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Author: [College Football] Topic: Rutgers at South Florida (11/03/2010)
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#1
Posted: 10/31/2010 4:26:01 AM

Away:  Texas El Paso [5-7 ATS]
Home:  Brigham Young [7-5 ATS]

Game Time: 2:00 PM
Stadium: University Stadium

Recent Meetings:
11/14/98 - BYU 31 vs. UTEP 14
11/01/97 - BYU 3 vs. UTEP 14
11/02/96 - UTEP 18 vs. BYU 40

Team Leaders:

Texas El Paso:
Passing: Trevor Vittatoe (2511)
Rushing: Joseph Banyard (612)
Receiving: Kris Adams (917)

Brigham Young:
Passing: Jake Heaps (2052)
Rushing: J.J. Di Luigi (819)
Receiving: J.J. Di Luigi (422)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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#2
Posted: 11/1/2010 12:27:39 AM
under............
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#3
Posted: 11/1/2010 12:55:26 AM
Rutgers
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#4
Posted: 11/1/2010 1:45:28 AM
Both inept offenses, I see a low scoring game . 9pts is a lot for S Fl to cover IMO.
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#5
Posted: 11/1/2010 8:13:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by phancard:

Both inept offenses, I see a low scoring game . 9pts is a lot for S Fl to cover IMO.


agreed.   rutgers d is pretty decent.  
big letdown spot for USF.  
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#6
Posted: 11/1/2010 8:13:48 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ICEman83:

under............


dude there isn't even a total yet.   what if total comes out at like 35?
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#7
Posted: 11/1/2010 12:39:53 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by dalupus:



dude there isn't even a total yet.   what if total comes out at like 35?

Plus the fact that Rutgers last 3 games have gone over...& the fact that 68 was put up in SF last game...so why the UNDER?..it should open around 45-48 points....

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#8
Posted: 11/1/2010 5:05:30 PM
I am a long time reader of this forum but a new poster. Generally a dime player so don't bet a lot of games, just ones that through research seem a good bet, not always right of course and so far this year I have won 10 and lost 8 so a lot risked to make $120.00. I find 2 things fascinating about these threads. One is the posters who immediately put up "under" or "Rutgers" without even a single bit of reasoning, let alone hyperbole to go with their picks. I can't figure out why people do this, if you have a pick, say why, even if your logic is flawed, at least it lends some legitimacy to your post. The second item is the vast amount of information regarding the spreads, especially when they're below 4. Everyone buying down a 1/2 point here and there and have you ever really looked at how often the spread comes into play? It's not nearly as much as you'd think and you're really better off simply going with the team you think will win and betting them. Again, I'm not talking about huge spreads, just in the 4 to 6 range, do some research and you'll see they don't matter that often, especially in the Thursday night ESPN game with a home dog. 
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#9
Posted: 11/1/2010 7:09:23 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Hawaiianguy:

I am a long time reader of this forum but a new poster. Generally a dime player so don't bet a lot of games, just ones that through research seem a good bet, not always right of course and so far this year I have won 10 and lost 8 so a lot risked to make $120.00. I find 2 things fascinating about these threads. One is the posters who immediately put up "under" or "Rutgers" without even a single bit of reasoning, let alone hyperbole to go with their picks. I can't figure out why people do this, if you have a pick, say why, even if your logic is flawed, at least it lends some legitimacy to your post. The second item is the vast amount of information regarding the spreads, especially when they're below 4. Everyone buying down a 1/2 point here and there and have you ever really looked at how often the spread comes into play? It's not nearly as much as you'd think and you're really better off simply going with the team you think will win and betting them. Again, I'm not talking about huge spreads, just in the 4 to 6 range, do some research and you'll see they don't matter that often, especially in the Thursday night ESPN game with a home dog. 


Welcome to the threads my man.......I totally understand your points of view.  I think a lot of us early in the week jump on here and throw up a quick note of outcome or total......just because we can't wait to get on her and start the thread rolling.  I know that is how I am.  I may not say too much about why early in the week, but the games I feel very strongly about, I tend to get a little verbose.    Anyway, if you have been watching for a while, you know who the regulars are and who are the "good" folk you can have discussion with and even disagree with all in the name of fun, information gathering and different perspectives that help all who come on here to try to find a slight edge in their picks. 

