Belmont Park - 6/10

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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Belmont Park - 6/10
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/8/2017 7:40:34 PM
race 11

G1 Belmont Stakes 3YO 12F 

not sure how or if I will play this race so I'll just put down some notes.  unlikely i am around here at that time on Saturday but maybe earlier in the card for some idiotic comments and analysis.  i don't really like any of them truthfully.  might play a tribox and toss both top choices.  my "top choice" would be 10. 

1 - just don't see it.  i know the trainer is extremely solid and he has had 7 weeks to grow and mature but he would have to improve massively.  six spins with three as a 3YO maybe we already know what he is.  four lengths off a 1:14 split in maryland he just seems too slow. tossing.

2 - feels like a wiseguy horse but two duds in a row and by far his best work at the same track (tampa).  red flags for me and he will be 4/1 or lower. was five clear around one turn down at gulfstream in the slop and barely held on late.  had to gut out that mile win at calder as well.  i can't get past the two duds back to back.  he didn't like CD but what about Keeneland?  or vice versa?  could be way wrong but feel he is overrated.
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/8/2017 8:07:48 PM
3 - 3YO figs are worse than his 2YO.  up the track in Louisville. won the SA derby at 9F but it was a very slow race.  just doesn't look to me like he is heading the right way.  i'll let him beat me.

4 - take away that 102 on the innah and what is left?  nothing. horrible in the derby and he has been up the track more than once. two duds in a row now I can't trust him.  i'm not playing straight but i suppose could consider as a clunk up option for the show.
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/8/2017 8:14:58 PM
5 - was all out fighting for his life just three weeks ago to get the approval to come here by winning that N1X (stern urging).  the two races before that (G3 and G2) show he was way off modest paces and didn't make up much ground late at all.  looks like he is thrown in here just to take a swing for the fences.  i don't see the projected improvement and i can see him quite a ways back at the half mile pole with a ton of work to do late.  

6 - looks like the most reliable of this group.  but let's face it he is what he is.  he keeps plugging away and grinding away and never skips a dance i'll assume he is healthy and ready to go.  would throw in a tri if i play one.  if literally no other horse improves he is your winner.
mikeyp1 PM mikeyp1
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Posted: 6/8/2017 8:22:27 PM
keep it coming AT....solid observations
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/8/2017 8:34:48 PM
7 - likely fav.  to me this horse comes down to if you believe that fig from the Wood.  the track was rated fast and they go 1:37 and change and 1:51 for 9F.  i'm saying that fig is inflated by at least five points. so take away his holy bull and he doesn't look like any kind of superstar.  i have no idea why he just totally crumbled in louisville.  i am fading and hoping he is out of the tri.  i don't likebetting on a bounce back to top form when he has folded up more than just once.  again, i could be way off.

8 - seems to be heading the right way but after nine spins can we expect another big move forward.  i doubt it.  also, he will be way, way back heading for home needing to make up a ton of ground.  
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/8/2017 9:31:22 PM
9 - pretty obvious what the strategy here is which is to try and wire this field by going up front and setting a soft pace. if only life were that easy. folded late going 7/8ths and 9F.  has a "nice win" going 9K at Keeneland but I take that one with a huge grain of salt.  muddy track, seven horse field, won by daylight against virgins maybe he was the only one that liked the mud. tossing.

10 - as i stated my "top pick" if you will which doesn't mean i love this horse by any means.  just looks to me that in this situation and under these circumstances he could be ready to make a move forward.  he's consistently eager and willing to pass horses. the chicago and FG last one he wasn't that far off the clip and now adds shades.  breeding would seem to suggest he's the worst candidate for this distance but  he keeps putting in decent efforts.  if most of them quit late will he just keep plugging away????  wouldn't be shocked if he beats those paired up 94s which might do it unless another one freaks 
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/8/2017 9:36:14 PM
11 - thought he was too slow before i saw he could be damaged goods. tossing.
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/8/2017 9:52:29 PM
12 - this is a horse i could see improving.  enough to win i have no idea.  looks to me like it was a rush job to try and get into the derby.  i could understand if he broke his maiden by a dozen lengths and ran high 90's but his maiden win was solid but not great and they wanted those points and went in the LA derby. he was awful in the ky derby but i don't hold that against him too much.  had five weeks since then and a smaller field here.  still don't know how good he is but looks like he could improve.  mom was 2/2 dirt routes and one sib was effective routing on dirt. if i play a tri i'm using him.
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/9/2017 10:51:01 AM
race 10

6 WP

8/1 ml. pattern, pace, distance, surface. taking a solid stab here and hoping this guy is ignored on the tote with all the "sexy" contenders. i see this group filled with legit and solid G1 turf males but I don't see any Flintshires in here.  i'm on this 6YO german bred that is a rock solid 9/15 lifetime and off a dud last out on very moist weeds. last out off a fairly long layoff, different pilot, and wet green and he missed by five in a G1. liked the way he moved on that turf rated firm three back and thinking he is here for that reason among others and also 2nd off the pine. don't see him too far of the pace either and ready to kick it in late. good distance for him. green should be firm saturday. racing post ratings suggest he's right there on speed with this crew and he also drops 8 lbs and grabs the meds. i'll take a shot and see what happens. 1.25 units.
Tygermyke PM Tygermyke
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Posted: 6/9/2017 12:55:02 PM
Good stuff, Atlas.  I have no idea which way I'm going right now except that Looking at Lee will be somewhere in my boxes.
Jr315 PM Jr315
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Posted: 6/9/2017 1:18:44 PM

Atlas, as of today I agree with your choice with the #10. Blinkers on can only help?  He's always closing and has won a Grade 3.


atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/9/2017 4:03:36 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Jr315:

Atlas, as of today I agree with your choice with the #10. Blinkers on can only help?  He's always closing and has won a Grade 3.



seems to keep trying at least and heading in the right direction.  more than we can say for over half the field.  12F a wild card hopefully his heart doesn't explode at the sixteenth.
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/9/2017 4:07:17 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Tygermyke:

Good stuff, Atlas.  I have no idea which way I'm going right now except that Looking at Lee will be somewhere in my boxes.

good luck Tyger

good to see you.
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/9/2017 4:13:43 PM
race 6

2 WP

6/1 ml. recency, late speed, pattern. a couple real sizzlers in here should be out in front to set up yet again a potential crazy finish in one of these loaded turf dashes.  really like how this 5YO has been effective at 7/8ths and now cuts back to this 6F off a 99 fig last out at 7/8ths. just missed in this race last year and can get up in time at this shorter trip but he can't wait forever and can't get blocked. ran 101 and 102 at 5.5F and 6F with "good finish" in comments both times. four consistent maintenance drills since the last first time with Clement who is 23% 2nd off the break and 26% in turf sprints. others have popped some slightly higher figs but feel this guy is well within range and can mow them all down late if he fires and gets a decent trip.  1.00 units. 
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/9/2017 4:17:27 PM
correction 2nd with cc. typo
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/9/2017 4:32:52 PM
race 5 - passing.

would try and beat Songbirdie off this layoff IF there were one or two to pressure her up front.  the 7 could try but end up fried at the end as she has yet to prove herself at this trip. considered 6 as a clunk up closer but not sure anyone can pressure the birdie so in short a terrible race enjoy the 1/9 
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/9/2017 9:24:03 PM
race 8

7 WP

8/1 ml. recency, late speed, pace, pattern. relatively small field here for a G1 on turf but some solid gals in there. I am playing this as a potential pressure cooker up front with the 5 and 6 both trying to take the field all the way up front.  hopefully that creates an opportunity for a closer.  the 7 made her first start in America in an N2X where she started poorly, kinda loped around, and then really turned it on late.  maybe a key turning point.  they placed her in high level events four straight in France after romping in her first two but she fell apart in all four.  clearly something was wrong with her.  I'm on her here for the upset 2nd time off the break and off a 31-60 day gap (28% for Brown), with six solid drills between, and with a massive move up in class. it's possible she is coming into her best performance ever and that is why she is in this race. Castellano can break her from the outside and hang out in the back and see what she's got in the lane late.  i'll jump on to find out if she's good enough. 1.00 units.   
pittsburghphil PM pittsburghphil
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Posted: 6/9/2017 9:25:02 PM
atlas  ..  good to  see..   great stuff
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/9/2017 9:32:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by pittsburghphil:

atlas  ..  good to  see..   great stuff

phil  good luck tomorrow.
venezolanisimo PM venezolanisimo
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Posted: 6/10/2017 1:48:40 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

race 6

2 WP

6/1 ml. recency, late speed, pattern. a couple real sizzlers in here should be out in front to set up yet again a potential crazy finish in one of these loaded turf dashes.  really like how this 5YO has been effective at 7/8ths and now cuts back to this 6F off a 99 fig last out at 7/8ths. just missed in this race last year and can get up in time at this shorter trip but he can't wait forever and can't get blocked. ran 101 and 102 at 5.5F and 6F with "good finish" in comments both times. four consistent maintenance drills since the last first time with Clement who is 23% 2nd off the break and 26% in turf sprints. others have popped some slightly higher figs but feel this guy is well within range and can mow them all down late if he fires and gets a decent trip.  1.00 units. 
 BOL  10-2 EX for me 
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/10/2017 11:39:27 AM
race 4

8 WP

4/1 ml. recency, late speed, stamina, distance. nothing sexy here and i realize she is gonna get bet but should be 3rd choice. got roughed up legit in the Oaks but still kept trying thinking that a) she benefits from the one turn long stretch run flat mile, b) gets to sit behind the others fighting in front of her, and c) should have plenty of gas in the tank late to grind this out. 1.00 units.
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/10/2017 11:45:03 AM
race 3 - passing. looks like a $5 exacta.
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/10/2017 1:44:42 PM
race 9

12 WP

6/1 ml. recency, late speed, pattern. hoping this guy gets ignored on the board maybe he'll be 9/1ish. playing a continuation of the change in pattern to a one run, strong closer around one turn.  last two at 7/8ths facing tough horses he's been moving very nicely late after settling early and same jock back here and we get the one turn mile. got a few in here (including two favs) that like to get out early so rosario will let them do just that and make one big and sustained run.  will need to improve he's a 4YO with a new lease on life with the new style/distance and has been around two turns plenty of times so expecting him to be able to get to this 8F.  tough race we shall see. 1.00 units.
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/10/2017 1:45:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

race 4

8 WP

4/1 ml. recency, late speed, stamina, distance. nothing sexy here and i realize she is gonna get bet but should be 3rd choice. got roughed up legit in the Oaks but still kept trying thinking that a) she benefits from the one turn long stretch run flat mile, b) gets to sit behind the others fighting in front of her, and c) should have plenty of gas in the tank late to grind this out. 1.00 units.

2nd at 2/1 
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/10/2017 1:49:11 PM
back to the Metropolitan Handicap - yes I see baffert's horse there with higher figs as a 4YO now but this is a much tougher crew so let's see if he regresses a bit (impossible some say).  plus he's got navarro's horse off that break who's a real early and middle sizzler and likely drugged up more than lane staley unfortunately was his entire life so we will let them duke it out up front with a couple others.  
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