What an excellent field they’ve put together for this one starting with three of the top ranked 3-year olds in the country.
Led by Dortmund, top ranked in drf.com’s Derby Watch list, the field includes Ocho Ocho Ocho and Prospect Park. Lord Nelson and Bolo are no slouches and capable of the win. With 7 or 8 speed demons in this, I expect to see more bumping and grinding upfront than in “50 Shades of Gray!”
#1 Lord Nelson…..The Baffert-trained son of Pulpit is a good one, but needs to improve as he’s been beaten by the would-be elites, including American Pharaoh and El Kabeir (today’s Gotham fave). He beat Texas Red (also finished 4th behind TR’s 3rd place, early on) and Kantune, a formidable colt. He won the San Vicente last out and competes today in his 4th stakes race of 6th lifetime spots. A win today isn’t out of the question if he continues to improve with Bejarano, his San Vicente rider, in a poor post at 4-1 ML.
#2 Ocho Ocho Ocho…..He is 3 for 3 lifetime for veteran trainer James Cassidy with Mike Smith handling. "Three-8’s" has the speed to burn and could get out of the gate to hold on for hope. He makes his 3-year old debut with the work a jaw-dropper. He also beat highly regarded Far Right and Mr. Z last time. I think you might see a dual at the end with the one who is favored……
#3 Dortmund……What a colt this son of Big Brown is for Baffert. Four wins in four starts and a speed demon that looks like he can run all day long. Marty Garcia has been his clicker all the way and I envision Rafael doing micro-surgery with Dortmund in an upfront mosh pit with Ocho, Prospect Park, Sir Samson, Pain and Misery and Bolo.
#6 Prospect Park…..A highly touted colt, I am having a some thought as to why this guy is considered in the upper echelon team photo. Sure, he’s won 2 of 5 races; he’s out of Tapit. Yet, he hasn’t run in a graded stakes or an ALW race; he won an $80K O/C last out for non-winner’s of one, and ran in three $56K maiden’s in his first career races. Worse for me is that he doesn’t appear to be nearly as fast as most of these. All of this said, he had great improvement last time and looks to build big-time today. So do 3 or 4 others here. Use all of your handicapping powers……..
#7 Bolo……Don’t underestimate the skills of trainer Carla Gaines, who gates the lad in his 3-year old Quincienera with Victor E up-top. With the highest speed figure of any of these, Bolo is 6-1 on the ML. While he has no graded stakes or even ALW experience, I think he might be the one who shows the most improvement. I don’t think he wins this today, but the race will be a great set-up for the rest of the trail, if he comes out of this whole. Note: Smith took off Bolo for Ocho (first call?) and that might count for something.