I look forward to seeing what some of your takes are my friend.  As for this game, I think the over looks good right now.......just a gut reaction.  GL to you my man and we'll see you out here on the threads!
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#10
Posted: 11/1/2010 9:57:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by greeneyeddevils:

Plus the fact that Rutgers last 3 games have gone over...& the fact that 68 was put up in SF last game...so why the UNDER?..it should open around 45-48 points....

I was a little off ..it opened 41.5 I'm going OVER ....

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#11
Posted: 11/2/2010 2:12:20 AM
I like Rutgers here as well.. USF shouldn't be able to cover the 9.5 points..
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#12
Posted: 11/2/2010 11:03:28 AM
a month ago i probably would have been on the under for this game, but right now i'm leaning over. Dodd seems to have injected some life into the RU offense, and i'm sure both teams will have a few tricks up their sleeves to push this over.
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#13
Posted: 11/2/2010 12:57:02 PM
Dodd is questionable with an undisclosed injury.  I don't know if So. Fla will cover or not but not having your quarterback is not a good thing if he's the one "injecting life back into the RU offense".

Looking at this, So.Fla should cover and seems to have the better home offense.

Home/Away | In-Depth | Last 3 HA
Off Avg Yards Pass Rush Y/R Y/A
RUTG
SOFLA
20.0
30.8
187.5
339.0
102.0
179.8
85.5
159.2
2.3
4.2
5.4
8.0
Def Avg Yards Pass Rush Y/R Y/A
RUTG
SOFLA
27.5
10.5
442.0
270.8
255.5
150.8
186.5
120.0
5.0
3.2
8.5
5.7

Also gotta love the home teams on weekday games.  It seems that most of them cover when it's televised.
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#14
Posted: 11/2/2010 1:22:54 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Xyberz:

Dodd is questionable with an undisclosed injury. 

Undisclosed injury?! That's news to me; where did u hear that? Reports out of Rutgers is that he's starting; no injury.

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#15
Posted: 11/2/2010 4:08:49 PM

Just got Rutgers at +10.5.  They've played close games all year and have had good success against South Florida in recent years.  I lost a nice chunk on South Florida when I picked them against Syracuse and they put up an absolute stinker.  I know they have shown some improvement in the last couple of weeks, but I think Rutgers will keep it in single digits.  The Moneyline hasn't come out yet on my book, but I'm expecting something in the +250 range.  If that happens, I will probably lay something on the ML as well.  As for the injury to Dodd, I haven't heard anything.  If anyone has any legit info, let me know.  Also, in the case Dodd can't play, they do have a capable backup in Savage.

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#16
Posted: 11/2/2010 10:08:57 PM

I'm most likely taking Rutgers in this game.  Was on South Florida last week and they put together a great showing... This week I don't see it happening. 

More to come tomorrow.... but right now RU +10.5

-Don Bunchu

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#17
Posted: 11/2/2010 10:15:09 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Hawaiianguy:

I am a long time reader of this forum but a new poster. Generally a dime player so don't bet a lot of games, just ones that through research seem a good bet, not always right of course and so far this year I have won 10 and lost 8 so a lot risked to make $120.00. I find 2 things fascinating about these threads. One is the posters who immediately put up "under" or "Rutgers" without even a single bit of reasoning, let alone hyperbole to go with their picks. I can't figure out why people do this, if you have a pick, say why, even if your logic is flawed, at least it lends some legitimacy to your post. The second item is the vast amount of information regarding the spreads, especially when they're below 4. Everyone buying down a 1/2 point here and there and have you ever really looked at how often the spread comes into play? It's not nearly as much as you'd think and you're really better off simply going with the team you think will win and betting them. Again, I'm not talking about huge spreads, just in the 4 to 6 range, do some research and you'll see they don't matter that often, especially in the Thursday night ESPN game with a home dog. 

