This is the strongest play of the first round. Kansas covers. If I lose this one, then my whole outlook on the tourney changes as it is my strongest first round play.
Good luck boys!
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This is the strongest play of the first round. Kansas covers. If I lose this one, then my whole outlook on the tourney changes as it is my strongest first round play.
Everybody knows Duke – and that is creating some value in the point spread. Duke is capturing around 20% of the bets (when factoring in Teasers and Parlays). Such an overwhelming margin suggests that the line is inflated to help the sportsbooks balance their risk – as well as maximize their profit margins.
The general “public” is betting on the famous Duke name as if there is no point spread. NCAA Round 1 games can often be blowouts between high seeds and much-lower-seeded, overmatched teams. However, more often than not, the better team breezes to victory – but can’t quite cover the point spread.
Belmont +20
Oral Roberts +9.5 over Pittsburgh
Oddsmakers at the offshore sportsbooks circled this game and told us that “smart money” is taking Oral Roberts to stay close in this game. A “big 75%” of the bets are coming in on Oral Roberts, with a “huge 95%” of the Teasers/Parlays coming in on Pittsburgh.
Even with the overwhelming “Betting Percentage” on Pittsburgh, the line has actually moved down from the opener of Pittsburgh -10 to Pittsburgh -9. As our Sports Marketwatch readers know, this is a good indicator that larger bets (big money!), and typically “smart money” is “Betting Against the Public.”
Pittsburgh started the season winning eleven games in a row, capping its run with a huge televised victory over Duke, to go 11-0. Pittsburgh made a name for itself and was one of the top-ranked teams in the nation after knocking off Duke. Since that game, they have gone a more down-to-earth 15-9. We’ll take Oral Roberts and join the side of the “smart money” and the sportsbooks – over “Joe Public.” There are still some +9.5’s.
Oral Roberts +9.5
Portland St. +22.5 over Kansas
This is another example of a “high seed” playing an overmatched opponent. We expect Kansas to win easily. Almost 80% of the bettors agree, and think that Kansas will also beat the 22.5 point spread.
However, our research and database shows that during March, this kind of scenario (large point spread, with the public loving the favorite) often favors the underdog PLUS the points. We’ll take the +22.5 points and hope that Kansas looks ahead to the rest of the tournament – in terms of more “serious” competition, resting starters, as well as protection against potential injuries.
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Belmont +20 over Duke
Everybody knows Duke – and that is creating some value in the point spread. Duke is capturing around 20% of the bets (when factoring in Teasers and Parlays). Such an overwhelming margin suggests that the line is inflated to help the sportsbooks balance their risk – as well as maximize their profit margins.
The general “public” is betting on the famous Duke name as if there is no point spread. NCAA Round 1 games can often be blowouts between high seeds and much-lower-seeded, overmatched teams. However, more often than not, the better team breezes to victory – but can’t quite cover the point spread.
Belmont +20
Oral Roberts +9.5 over Pittsburgh
Oddsmakers at the offshore sportsbooks circled this game and told us that “smart money” is taking Oral Roberts to stay close in this game. A “big 75%” of the bets are coming in on Oral Roberts, with a “huge 95%” of the Teasers/Parlays coming in on Pittsburgh.
Even with the overwhelming “Betting Percentage” on Pittsburgh, the line has actually moved down from the opener of Pittsburgh -10 to Pittsburgh -9. As our Sports Marketwatch readers know, this is a good indicator that larger bets (big money!), and typically “smart money” is “Betting Against the Public.”
Pittsburgh started the season winning eleven games in a row, capping its run with a huge televised victory over Duke, to go 11-0. Pittsburgh made a name for itself and was one of the top-ranked teams in the nation after knocking off Duke. Since that game, they have gone a more down-to-earth 15-9. We’ll take Oral Roberts and join the side of the “smart money” and the sportsbooks – over “Joe Public.” There are still some +9.5’s.
Oral Roberts +9.5
Portland St. +22.5 over Kansas
This is another example of a “high seed” playing an overmatched opponent. We expect Kansas to win easily. Almost 80% of the bettors agree, and think that Kansas will also beat the 22.5 point spread.
However, our research and database shows that during March, this kind of scenario (large point spread, with the public loving the favorite) often favors the underdog PLUS the points. We’ll take the +22.5 points and hope that Kansas looks ahead to the rest of the tournament – in terms of more “serious” competition, resting starters, as well as protection against potential injuries.
Kansas will hold the Vikes to under 60. And also they'll pull their starters if up by 20 with 4 to play. All in All...I'm going under. Good luck fellas. Its a great day.
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Kansas will hold the Vikes to under 60. And also they'll pull their starters if up by 20 with 4 to play. All in All...I'm going under. Good luck fellas. Its a great day.
my only advice to everyone here is that 3 of the 4 number one seeds will cover. if you bet this one bet them all.. last year i made a ton of money betting on the 1 seeds in the early match ups
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my only advice to everyone here is that 3 of the 4 number one seeds will cover. if you bet this one bet them all.. last year i made a ton of money betting on the 1 seeds in the early match ups
This is another example of a “high seed” playing an overmatched opponent. We expect Kansas to win easily. Almost 80% of the bettors agree, and think that Kansas will also beat the 22.5 point spread.
However, our research and database shows that during March, this kind of scenario (large point spread, with the public loving the favorite) often favors the underdog PLUS the points. We’ll take the +22.5 points and hope that Kansas looks ahead to the rest of the tournament – in terms of more “serious” competition, resting starters, as well as protection against potential injuries.
Showtime, your logic on Kansas is 180% spun around. Look ahead? LOOK AHEAD? You have to be kidding me if you have seen the last three Kansas tourney years. They (Kansas players) have already mentioned they have the last three years of the tourney fresh in their minds and will be playing as if to avenge all three of those years, esp. the losses against #14 and #13 seeds. They will be playing mean and greedy and will not allow a five-footer to even have half a game he's used to. By the time Kansas pulls its starters, they will be up by well over 30 and then Portland State will also pull their starters as to give their bench some tourney glory and serve as a great recruiting tool.
And you can throw out your "March database" as regular games during March and March tourney games are night-and-day different in approach.
GL on your other wagers though!
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Quote Originally Posted by showtime0811:
Portland St. +22.5 over Kansas
This is another example of a “high seed” playing an overmatched opponent. We expect Kansas to win easily. Almost 80% of the bettors agree, and think that Kansas will also beat the 22.5 point spread.
However, our research and database shows that during March, this kind of scenario (large point spread, with the public loving the favorite) often favors the underdog PLUS the points. We’ll take the +22.5 points and hope that Kansas looks ahead to the rest of the tournament – in terms of more “serious” competition, resting starters, as well as protection against potential injuries.
Showtime, your logic on Kansas is 180% spun around. Look ahead? LOOK AHEAD? You have to be kidding me if you have seen the last three Kansas tourney years. They (Kansas players) have already mentioned they have the last three years of the tourney fresh in their minds and will be playing as if to avenge all three of those years, esp. the losses against #14 and #13 seeds. They will be playing mean and greedy and will not allow a five-footer to even have half a game he's used to. By the time Kansas pulls its starters, they will be up by well over 30 and then Portland State will also pull their starters as to give their bench some tourney glory and serve as a great recruiting tool.
And you can throw out your "March database" as regular games during March and March tourney games are night-and-day different in approach.
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