too much mojo is spent in the locker room and not on the field.  Buffalo/BG was that game.       EMU and M-OH are chumps.  fantastic stats always get a big boost when playing against teams that cant find the endzone anyway (112 & 125 in scoring respectively).  Last week the Falcons were in a must win situation to make tonight's game relevant.  Its not the NCAA basketball tournament where you can ride a 3-4 game weekly high, its really hard to maintain that "Cinderella" mentality from week to week in football.

For the year, BG has just one win over a team in the conference with a +.500 conference record.  (maybe two - just glanced at them)      So of course their D looks solid on paper.       NILL has 3 conf wins over teams with +.500 record and then tack on some FBS wins.

The line bumping up doesn't bother me at all.  Just a stereotypical example of public $ coming in because of the Huskies notoriety, NOT because of analysis (but hey, im public $ too )

 

As far as the total goes, BG's OVERS were achieved in games where they did 90% of the scoring.  They will not be allowed to hammer the NIU D line enough to match that effort.  NILL just starts off so slow and methodical.  Bang the line, Bang the line, Bang the line...then the wear down allows them to bust open some wounds in the 2nd half.

No injuries listed seem to concern me, any OUTS mentioned are "no new news" to me.

NILL -chalk, and UNDER

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#36
Posted: 12/6/2013 11:58:43 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by AmazingMoves:

Every one is suckin NIU's pen.  Everyone has handed them a BCS spot already. They start off terribly in games.  Their defense I suspect.  Their best receiver by far is injured.  

Bowling Green has a great defense and has been destroying teams down the stretch.  Including a tough victory on the road against Buffalo.  They are being completely disrespected.  They score 35 a game.  I see them jumping out early and stuffing Jordan lynch.  They will beat NIU in convincing fashion.


Great Defense?  Michigan State has a "Great Defense"
Jordan Lynch is just too much for any MAC opponent.
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#37
Posted: 12/6/2013 12:15:18 PM
oh god... vegas is gonna lose millionsss tonite for havin N Ill initiate at 2.5 fav.
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#38
Posted: 12/6/2013 12:35:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by DrDogs:

Ahhh the haters are hatin! Hate makes the doc STRONG!!!! Eyyyyyyyy

no hate, no hate. The Zud, the Lord of all Zudness will gladly take your money. Eyyyyyyyyyyyooooowwwww. Thats the sound you'll be making when The Lynch unleashes his might upon his next victim, the Bowling Pins of Bowling Green and your bank account. 

Forsooth, Yea Verily, It is written. 
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#39
Posted: 12/6/2013 12:37:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lordzud:

Line has moved to -3.5 NIU so I'm glad I got my bet in before it moved. An interesting resource for bettors is Sports Insights which claims to have the percentages of betters on each side of every game. The NIU Bowling Green game shows 85% of the betters on NIU. I must add that I am extremely skeptical of the information provided by Sports Insights is useful statistical information. It is not that I suspect this company of outright lying, what I am very suspicious of is that the books would assist in giving out information that would give gamblers any kind of an edge. The books will never ever divulge where the sharp money is going, what information they give to this company Sports Insights is just enough information to tease betters into thinking "aha! now I have an angle that can make me money so now I can bet!" I see lots and lots of betters talking the Sports Insights lingo around here. Comments like "everyone is betting on NIU so I'm betting on Bowling Green" is what I mean. Now having said all that there are real sports insights at the company called Sports Insights. There is a 1 to 3 percent edge in betting the underdog and the under because the public shades betting the opposite way. But all this yammer "it's a trap!" or ignorant speculation on how Vegas is secretly manipulating behind the scenes to chisel you out of more money. It's silly, owning a book is like owning a flock of golden geese that plop out a 5% profit on every bet placed. They don't need traps within this trap, they are already making a fortune. If you were already a multi,multi millionaire would you risk it all by breaking the law? Just look at the teams playing, look at the spread, and place your bet.



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#40
Posted: 12/6/2013 1:03:18 PM
DECEMBER 1,2013 THRU DECEMBER 31,2014
DECEMBER 2013 3-1-1
12/1/13 NCAAB OREGON STATE +3 L 0-1
12/2/13 NCAAB LOYOLA MARY. -4 PUSH 0-1-1
12/3/13 NCAAB Massachusetts  -6 W 1-1-1
12/4/13  NCAAB WISCONSIN +4 W 2-1-1
12/5/13 NCAAB RIDER -3 W  3-1-1
12/6/13 NCAAF NORTHERN ILLINOIS -3

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#41
Posted: 12/6/2013 1:11:29 PM
Just got line from my local at -6
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#42
Posted: 12/6/2013 1:37:37 PM
Line dropped back down to -3. If I was a Bowling Green better I would definitely have waited till today and placed my bet today. They did, last week the line moved late against NIU when it became known that they had their two best receivers out for the game, and the weather took away the passing game. Don't get all worked up in a kerfluffle imagining evil doers manipulating you into losing money when the line moves. eat, drink, and be merry. Someone said it somewhere, NIU verses MAC opponents, bet on NIU. NIU in a BCS bowl, fade em.
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#43
Posted: 12/6/2013 1:55:26 PM

I am a long time reader, first time poster.  I have been gambling for a long time and when I see this type of line movement (from -4.5 to -3) in less than an hour and against a public high flying team, you know that serios money is on BG.  NO BRAINER!

