Texas has the #1 defense in the nation. #1 in Effective FG% at 39.9%. #1 in 2P% at 39.3. #3 in the nation in 3P% at 27.9%.
Now, I'm usually not a fan of OVERALL stats because it involves their non-conference schedule. I think too many people look at trends and stats and don't explore the REAL story. They may be all that I stated above, but CONFERENCE stats show a BETTER picture of how the team is doing playing teams more of their caliber.
In conference, there are many stats that get EVEN better than they are overall. Can't really say much of the same for Oklahoma St.
Texas is even better in conference in 3P% at 23.2%, they shoot the 3-ball even better at 40.2%, and they're 2P% is 52.5%.
Texas very seldom gets blocked by other defenses and very seldom turn the ball over or get stolen from.
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Texas is 15-5 ATS, which means that they are EXCEEDING what oddsmakers believe they should be winning by at a rate of 3-1.
Oklahoma isn't UNDERACHIEVING compared to other teams that they've played, sitting at 10-8-1 ATS.
I hold ATS records highly, but these ATS records DO NOT conflict. I like when the team I'm betting on is OVERACHIEVING while the other is a DISAPPOINTMENT to their expectations of analysts, fans, and most importantly,..oddsmakers.
In conference Texas has won by DOUBLE-DIGITS IN 9 OUT OF THEY'RE 10 CONFERENCE GAMES. And their last game against Baylor was off by one point; they won by 9 points to Baylor.
The closest win after that was when they BEAT the Kansas Jayhawks ON THEIR COURT by 11 points. That is DEFINITELY saying something about this Texas team.
Now, AGAINST all that, there is Oklahoma St's margin of win/loses IN CONFERENCE. Oklahoma St only had ONE really bad loss, which was against Texas A&M losing by 23 points. Other than that, they've won some good games while only losing by SINGLE DIGITS.
Where is Texas' weakness?? FREE THROWS. Not they're strong point. Texas shoots 64.5% in conf. and Oklahoma St. shoots 74% in conf.
I knew that a Texas team going 15-5 ATS would one day get INFLATED spreads, and THIS one seems to be just that IMO.
Texas is favored at a spread of -15. Can you see Texas winning by 20? or Oklahoma losing by 10?
Texas won by 15 on their court, so add in the home-court advantage points and Texas covers the spread, but still not too sure about this spread.
A spread that I DO like is the 1st half line of Texas -8.5.
Texas' conference 1st half Points For is 37.2 and give up only 25.7 pts on defence. That's an 11.5 avg margin of victory in the 1st half. Oklahoma St's avg 1st-half margin is -2.
The only time Texas was down at halftime was AWAY at Kansas.
Out of the 10 conference games, they have been up by over 8.5 on 7 occassions; Kansas, Oklahoma, AND Oklahoma St. (away).
Texas' avg margin for the 2nd half is 5.7 pts.
Now that I've checked out the 1st-half stats and have watched Texas a few times get a little conservative with their leads, I'd have to say that the 1st-half line of -8.5 looks rather lucrative.
I'll take Texas 1st Half -8.5.
Best Of Luck to Everyone.
TexasD