You are correct about the spread not mattering all that much....and pretty much for all spreads, not just the 4 to 6 range. More important to be able to pick the straight up winner, either the dog wins outright or the favorite rolls.....only around 22-25% of the time does the favorite win by less than the spread.

I haven't followed it lately but everytime I check this out it's around that 22-25 range.

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#18
Posted: 11/2/2010 10:40:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by oahuboy808:

I like Rutgers here as well.. USF shouldn't be able to cover the 9.5 points..


Glad to be on the same side bud.. Rugters +9.5 for me as well
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#19
Posted: 11/2/2010 11:14:49 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Xyberz:

Dodd is questionable with an undisclosed injury.  I don't know if So. Fla will cover or not but not having your quarterback is not a good thing if he's the one "injecting life back into the RU offense".

Looking at this, So.Fla should cover and seems to have the better home offense.

Home/Away | In-Depth | Last 3 HA
Off Avg Yards Pass Rush Y/R Y/A
RUTG
SOFLA
20.0
30.8
187.5
339.0
102.0
179.8
85.5
159.2
2.3
4.2
5.4
8.0
Def Avg Yards Pass Rush Y/R Y/A
RUTG
SOFLA
27.5
10.5
442.0
270.8
255.5
150.8
186.5
120.0
5.0
3.2
8.5
5.7


Also gotta love the home teams on weekday games.  It seems that most of them cover when it's televised.

Nice stats Brah!

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#20
Posted: 11/2/2010 11:26:37 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Fazool:

Undisclosed injury?! That's news to me; where did u hear that? Reports out of Rutgers is that he's starting; no injury.



Its on the covers injury report under Matchups.
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#21
Posted: 11/2/2010 11:27:53 PM

-10.5? I would have thought this to be in single digits unless vegas trying to get money on Rutgers and it looks like they are getting it. I have been strugling with my picks as of late because of not looking at the line history and opening. This line tells me that Dodd is more than likely not play. If I'm not mistaken, didn't he leave last game and Savage stepped in?

Early lean on USF.

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#22
Posted: 11/2/2010 11:58:16 PM
Hi Y'all,
Been a long-time visitor of this forum and decided to register so I can post questions to you experts.  I only started watching/betting on football a year ago and been getting paid for the last 4 weeks using my own research and this forum.

Enough said about that!  With the points that Ark St got over Mid Ten today, I'm leaning toward S. Florida.  I totally thought Ark St. and Mid Tenn were two very even teams but home does have advantage.  I like the stats Xyberz gave and I always thought a team's Defense is always stronger when they're at home because of the crowd.  Ark St's defense was a little impressive today.
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#23
Posted: 11/3/2010 12:24:01 AM

Here's some very interesting stats I'd like to share that I have found which solidifies my pick.

Rutgers ranks last (120th) in sacks allowed per game (4+) with a total of 33 in the season, 15 of which in the last 2 games.

USF on the other hand is tied for 9nth nationally for most sacks. I expect at least 6+ in this game as the offensive line will have some changes made by Schiano putting some defensive players on offense. Anytime a change occurs in the line up, there is always some getting used to the game plan and going up against a deffense that is ranked #9 in sacks, they better get used to it quickly.

Homework done and USF by 17+ points. Leaning on the over with USF covering most of it if not all.

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#24
Posted: 11/3/2010 12:26:29 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NEVERgo4less:

Hi Y'all,
Been a long-time visitor of this forum and decided to register so I can post questions to you experts.  I only started watching/betting on football a year ago and been getting paid for the last 4 weeks using my own research and this forum.

Enough said about that!  With the points that Ark St got over Mid Ten today, I'm leaning toward S. Florida.  I totally thought Ark St. and Mid Tenn were two very even teams but home does have advantage.  I like the stats Xyberz gave and I always thought a team's Defense is always stronger when they're at home because of the crowd.  Ark St's defense was a little impressive today.


I hope you are using the term "experts" very loosely.

Give me the points, in a low scoring game it is always better to be plus points instead of minus when few points are scored.

Rutgers +10.5
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#25
Posted: 11/3/2010 1:11:28 AM
like RU for the plus 10.5
don't know about over/under.    42 is too easy for college football.

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