Well, cappers and cappets, it’s a totally different race now that I’ll Have Another is out.
I touted Dullahan as the winner of the Belmont about, oh, maybe 2 seconds after he crossed the finish line with a rush in the Kentucky Derby.
Sure….the Dale Romans colt was accused of passing dead ones at the end and, indeed, a few were DOA because they couldn’t make 1-1/4 miles distance. However, I didn’t concentrate on the carnage. I watched a horse that looked like he could go another ¼-mile if he had to. And, Dullahan looked good doing it in the final furlong.
To me, the son of Even the Score (Unbirdled’s Song) is a real horse with real finish and class.
So now I have to ask the question. Will Dullahan be the same horse he would have been had I’ll Have Another remaind in the race?
Perhaps not and here’s why. Many trainers will tell you that some horses need a target. Dullahan, by form, looks to me like a horse that needs a target. Just take a look at his last 5 races. He zoned in on the leaders in each one with the leaders in each race ahead of him. I say that I’ll Have Another would have been that large. In addition, I don’t think there is a single horse in this field capable of holding a lead for the final ¼-mile near or in the lead out of the first turn.
Based on my theory, with IHA out, who would the target be?
My guess is that it will be Paynter, who might not be there at the end, but will run big. After all, he’s a Baffert from SoCal who’s shown well in every race. Lest we forget that the Californians have dominated the first two races of this tourney.
But is Paynter good enough to win? I don’t think so, although his two career losses were by a total of 5-1/4 lengths mostly in shorter fields. Check his SA Derby for class as his 8-1 ML is as much respect for coming from the west coast as it is for being trained by Bob B. He ran well at Churchill in the Trial losing to Hierro and he won in a short field at Pimlico, but not against the closing Dullahan and, perhaps, Mr. Adonis and Optimizer (I can’t believe I just wrote that) where I think he will be tested in the final furlong.