I bet some at +4.5 and doubled up at +3....

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#44
Posted: 12/6/2013 2:00:04 PM
Why is the consensus think this game will go over 58 pts?  BGSU is nasty on defense.  The last minute to the  Ball St. Vs NIU game total was all B_llsh_t.  NIU played dirty.  Instead of taking a knee, J Lynch decided to pad his stats.  I think BGSU's D will show up to play tonight.
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#45
Posted: 12/6/2013 2:02:52 PM

Going with Bowling Green + the points.

BOWLING GREEN  

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#46
Posted: 12/6/2013 2:04:40 PM
Hate hate don't take the dollars. Dammit boy!!!!
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#47
Posted: 12/6/2013 2:05:46 PM
Yes, NIU will going to win for BCS bids!

BGSU 25 NIU 65 Final
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#48
Posted: 12/6/2013 2:09:28 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lordzud:

Line dropped back down to -3. If I was a Bowling Green better I would definitely have waited till today and placed my bet today. They did, last week the line moved late against NIU when it became known that they had their two best receivers out for the game, and the weather took away the passing game. Don't get all worked up in a kerfluffle imagining evil doers manipulating you into losing money when the line moves. eat, drink, and be merry. Someone said it somewhere, NIU verses MAC opponents, bet on NIU. NIU in a BCS bowl, fade em.

NIU vs. Toledo line opened @3 and at game time around 1.  We all know what happened in the 2nd half?  Sticking with the machine that got me here - NIU!!
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#49
Posted: 12/6/2013 2:39:50 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by lordzud:

Line has moved to -3.5 NIU so I'm glad I got my bet in before it moved. An interesting resource for bettors is Sports Insights which claims to have the percentages of betters on each side of every game. The NIU Bowling Green game shows 85% of the betters on NIU. I must add that I am extremely skeptical of the information provided by Sports Insights is useful statistical information. It is not that I suspect this company of outright lying, what I am very suspicious of is that the books would assist in giving out information that would give gamblers any kind of an edge. The books will never ever divulge where the sharp money is going, what information they give to this company Sports Insights is just enough information to tease betters into thinking "aha! now I have an angle that can make me money so now I can bet!" I see lots and lots of betters talking the Sports Insights lingo around here. Comments like "everyone is betting on NIU so I'm betting on Bowling Green" is what I mean. Now having said all that there are real sports insights at the company called Sports Insights. There is a 1 to 3 percent edge in betting the underdog and the under because the public shades betting the opposite way. But all this yammer "it's a trap!" or ignorant speculation on how Vegas is secretly manipulating behind the scenes to chisel you out of more money. It's silly, owning a book is like owning a flock of golden geese that plop out a 5% profit on every bet placed. They don't need traps within this trap, they are already making a fortune. If you were already a multi,multi millionaire would you risk it all by breaking the law? Just look at the teams playing, look at the spread, and place your bet.

Mr. Zud.. I agree....and I would like to add a perspective to your insights.... I think Vegas is a speculator.  like I said before, they have the playbook of every games especially in the NFL.  I think the reason why sometime the public got burned because coaches do use odd against them to motivate the team to prepare more intensely.  this theory doesn't seem to work on teams with weak leadership or they not riding any momentum.  furthermore, if the media and public thinks that your team is going to lose BIG, and you do.  then your job is at risk.  this is probably the reason why huge dogs mostly covered, and 4-5 pts dogs get blown. I read Covers to get stats, but I half of the time I use situations.   tonight for instance, if N Ill is fav by 6-7 pt,, I will take them.  Scrambling QB is what I like..  Lynch have been running through holes and no one seem to give credit for his O linemen (Lynch will watch these guys play on Sunday).  I notice that N Ill's methotology is to bang bang bang the defensive line to cause damage and eventually those holes open up.  again, thanks to his linemen.  and I think BG are able to show resistance of closin some of those holes tonight. if this is probably most lines open at 3. GL to all. 

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#50
Posted: 12/6/2013 2:52:31 PM

Dear Zud.... house (vegas) pays 20% to their bookies.  for example, if you lose 110.  bookie get 22. house get 88, but they pay you 100.

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