Posted: 10/3/2017 5:33:44 PM
***Race 1: 3-4-2-5 I think if ZAP ZAP ZAP takes to the added distance he should control the race and win. Going :45 flat half mile at 6.5f is a totally differnt ballgame than going the :24 :48 he's gonna go today most likely being clear on the lead. D'AMBROSIO I'm not sure how good he actually is, but is more proven to enjoy this one turn distance and definitely could improve. His trip in Toga was terrible and you couldnt be wide and be there late on that 9f demanding course.
PICK 5: 3/2,4,5/2,4/all/4 $36
*Race 2: 2-5-4-7 Trusting Mott with this one. LENGTH looks like a big time pedigree and should improve with each start. When he ran last on Sep9 the track was playing much different than now. Also was first time with blinkers and lugged in a bit late. Never was a huge fan of POUNDS TO PENNIES, but she did finish very strong at Suffolk last out, and horses like that run well next time usually. Curious where the pace is gonna come from though. Could see LENGTH deciding to sit off and save her kick for late, or could see making the pace with potentially WAKE ISLAND and EQUALITYFORALL.
EXACTA: 2,5 BOX
***Race 3: 2-4-5-1 Probably CARLINO wins easy. Something smells fishy about the favorite though. I'm gonna take a shot against with GOING STRONG for Contessa who I think made a sharp claim here. After laying off for three months, he brings it back at 6.5f and really finished well without being asked a ton, almost like it was a little bit of a prep. Now he fires back 10 days later at a mile in a short field that could be looked at very confidently from a connection betting standpoint with only one horse to beat. Also note that CARLINO has not worked since his last start which isnt the greatest sign. Another reason I'm leaning GOING STRONG is because despite only being an 8% trainer, Irad is 14% when riding for this outfit which is interesting.
*Race 4: 3-8-11-4 HOPONTHEBUSGUS gets back to the Belmont course he likes most and gets some more room for a Rudy Rod barn thats just about to get going. I think he could sit more forward and have a good run against a very suspect group. After him, I really could go many different ways. TRANSACTION TAX might be in a vulnerable spot not controlling the race on this cutback. Plus, I've never been a big fan of this horse and Chad looks to have no problem parting with her. That being said, she is still a potential winner for sequence plays and should be used defensively.
*****Race 5: 4-5-3 I think BOULE is the class of this short field. Broke poorly and has shown ability to go to lead, so I expect her to be forwardly placed in here. Someone is gonna have to run her down, and I just see this filly liking going longer and winning fairly easily.