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BELMONT WED 10/4 WINNERS!!

Forum: Horse Racing
Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: BELMONT WED 10/4 WINNERS!!
Knicks950 PM Knicks950
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 44
 
Knicks950
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Posted: 10/3/2017 5:33:44 PM
BELMONT 10/4

***Race 1: 3-4-2-5 I think if ZAP ZAP ZAP takes to the added distance he should control the race and win. Going :45 flat half mile at 6.5f is a totally differnt ballgame than going the :24 :48 he's gonna go today most likely being clear on the lead. D'AMBROSIO I'm not sure how good he actually is, but is more proven to enjoy this one turn distance and definitely could improve. His trip in Toga was terrible and you couldnt be wide and be there late on that 9f demanding course.  
WIN: 3
EXACTA: 3/4
PICK 5: 3/2,4,5/2,4/all/4 $36

*Race 2: 2-5-4-7 Trusting Mott with this one. LENGTH looks like a big time pedigree and should improve with each start. When he ran last on Sep9 the track was playing much different than now. Also was first time with blinkers and lugged in a bit late. Never was a huge fan of POUNDS TO PENNIES, but she did finish very strong at Suffolk last out, and horses like that run well next time usually. Curious where the pace is gonna come from though. Could see LENGTH deciding to sit off and save her kick for late, or could see making the pace with potentially WAKE ISLAND and EQUALITYFORALL. 
EXACTA: 2,5 BOX
TRIFECTA: 2,5/4/2,5,7

***Race 3: 2-4-5-1 Probably CARLINO wins easy. Something smells fishy about the favorite though. I'm gonna take a shot against with GOING STRONG for Contessa who I think made a sharp claim here. After laying off for three months, he brings it back at 6.5f and really finished well without being asked a ton, almost like it was a little bit of a prep. Now he fires back 10 days later at a mile in a short field that could be looked at very confidently from a connection betting standpoint with only one horse to beat. Also note that CARLINO has not worked since his last start which isnt the greatest sign. Another reason I'm leaning GOING STRONG is because despite only being an 8% trainer, Irad is 14% when riding for this outfit which is interesting. 
*WIN: 2
EXACTA: 2/4
 
*Race 4: 3-8-11-4 HOPONTHEBUSGUS gets back to the Belmont course he likes most and gets some more room for a Rudy Rod barn thats just about to get going. I think he could sit more forward and have a good run against a very suspect group. After him, I really could go many different ways.  TRANSACTION TAX might be in a vulnerable spot not controlling the race on this cutback. Plus, I've never been a big fan of this horse and Chad looks to have no problem parting with her. That being said, she is still a potential winner for sequence plays and should be used defensively. 
WIN: 3

*****Race 5: 4-5-3 I think BOULE is the class of this short field. Broke poorly and has shown ability to go to lead, so I expect her to be forwardly placed in here. Someone is gonna have to run her down, and I just see this filly liking going longer and winning fairly easily.
WIN: 4
TRIFECTA: 4/3/5

Knicks950 PM Knicks950
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 44
 
Knicks950
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Prospect
Posted: 10/3/2017 5:36:16 PM
*Race 6: 2-3-1-9-6-12 This race really looks to lack early speed. It looks like HAVANA AFFAIR could get aggressive with Nik Juarez with the only other speed being RECONSIDER IT for the 0-49 John Hertler barn. It looks like HAVANA AFFAIR is headed in the right direction in the Zito barn and she really ran great first time going long on the turf. Now goes one turn with a favorable pace scenario and turf condition and has more of an improvement angle than anyone else. No chance at the 10/1ml but to me is the best bet. If the pace is honest, COREY Q and GRAND BANKS look to be the two running late. In a junky race like this, I'd go with the all or nothing approach and do the exacta with HAVANA on top, and for sequences go half the field to get out as written above. 
WIN: 2
EXACTA: 2/1,3,6,9

**Race 7: 6-4-1a-5  I like how Nevin stretches AREWEHAVINGFUNYET out to the one turn mile and has worked 4 times since the Aug23 start where she aimlessly chased the lone speed and was 7 in front of third. 3rd start off the claim and moves up to 25k level from 16k which is another positive sign. Should sit a nice forward trip as well long as Manny doesnt have her too wide.
WIN: 6

**Race 8: 8-3-2-6  BROKEN BORDER definitely the horse to beat and got Beer's best bet of the day. definitely wants one turn and was sharp both times this trip at Belmont. Up for claim and dont know if the value will be there. My pick is PAZ THE BOURBON who I think is on the improve and this 7f will hit her right in the mouth. Love how she was coming with her best foot late, and I expect a big effort off what should be an honest pace. DRIVEN BY SPEED is a capable winner but I dont trust her wiring the field with the presence of the 12 and 6. FIRST APPEAL is the horse on the improve of the two Linda Rice entries and I give an outside chance cause of how good she is in turf sprints. 
WIN: 8
EXACTA: 3,8 BOX. 

Race 9: 2-3-1-5 By far my least favorite race on the card. very tough to figure, but my best bet was going with the horse claimed off a layoff. In a field this weak, I want one who you expect to offer a big effort with new training tactics. DADDYISDOOLEY offers the most upside.


I welcome any comments, opinions/views  

GL To All!
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